Orban Has Done It Again. There Are Four Ways to Stop Him

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban has done it again: last Thursday, Hungary blocked the final document of the European Union summit in support of Ukraine.

It is worth noting that as a result, 26 heads of state and government of the European Union adopted a declaration calling for "immediately intensified efforts to meet Ukraine's urgent military and defense needs." In addition, it should be emphasized that Hungary had already vetoed a document related to support for Ukraine at the European Council summit on March 6. Then the declaration was also adopted on behalf of 26 countries. It should also be noted that before that, Budapest blocked the allocation of military aid to Ukraine from the European Union in the amount of 20 billion euros.

At the same time, Hungary proposes to create a buffer zone from Ukraine between the European Union and the Russian Federation. "We do not believe that the integration of Ukraine into the defense structures of the European Union will contribute to the security of Europe. Instead, it is worth noting the fact that we see the need to create a buffer zone between the Russian Federation and European defense structures, which would meet the interests of both Europe and the Russian Federation," said Minister for European Affairs Janos Bock in an interview with the British and international daily business newspaper The Financial Times.

In addition, speaking on this topic, it should be said that earlier, due to Hungary's objections, the first negotiating cluster on Ukraine's accession to the European Union was never opened. It is also important that the Advisor to the Hungarian Prime Minister Balazs Orban stated that Budapest politicians would block the opening of these clusters until they held "consultations" with the population on this issue. Taking into account all the mentioned facts, it is worth recalling that Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban announced a referendum in Hungary on Hungarians' support for Ukraine's membership in the European Union. It is worth emphasizing the fact that the referendum will not have legal force but will become a means of political pressure on the European Council for Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban.

It is also important that the head of the Hungarian Foreign Ministry, Peter Szijjártó, said that his country will not lift the veto on Ukraine's admission to the European Union until the Hungarian minority in Transcarpathia is given back its rights. Although it is worth remembering the fact that when Kyiv offers Budapest to discuss the steps taken by Ukraine to implement 11 points of the Hungarian list, which concern the protection of the rights of national minorities, the Hungarian side refuses. "Ukraine wants to talk to Hungary. But the Hungarians, by all indications, are not interested in a constructive dialogue that can bring about a solution to pressing issues," a source from the Ukrainian authorities told ZN.UA.

A logical question arises: What is happening? Why is Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban destroying the unity of the European Union?

One of the explanations for his behaviour, which is difficult to explain at first glance, can be called the fact that Ukraine has become an instrument of pressure on the European Union.

Strengthening authoritarianism, violating human rights, ignoring the rule of law, limiting the independence of the judiciary and media freedoms, growing corruption - these are the features that Hungary has acquired during the fifteen years of the country's governance by Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban. In addition, it is necessary to emphasize the important fact that in order to strengthen his power, he uses anti-Brussels rhetoric: he declares the protection of national sovereignty, criticizes the "liberal" policy of the European Council, that is, one that follows such a philosophical and socio-political direction that proclaims the inviolability of human rights and freedoms. It is also important to note the fact that Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, in order to strengthen his power, calls for the expulsion of "Soros agents" from the European Commission. Thus, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban demands the removal of agents of the creator of a network of organizations known as the "Soros Foundation". In this regard, it should be said that the domestic policy of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban causes protests from political leaders in Brussels and has led to the European Union imposing sanctions against Budapest, including freezing part of the funding from EU funds. In order to strengthen Hungary's position in Europe and achieve the resumption of funding, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban often uses the complex and ambiguous issue of Ukraine, its financial and military support and complex situation in the social and economic plan as an instrument of pressure on the European Union.

In addition, another explanation for why Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban behaves in this way and allows the problem to be solved in this way is that Viktor Orban is playing along with the crowd. It means that he is putting on a show for the public. The fact is that Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban wants to produce the desired effect on the domestic Hungarian audience in order to achieve his goals. Speaking on this topic, it is worth remembering the fact that there is only a year left for the parliamentary elections. And if he constantly makes such loud statements in front of the citizens of his own country and behaves in such a scandalous manner, allowing himself such statements on important topics, in this case, the Prime Minister of Hungary Viktor Orban may not be worried about the possible decline in his own popularity and the ratings of his political force. It is worth noting the fact that according to the March poll of the Medián Institute, 46% of respondents would vote for the opposition party "Tisza" led by Péter Magyar, while only 37% of citizens would vote for the ruling party "Fidesz" (Fidesz – Hungarian Civic Alliance). In addition, 56% of respondents said they would welcome a change of government, while 35% of citizens who took part in the poll would prefer that the cabinet of Prime Minister of Hungary Viktor Orban continue to work after the elections.

It is worth noting the fact that Péter Magyar promises to fight corruption, reduce inflation, increase social benefits, strengthen freedom of speech and democratic institutions, as well as restore Hungary's relations with the European Union. But at the same time, it should be noted that the main opponent of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban takes a cautious position with regard to the Russian Federation and Ukraine. Thus, last summer he said that he is against sending Hungarian troops or weapons to Ukraine, although he considers the Russian Federation an aggressor. In addition, Péter Magyar recently stated that Ukraine has no chance of becoming a member of the European Union in the next few decades.

It should be said that preparations for the election campaign are already underway. It is worth emphasizing the fact that tens of thousands of people came to the last opposition rally in Budapest, wanting changes in their country's policy. Thus, the people of the country want change not only in the domestic policy of their country, where democracy is curtailed and autocratic tendencies are gaining strength, but also in the foreign policy, where Hungary is quarrelling with the European Union and getting closer to the Russian Federation. And this fact frightens the opponent of the Prime Minister of Hungary Viktor Orban, who has become accustomed to the prime minister's chair over many years.

Trying by all means to maintain his power in Hungary and strengthen his position in the confrontation with the European Union, the Prime Minister of Hungary Orban uses Ukraine, namely its difficult socio-economic situation and the fact that it suffers many losses in various areas of the economy, as a means to maintain popularity. In addition, it must be said that Hungary, in order to strengthen its political positions, uses the difficult situation of a full-scale invasion as a means to maintain popularity, accusing our country of infringing on the rights of Hungarians living in Transcarpathia. Thus, Hungarian Prime Minister Orban demands an immediate peace treaty between Kyiv and Moscow, exaggerates the costs that Hungary and the Hungarian economy must spend because of the Russian Federation's war against Ukraine, and insists on lifting sanctions against the Russian Federation.

"The European Union without Ukraine" is one of the twelve points in the list of demands of Hungarian Prime Minister Orban to the European Union on behalf of the "Hungarian nation", published by him on the social network X. It is worth noting the fact that in his numerous interviews, Hungarian Prime Minister Orban describes the horrors that await Hungarians if our country joins the European Union. Hungarian Prime Minister Orban scares his citizens by saying that agricultural subsidies for Hungarian farmers will be cut several times, and Ukraine's membership will cost 500 thousand forints (approx. $ 1.35 thousand) per family per year.

If earlier Hungary only opposed Ukraine's membership in the European Union, now Budapest is blocking all issues concerning our country. Some time ago, the European Union believed that they knew how to deal with the Hungarian opposition. That is, European leaders and functionaries of the European Commission thought that they would be able to reach an agreement with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, having learned what he wanted, partially satisfying his wishes and thus resolving the issue and achieving their intended goals to resolve the ambiguous situation. It must be said that Europeans currently do not understand the motives of the behavior of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban.

Thus, his many ambiguous behavior and statements increase suspicions that he is acting in coordination with the Russian Federation. It must be emphasized that the scandalous behaviour of Hungary is destroying the European Union, which is already going through difficult times. But the question arises: how can Ukraine and the European Union prevent Hungary from sabotaging decisions that concern our country? In addition, we must also find an answer to another question: How can Ukraine and the European Union prevent the manipulations of Hungarian Prime Minister Orban, as a result of which Ukrainians and Europeans become hostages of the actions of the Hungarian Prime Minister, and the political leaders of the Kremlin get the opportunity to influence the European Union? It should be noted that the European Union does not have many opportunities to resist the blackmail of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban.

In addition, it is necessary to emphasize the fact that a few weeks ago, when due to Hungary’s position the extension of European Union sanctions against the Russian Federation was under threat, it was Secretary of State Mark Rubio’s call to Peter Szijjártó that changed the position of the office of Hungarian Prime Minister Orbán. But it is also important to say that the politic leaders of Brussels cannot rely on Washington to restrain the will of Budapest. It should be noted that it is especially difficult for political leaders in Brussels to do this in a situation where the United States of America is getting closer to the Russian Federation and is in conflict with the European Union.

It is also worth noting that the Prime Minister of Hungary Viktor Orban constantly puts on display and is especially proud of his special relationship with the newly elected President of the United States of America Donald Trump and is trying to play on this, to use such useful connections as much and as best as possible. In addition, it must be said that the Prime Minister of Hungary presents himself as an advocate of the newly elected President of the United States of America Donald Trump in the European Union.

It must also be emphasized that, speaking about the possibilities of the Federal Republic of Germany, which has economic levers of influence on Budapest to achieve contractual social and political goals, there are also doubts that it is ready to have a beneficial influence on Hungary.

It is worth noting the fact that the European Union has four main possible options for neutralizing Hungary.

The first implies Hungary's exit from the European Union. Speaking about this option, it must be said that it is impossible to exclude it from the European Union: such a provision is not spelled out in the Treaty. It is worth saying that it is a completely different matter that Budapest may decide to follow the British path and leave the European Union. Although in the heat of controversy some European politicians are calling on Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban to do so, the Hungarian Prime Minister will not take such a step, since this would mean his political collapse. It is important to emphasize the fact that Hungary is heavily dependent on subsidies from the pan-European budget.

The second way by which the European Council wants to neutralize Hungary's influence on decision-making and the general conduct of affairs is the application of the provisions of Article 7 of the Treaty on European Union, the so-called nuclear option. In particular, speaking on this topic, it must be said that the Council of the European Union, by a qualified majority, can suspend the implementation of certain rights of the violating state, including the loss of voting rights. It is worth noting that the European Union is discussing such a measure to neutralize Hungary's influence on decision-making. It is interesting to note the fact that the Hungarians themselves are not afraid that the politicians of the European Union may apply Article 7. The fact is that in Brussels and European capitals they are afraid of the consequences of such a decision. Therefore, in addition to Slovakia, in the European Union there are enough opponents of the use of such a drastic mechanism to resolve the current political situation.

The third option for containing Hungary in its influence on the adoption of important socio-political decisions is the use of sanctions against Hungary in order to indirectly force the political leaders of Budapest to vote in solidarity with other countries of the European Union.

The fourth option for influencing Hungary and containing this country is ignoring its opinion and right to vote when the European Union makes decisions on key issues. In particular, the opinion of Hungary within the framework of this point can be ignored also when the European Union makes important decisions regarding Ukraine. In addition, judging by how 26 countries adopted the last two documents in support of Ukraine, we can say that political leaders in the European Union decided to use the fourth option of pressure to contain Hungary's influence on various important socio-political decisions. Speaking on this topic, it is worth paying attention to the fact that now decisions are made by a majority and then formalized as official conclusions of the European Council on behalf of 26 countries.

It is important to note that how effective this strategy will be in the long term remains a big unsolved question. After all, it is necessary to emphasize the fact that ignoring Hungary and containing its influence on the adoption of various important decisions does not solve the problem but only masks the crisis within the European Union. It is necessary to note that the crisis that has arisen in the European Union is associated with the lack of real mechanisms to counteract countries that systematically violate the principles of unity and destroy the European Union from within. The situation is developing in this way because the Prime Minister of Hungary Viktor Orban will continue to use blackmail tools. It is necessary to emphasize the fact that he realizes that his position is beneficial not only to the Russian Federation, but also to some hidden allies within the European Union.

In this way, Hungary has become a kind of Achilles heel, the weakest link in the European Union, creating a precedent that other countries can use in the future if Brussels does not find an effective way to stop such manipulations. In the meantime, Ukraine and its European partners are forced to work under constant pressure from Budapest, hoping that political and economic levers of influence will still be able to change Viktor Orban’s behaviour.