Ukraine On The “Menu”. What Did Trump And Putin Talk About?

They had a phone call. Again.

Expectations from the conversation were high. And so were the fears: the world order is undergoing a global overhaul, which directly affects the fate of our country, the only piece of the world pie that the guys who flout the rules of good nutrition have decided to share.

As military analyst Michael Clarke noted, commenting on Volodymyr Zelenskyy's absence from the US-Russian talks, “There is an old saying in diplomatic circles: ‘If you're not at the negotiating table, you're on the menu’. And believe me, Ukraine is on the menu now.” Concerns were also fueled by Trump's announcement, who said before his conversation with Putin that the US and Russia were already discussing the “division of certain assets,” including territories and power plants.

Official information from the White House and the Kremlin about the talks, during which the US and Russian leaders “continued a detailed and frank exchange of views on the situation around Ukraine,” is scarce. If we summarize both press releases, the result of the conversation between Trump and Putin is as follows.

Firstly, Russia and Ukraine will exchange prisoners on March 19 according to the 175-for-175 formula. At the same time, Moscow will hand over 23 seriously wounded Ukrainian soldiers to Kyiv as a “goodwill gesture.”

Secondly, Putin endorsed Trump's idea of a mutual 30-day halt between Russia and Ukraine of strikes on energy infrastructure and gave a command to that effect to the military.

Thirdly, “technical negotiations will begin in the Middle East on a maritime ceasefire in the Black Sea, full ceasefire and permanent peace.”

Fourthly, the US and Russia will organize a series of matches between the National Hockey League and Kontinental Hockey League teams.

Fifthly, Trump and Putin agreed that Iran should never be able to destroy Israel.

Sixthly, “the two leaders agreed that a future with an improved bilateral relationship between the United States and Russia has huge upside. This includes enormous economic deals and geopolitical stability when peace has been achieved.”

A less-than-impressive outcome of the conversation, ahead of which White House officials radiated optimism over Putin's agreement to an unconditional 30-day ceasefire.

Trump himself was traditional in his assessment of the talks. “My phone conversation today with President Putin of Russia was very good and productive,” he wrote on his Truth Social network. However, the 47th president of the United States never appeared before the press. So, maybe the conversation wasn't so “good and productive”? After all, in fact, Putin made minor concessions without conceding the main thing.

Trump failed to convince Putin to agree to a 30-day ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine. The Russian president ignored the facile optimism of the White House chief seeking quick successes as a peacemaker and, without saying “no” directly, further tied his agreement to the 30-day ceasefire to a series of conditions unacceptable to us, namely halting mobilization in Ukraine, stopping the flow of all foreign military aid and intelligence information to Kyiv.

However, Putin made “goodwill gestures” toward Trump, making him feel like a peacemaker. Firstly, he seemingly agreed to have an exchange of prisoners of war, although Kyiv and Moscow had been preparing this step for a long time. Secondly, he declared his willingness to agree to a 30-day mutual halt between Russia and Ukraine of strikes on energy infrastructure. (In effect, the Russian president backed a proposal from the EU and Ukraine that was not at the negotiating table.) Kyiv reiterated its support for the proposal. The Russian president further stated that he had given his troops a relevant order. However, just hours after Trump and Putin spoke, the Russians struck Ukraine's civilian infrastructure.

But demonstrating his willingness to “negotiate” and “end the war,” the Kremlin master entraped the head of the White House by proposing a truce in the Black Sea. It is clear that this step cannot be taken without a general truce because a truce at sea means that Russia will return its fleet to Crimea and Ukraine will once again face a threat that we will not be able to defend ourselves against. What will happen to Mykolaiv and Odesa then? How often will the Russians launch missiles from their ships at Ukrainian cities? And yet in his fresh statement, Witkoff is already talking about the Black Sea truce as an agreed-upon point between the US and Russia.

Against such a background, the idea of holding a series of matches between NHL and KHL hockey teams looks so humane. But this proposal is dissembling, humiliating both America and all those sports federations that have suspended Russian athletes from competition because of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

The delight of Kremlin propagandists is understandable: Putin has walked all over Trump. “We all saw the predictable weakness of Trump’s diplomacy. Once again, Grandpa decided to ‘take the target’ with a rush, and once again he failed,” Pavel Pryanikov, former editor-in-chief of Russkaya Planeta said, commenting on the conversation between the two presidents. And yet Trump did not take offense, did not overreact, did not stop negotiations. Zelenskyy’s sarcasm, who expressed hope that Trump was able to press Putin on the ceasefire issue, is understandable.

The Kremlin further emphasized the humiliation of the United States in the world by recalling the “solidarity vote in the UN on the resolution regarding the Ukrainian conflict.” It only remains to add that America agreed not only together with Russia, but also with Belarus, North Korea and Iran. Where are the murderous sanctions that Trump and members of his administration have been talking about?

For anyone who thought that Putin’s rejection of the 30-day full ceasefire would anger Trump: it didn’t. The American president may not have realized the Kremlin master's sneer, but more likely, he simply ignored it as a minor point compared to the main objectives: there is a big deal being discussed between the big guys, who are allowed to say no. The little guys, on the other hand, have no such right. So Trump will start pressing Zelenskyy again, demanding more concessions on establishing a 30-day ceasefire and signing a peace agreement.

Trump calls this future peace deal a “peace contract.” And this is not by chance: everything revolves around business. And the essence of his “business plan” is as follows: Russia returns to the global economy and financial system in exchange for some kind of solution on Ukraine and financial and political preferences for the United States.

In these calculations, Ukraine is one of the “dishes” on the “menu” at the Russian-American table. More important for Putin, less so for Trump. But from the very beginning of Trump’s presidency, Ukraine has become an occasion for discussing a wider range of issues, which Washington and Moscow make no secret of. And although Putin said no to Trump, linking his proposal for a 30-day ceasefire with impossible conditions, the American president continued the negotiations, as his interest is broader. ZN.UA wrote about it long before the conversation between the American and Russian presidents took place.

Today, Putin’s demands remain as maximalist as they were two or three years ago: handing over the territory of the regions “mentioned” in the Russian Constitution — Donetsk, Lugansk, Zaporizhzhya and Kherson — to Moscow; limiting the size of the Ukrainian army; enshrining Ukraine’s neutrality in its Constitution; giving up hope for joining NATO; banning the deployment of NATO peacekeepers in Ukraine, etc. He still also wants to “devour” all of Ukraine.

So far, there is no reason to believe that Putin will make serious concessions to end the war and sign a peace agreement. And if Trump wants to end hostilities quickly, the Russian president is stalling for time, trying to get favorable concessions. The White House has already made gifts to the Kremlin when it denied Ukraine the right to become a NATO member and gave in to Russia’s demands to maintain control over occupied Ukrainian territory.

Earlier, Kyiv outlined its red lines. Firstly, the refusal to make additional territorial concessions to Russia. Secondly, the release of civilian Ukrainians who are being held in places of detention without prisoner of war status. Thirdly, security guarantees in case Russia violates the ceasefire agreement. In addition, Kyiv refuses to enshrine the rejection of NATO aspirations and limitation of the size of the army and the quality of its armament.

Today, Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that a red line for Ukraine is to recognize Ukrainian temporarily occupied territories as Russian: “We will not go for that.”

But it is obvious that Russian-American “compromises” will be achieved at the expense of Ukraine. The scenarios for us range between bad and worse: from loss of territory to limitation of sovereignty, from slashing the army to lack of security guarantees. The White House’s willingness to go along with Putin is high. According to Semafor, the Trump administration, in case of a peace deal, may also agree to officially recognize Crimea as part of Russia. Washington may also turn to the UN with a proposal to recognize the peninsula as Russian at the international level.

The “devouring” of Ukraine could be gradual: first, the cessation of strikes on energy facilities and port infrastructure, and then a ceasefire. During the ceasefire, arms deliveries to us will be stopped. And we should not hope that Trump will play with Putin by agreeing to a temporary halt in arms supplies to Ukraine, while equipment and ammunition will come from European countries. If necessary, Washington will exert pressure on Europe, whose weapons have a lot of American components.

And then, when the process becomes irreversible, Putin will say: it is necessary to eliminate all the “root causes of the Ukraine conflict.” It was for this purpose, besides his own pleasure, that Putin started the large-scale invasion of Ukraine. And the “root causes of the Ukraine conflict” are NATO’s eastward expansion: the Kremlin demands that the Alliance return to its pre-1999 borders. This means that all the countries that have joined NATO since then — Hungary, Poland, the Czech Republic and others — must leave NATO.

Ukraine has entered a lane where it is sought to be humiliated. Ignoring its legal rights, its blood, its sacrifices, its courage. But the America we knew is being humiliated today no less than our country. And only the head of the German defense ministry, Boris Pistorius, exudes hope that the time will come when Trump will understand and respond: “He will have to react, in line with the strength and reputation of the United States of America.”