Orbán 's Bargain: What Hungary Really Wants from Ukraine

Political leaders in Budapest decided that a “window of opportunity” had opened for them. And now they intend to put pressure on Kyiv and Brussels: in Budapest they are trying to maintain the isolated position of the Hungarians of Transcarpathia within the Ukrainian state and receive money from frozen funds of the European Union due to problems with the rule of law in Hungary.

After the European Commission recommended that the European Council begin negotiations on Ukraine's accession to the European Union, Budapest began to threaten to block this decision unless Kyiv changes the law on education. “Hungary’s position is absolutely clear: as long as this law exists, there can be no discussions with Ukrainians about their integration into the European Union,” said Balázs Orbán, head of the political department of the Prime Minister’s Office. Demonstrating the seriousness of its intentions, the Hungarian government announced consultations with the population to support Ukraine’s membership in the “Euroclub”. 

Budapest also does not give permission for the European Union to provide Kyiv with 500 million euros in military assistance and 50 billion euros in macro-financial assistance. But by demanding “guarantees that OTP Bank Group or any Hungarian company will not be included in the list of international war sponsors,” the government of Viktor Orbán subtly hints that the European Union “owes Hungary 3–4–5 billion euros.” At the same time, Orbán pathetically assures: “Hungary’s disagreement with the start of negotiations on Ukraine’s membership in the European Union is not a subject of bargaining. And this cannot be linked to any monetary issues.”

But both in Kyiv and in Brussels, everyone clearly understands that this is just a bargain.

As Serhii Herasymchuk, Deputy Executive Director of the Foreign Policy Council “Ukrainian Prism,” noted in a commentary to ZN.UA, “Viktor Orbán sees the importance of Ukraine for the European Union. Therefore, he uses the Ukrainian issue in relations with the European Union, bargaining for receiving money from European Union funds. In addition, taking advantage of the confusion and scandals with Ukraine, Orbán is also seeking to bargain with Brussels for something to implement his political priorities, voiced during the election campaign. In particular, the abolition of the quota for accepting migrants for Hungary or obtaining additional funding for their settlement.”

At the same time, Budapest is doing its best to slow down the adoption of new sanctions against Russia. Orbán's government is particularly vigorous when it comes to restrictive measures against nuclear power industry of the Russian Federation. And while creating obstacles on Ukraine’s path to the European Union with demands for expanded rights for the Hungarian minority, in Budapest they are also talking about the need for a “ceasefire” and peace negotiations between Kyiv and Moscow. Orbán himself is not only not against personally meeting with Putin and shaking his hand, but is also preparing to travel to Russia at the end of the year for negotiations with “Vladimir Vasilyevich.”

It is not surprising that Orbán’s actions reinforce suspicions about the existence of compromising evidence against him in the Kremlin, and Hungary itself enjoys a reputation in the European Union as a Trojan horse, destroying European unity in the interests of Putin. In this situation, how can our country remove the threat posed by the Orbán government? Will Kyiv make concessions to Budapest in an effort to unblock the start of negotiations with Brussels? Or will political leaders in Kyiv adhere to the principle that it is important for our country to defend its interests and move only forward, shifting responsibility for solving the Hungarian problem to the European Union?

Brussels and other capitals are indeed irritated by Orbán’s constant blackmail on the Ukrainian issue. Politicians in other world capitals are so tired of Budapest holding everyone hostage that they have already decided to use a “plan B” in case Hungary vetoes the aid package for Ukraine. As reported by Bloomberg and Reuters, Brussels will ask the governments of all European Union countries to develop their own aid package for Kyiv. In total, the bilateral pacts will amount to the required amount.

It is quite possible that the countries of the European Union will get tired of Orbán’s blackmail and will apply to Hungary Article 7 of the Lisbon Treaty, which provides for the suspension of the voting rights of a member state of the European Union where the rule of law is violated. This issue has been on the European Union table for a long time, and Budapest is afraid of the implementation of such a scenario.

But although Hungary, which creates problems for its Euro-Atlantic allies, is becoming increasingly isolated in the European Union and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), Orbán still feels that the European Union is ready to bargain with him. He does not seek to change his domestic policy, he is waiting for Donald Trump to win the presidential elections in the United States of America, and right-wing radicals to win in the European Parliament. And time after time he applies his blackmail tactics on the foreign policy front.

But what to do with the Hungarian leadership’s threats to block the start of negotiations on Ukraine’s accession to the European Union? How justified is the optimism of Deputy Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine Ihor Zhovkva, who said that Budapest will not interfere with Ukraine’s European integration?

Although Hungary condemns the Russian invasion of our country, joins anti-Russian sanctions and provides humanitarian assistance to Ukraine, nevertheless it does not supply us with weapons and refuses to train the Ukrainian military on its territory. In addition, in recent days, Viktor Orbán and his associates have repeated more than once: Ukraine is not ready for negotiations on joining the European Union.

In the context of the Russian-Ukrainian war and a clear interest in the earliest possible start of practical discussions on issues of joining the European Union, Kyiv has limited means of influencing Budapest. Considering the specifics of Ukrainian-Hungarian relations, the absence of the Ukrainian ambassador to Hungary (and judging by the interview with Fedir Shandor, who received preliminary consent, the president’s office should urgently look for a new candidate for the post of ambassador) and the absence of a person responsible for negotiations with Budapest in the Ukrainian government do not help to resolve the problems.

Earlier, in an interview with ZN.UA, Deputy Prime Minister for European Integration Olha Stefanishyna said that “the dialogue between Kiev and Budapest is used by the latter exclusively for bargaining with Brussels. Therefore, the primary responsibility here lies with the European institutions, the European Commission, which should not play along with individual member states.”

However, Kyiv will have to do its part and make some compromises. Of course, within the framework of common sense, international law and the protection of national interests. In particular, take into account the recommendations of the Venice Commission related to laws on the state language, national minorities, media and education. Moreover, the European Commission recommended starting negotiations on Ukraine’s accession to the European Union only after Kiev fulfills a number of conditions. Among them is the implementation of the recommendations of the Venice Commission.

As follows from conversations of the publication ZN.UA with representatives of the Ukrainian authorities, in Kyiv they proceed from the fact that the current state of affairs in the language issue differs for the better from the situation in 2016–2017. Therefore, taking into account the movement of Ukraine to the European Union, education policy can be conducted more flexibly. Judging by the latest comments of Deputy Prime Minister Olha Stefanishyna and Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine (NSDC) Oleksii Danilov, the Ukrainian government is ready to compromise with Hungary on these issues.

This is evidenced by the fact that for the first time in several years, negotiations between the Ukrainian-Hungarian intergovernmental working group on education issues took place. In September, the Ukrainian delegation handed over to its Hungarian counter-partners a plan to resolve issues of national minorities, in particular, providing for the provision of textbooks to Ukrainian Hungarians and plans to change legislation.

First Deputy Minister of Education and Science of Ukraine, co-chairman of the intergovernmental Ukrainian-Hungarian working group on education, Yevhenii Kudriavets, was optimistic in his assessment of the meeting, saying that “during the negotiations we came to a common denominator.” In addition, he said that “from our Hungarian colleagues we received the first note of support for the general plan and are now awaiting their confirmation on the technical components. Hungary today says that these are the agreements that must be implemented to support our European integration, and their implementation is now quite actively moving forward.”

The problem is that Budapest is not happy with a compromise, but with a return to the situation of 2016–2017: in its foreign policy, the Orbán government relied on upholding the rights of Hungarians living outside Hungary.

Former Deputy Prime Minister for European Integration, Head of the Parliamentary Committee for the Integration of Ukraine into the European Union Ivanna Orestivna Klympush-Tsintsadze, in a conversation with ZN.UA, noted with regret: “According to experience: much that is agreed upon at the working level is then destroyed by the political statements of members of the Orbán government. This has happened more than once in recent years, when the agreements reached by the Ukrainian and Hungarian ministers were nullified by Budapest. Therefore, I would be very careful about what was agreed upon within the working group, since this will in no way satisfy Hungary’s real claims against us.”

How fair this forecast is can be judged by the commentary of Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjártó. The other day, the Hungarian minister said: Budapest sees that Ukraine is “cynically” not going to resolve the important issue of the rights of Transcarpathian Hungarians. On the one hand, such statements show the complexity of Ukraine’s search for a way out of the current situation. But on the other hand, against the backdrop of Kyiv’s statements about its readiness to find a compromise, Budapest is demonstrating its inability to negotiate. And this strengthens our country’s position in the European Union and weakens our position in Hungary.

Read this article in Ukrainian and russian.