Trump Is Preparing "Shock and Awe". At What Price Can He End the War in Ukraine?

The inauguration of each new president of the United States of America turns into an event of a planetary scale that is commensurate with the influence of this country on global politics and the economy. However, what we could observe in the United States of America itself and the world in anticipation of Donald Trump's inauguration makes us look for other, even more expressive, epithets. Sometimes it seems that after January 20, 2025, when Donald Trump took the presidential oath, the countdown to a new period in modern history began. The world has become more unstable and dangerous for normal life. It is worth noting that many Americans associate hopes for the best with the coming to power of a new-old president who promises to put everything in order –both domestically and globally. Their hopes are shared by a considerable number of residents of other countries located in war and conflict zones. Are these expectations justified? In search of an answer to this question, let's look at what the intentions of the 47th President of the United States of America are.
It is striking that compared to 2016, when the election success came as a surprise to him, this time Donald Trump has thoroughly prepared for his new presidential term. That is, work has been done both in the field of programmatic issues and in terms of selecting personnel who are to implement his plans.
The driving force of Trump's "plan" for the United States of America and the world is his extreme confidence in his own infallibility and greatness, which have acquired almost biblical proportions after "providence" saved the then presidential candidate during an assassination attempt. I think those who, by inertia, advise "to divide everything in half" and not to take the provocative statements of the newly elected president too seriously are mistaken. I have this opinion because, unfortunately, Donald Trump's political show is increasingly transforming into real politics. It is worth noting that at the same time he is not limited to the desire inherent in all high-ranking politicians to simply leave a mark on the country's history. Donald Trump cherishes the ambition to literally "undermine and erase" the modern system of administrative management in the United States of America, radically change the rules of the game in politics, inflict a crushing defeat on traditional elites, and bring to nothing the so-called deep state, relying on the Republican majority in both houses of Congress and the conservative majority in the Supreme Court of the United States of America, which are completely under his control at this stage. Such intentions of Donald Trump not only reflect his personal emotions. It is worth noting that his decisive intentions also resonate with the anti-system sentiments of voters and are his version of the response to the general public request for real changes in the country.
An important element of the new president's domestic political strategy is the intention to significantly expand the powers of the White House and the executive branch as a whole, reminiscent of the "imperial presidency" that Richard Nixon once tried to create. For example, contrary to the practice that exists in the United States of America, Donald Trump believes that the president has the exclusive right to control federal spending and can influence the work of the Federal Reserve System, the de facto independent central bank of the United States of America.
Donald Trump and his team began their “shock and awe” attack on the day of the inauguration. In addition, he is expected to issue more than 100 executive orders on issues that were identified as priorities during the election campaign and provided him with the support of the majority of American voters. In particular, these are orders on strict measures to regulate immigration, changes in energy policy to remove restrictions on the extraction of combustible fuels, simplifying the procedure for dismissing federal employees, and reviewing vaccination policies. Some of the orders may have a noticeable and direct impact on the work of the government, while others will be mostly symbolic in nature, sending a message to the American public: “From now on, everything will be different.”
In addition, at the same time, Donald Trump and congressional Republicans began an active search for ways to implement legislative initiatives of the new administration. It is worth noting that one or, more likely, several bills are currently being discussed, dedicated to extending the tax cuts introduced during Donald Trump's first presidential term, increasing security at the borders of the United States of America and deporting illegal immigrants. In addition, bills are also being discussed, dedicated to changes in energy policy, as well as military spending. Compared to executive orders, which only require the signature of the president, bills will require more time, effort, and investment of political capital to pass through the Congress of the United States of America, especially given the fragility of the Republican majority in the House of Representatives. In addition, the countdown to the next midterm elections in 2026 has already begun. It is worth noting that, given the possibility of losing dominance in the United States Congress, both Donald Trump and his loyal supporters have limited time to implement his legislative program.
It was expected that on inauguration day, the new United States Senate would join the House of Representatives and pass a bill to detain and deport illegal immigrants who have committed even minor criminal offenses (the Republicans could be supported by 10 Democratic senators).
It is worth emphasizing that the newly elected President of the United States of America met his inauguration with a practically formed team, the main actors of which are undergoing the process of approval by the US Senate. The most difficult situation is with the candidates for the positions of Secretary of Defense, Director of the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) and National Intelligence Coordinator. All of them belong to the number of ultra-loyalists who are to play a key role in implementing Donald Trump’s idea of a “revenge presidency” and “cleaning out” his enemies from the federal agencies subordinate to him. Despite numerous claims to their views and the lack of the necessary experience, they all have a chance to pass through the purgatory of the United States of America Senate: so strong is the desire of Republican senators to please Donald Trump. I should note that of the 17 Republican legislators who once voted for the impeachment of Donald Trump, only five remain in the current Congress of the United States of America.
With the exception of the scandalous characters mentioned above, the rest of the appointees of the new president generally fit into the algorithm existing in the United States of America for the appointment of members of the presidential cabinet and heads of central government bodies. Most of these people have the necessary competence and professional experience to perform their official duties, or at least some political achievements. However, it must be said that the mentioned features are only additions to the most important criterion, namely, almost religious loyalty to the “boss”. His subordinates are assigned the role of implementers of the decisions of the president, who is known for his tendency to fall under the influence of his own emotions and be guided by them. In addition, the president also tends to rely on his own ideas and intuition, acting, often without taking into account the opinions of experts or even contrary to their recommendations. Donald Trump, as his first term shows, is also characterized by variability in the assessment of his subordinates, which can significantly shorten the time they stay in office. In this sense, it is very interesting to see how long the "romance" between the two megalomaniacs – Donald Trump and Elon Musk – will last. The latter is increasingly irritating the president's inner circle and the president's "fan club".
In anticipation of the inauguration, Donald Trump did everything possible to push Joe Biden into the background. Trump tried to do this both in domestiс politics and in the international arena. It was Donald Trump who attracted the attention of the American and international media, and it was his Florida residence that was lined up with the heads of leading American corporations (including those who had previously been critical of him) and heads of foreign states.
It is worth noting that even before officially assuming the office of President of the United States of America, Donald Trump tried to exert a significant influence on world politics. Perhaps most noticeably, this was in the Middle East, where its special envoy actively participated in the negotiations between Israel and the Islamic resistance movement Hamas. In addition, during the transition period, the outlines of Donald Trump's plan to end the war in Ukraine, which he identified as his immediate priority in world politics, became somewhat clearer. Compared to his pre-election statements about "24 hours", Donald Trump admits that ending the war in Ukraine is an extremely difficult task, the solution of which will take at least six months. Next, let's turn to Marco Rubio's statements at the Senate hearings. According to him, the war in Ukraine "has reached a dead end". Although, as he believes, the Russian Federation cannot be allowed to seize all of Ukraine, Kyiv will not be able to return all the sovereign territories controlled by Russia. In addition, he also noted that in order to reach peace agreements, not only the Russian Federation, but also Ukraine and the United States of America must make concessions. Correctly noting that sanctions are a lever of US influence on the Russian Federation, Marco Rubio suggests the possibility of their weakening. Moreover, it is worth mentioning that Defense Secretary candidate Pete Hegseth previously said that it is impossible for Ukraine to return to its 2022 borders, and Kevin Kellogg said about the possibility of weakening the sanctions regime.
Thus, Donald Trump's team agrees to the actual division of Ukraine and does not exclude at least a partial return to normal relations with the Russian Federation in the future. At the same time, Donald Trump does not plan to provide Ukraine with security guarantees, crosses out our Euro-Atlantic prospects and publicly admits to understanding the negative "feelings" of the Russian Federation regarding Ukraine's membership in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. In this context, the upcoming meeting or conversation of the American president with the Russian dictator causes me deep anxiety. Especially after the seemingly unrelated statements to Ukraine about the annexation of Greenland and the restoration of control over the Panama Canal, along with the possibility of using a scenario that includes a forceful method of achieving the set goals. Such statements clearly showed that Donald Trump is convinced that there are certain rules of conduct for powerful states, such as the United States of America, and completely different ones for weaker countries that must obey the will of the "big guys." In addition, he also actually questioned the principle of the inviolability of borders, which is one of the fundamental principles of modern international law.
More generally, Donald Trump's approach to foreign policy has seen a transformation of neo-isolationism "America First!" towards "America First!" +”, when the dominance of the United States of America in the world is possible and even desirable while minimizing resource costs and global responsibility, avoiding involvement in military conflicts with powerful rivals. Thus, we see that there is an active drift towards expansionism, characteristic of the United States of America in the 19th century: American analysts began to use the term "continentalism", which means Trump's intention to ensure the exclusive influence of the United States on the American continent in the spirit of a new version of the "Monroe Doctrine".
The world according to Donald Trump's vision is very similar to the world according to Vladimir Putin, to whom the American leader treats with unwavering respect. Therefore, it is obvious and understandable that the Kremlin dictator wants to negotiate the war in Ukraine with Donald Trump. With this development of events, the question arises whether the principle of “nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine” will become a meaningless phrase after their negotiations?
On the eve of Donald Trump’s inauguration, it was possible to state that Trump’s relations with the majority of the American public are on a honeymoon. Now he is having a moment when favorable winds fill the sails of his political ship. According to the latest CNN poll, 56% of Americans believe that the economic situation in the country will improve within a year, 55% approve of Donald Trump’s actions during the transition period, and the president’s popularity has reached its highest level for him at 46%.
What happens next will depend on Donald Trump's fulfillment of his campaign (mostly populist) promises, primarily to curb inflation and improve the economic situation of ordinary residents of the United States of America, which does not really fit with his intention to sharply increase tariffs on imported goods from a number of countries. It is worth noting that his leadership qualities will be tested in the near future in the fight against catastrophic fires in California and overcoming their consequences. Ukrainians, like the rest of the non-American world, need to make decisions given that we have no other choice but to look for the most effective means of interaction with the leader elected by the voters of the United States of America. And this must be done, despite his arrogance, narcissism, emotional swings and changeability of character. It is worth saying that the main and most difficult efforts in this direction fall on the shoulders of our leadership, politicians and diplomats. It is important for Ukrainian society as a whole to understand the futility of hopes and calculations that “Donald Trump will come and solve all the issues”. After all, it is worth remembering that if he does solve all the issues, he will solve them based on his own interests. In order to stand firm in the fight against the Russian aggressor, not only extraordinary efforts of Ukraine’s Western partners are needed. To effectively fight the enemy, we need the remobilization of the entire Ukrainian society, when all aspects of its life are subordinated to this goal. In order to achieve it, we need a new quality of state management that would correspond to the criticality of the situation.
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