Behind the Scenes of NATO Summit: What Awaits Ukraine in The Hague

The upcoming NATO summit does not raise any illusions in Kyiv.

“Utter nonsense,” is how one of ZN.UA’s well-informed sources described the situation ahead of the event.

In a situation where everything revolves around Donald Trump, the main thing for NATO is not to irritate the head of the White House, who believes that he can reach an agreement with Putin and end Russia’s war against Ukraine. Therefore, although the Russian-Ukrainian war, support for Kyiv and the prospect of our country’s NATO membership are among the key issues of transatlantic security, public references to Ukraine and Russia in The Hague will be kept to a minimum.

After all, the main thing is “not to harm the dialogue” between Washington and Moscow.

According to a preliminary draft of the final declaration of the Hague summit, details of which were made public by Bloomberg, Russia is named as a threat to Euro-Atlantic security. However, it does not mention Russia as an aggressor in the war against Ukraine. Nor does it mention China, which previously appeared in NATO summit declarations as the decisive enabler of the Russian invasion. At the same time, the draft confirms the allies’ commitments under Article 5 of the Washington Treaty.

According to ZN.UA, the statement on the results of the summit is expected to consist of several key points. Firstly, a commitment to increase defense spending to 5 percent of GDP will be set down. Secondly, the development of the European military-industrial complex will be announced. There may be a point devoted to the global security agenda: China, the Indo-Pacific region, cyber threats... But the text will definitely not mention the prospect of Ukraine’s NATO accession.

For Kyiv, it is crucial that the allies confirm its decision on Ukraine’s “irreversible path” to NATO membership and that Ukraine receive an invitation to join the club. Previously, the Presidential Office used shock diplomacy to achieve this, playing on the nerves of its partners and causing international scandals. For example, on the eve of the Vilnius summit, Volodymyr Zelenskyy in his tweet criticized the allies for their indecision on inviting Ukraine to NATO.

However, taking into account the Trump factor, Ukraine is now adjusting its position.

Several Ukrainian officials told ZN.UA that any mention of Ukraine’s membership in the final document of the NATO summit in The Hague would irritate Trump and provoke opposition from Washington: this is counterproductive at present and could have negative consequences for our policy of Euro-Atlantic integration. Therefore, unlike in previous years, Kyiv does not intend to seek a commitment from the allies to include this point in the final document of the summit.

Although Kyiv is concerned about Washington’s willingness to discuss Putin’s demand that NATO not expand eastward, it believes that the Alliance will not yet revise the decisions on Ukraine adopted at previous summits. A consensus is needed for a review, and our country has several loyal friends among the allies who will never let this happen. NATO officials themselves assure us that Russia’s demand for written commitments on NATO’s non-expansion to the east is not on the table.

Today, Kyiv position is as follows: Article 10 of the Washington Treaty provides that any European country can join NATO. It is important for us that no state that is not a NATO member should have the right to veto allied decisions. For now, Kyiv is satisfied with the approach voiced by NATO officials: the allies are not renouncing their long-term commitments, and the decisions of previous summits on Ukraine’s irreversible path to membership remain valid.

After Trump’s return to the White House, the discussion about inviting Ukraine to join was replaced by a discussion about Zelenskyy’s presence at the summit. Given the attitude in the White House toward Ukraine and its president, NATO is trying to keep Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Donald Trump at arm’s length so that they do not even cross paths at the summit meetings: after all, it is unclear how their conversation might end. The allies do not want to see a repeat of the scandal in the Oval Office.

In the current situation, it is already positive that the Americans have agreed to Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s presence alongside the four leaders of the Asia-Pacific region (Australia, New Zealand, South Korea and Japan) at a dinner on June 24 hosted by King Willem-Alexander of the Netherlands. However, on June 25, Zelenskyy will not take part in NATO events: no NATO-Ukraine Council (NUC) meeting at the level of heads of state is planned. Only a dinner will be held on June 24 in the UN format at the level of foreign ministers. (At the same time, the representative of Ukraine will not attend the dinner of the heads of defense ministries of NATO member states and the Asia-Pacific Four.)

Given that the summit in The Hague is an interim one, focused on the transformation of NATO itself, and that the issue of political support for Ukraine is being pushed to the back burner, Kyiv has yet to make an official decision on Zelenskyy’s participation in the NATO summit. Why should he go to The Hague? To have dinner? For bilateral meetings? To create a favorable image for NATO and not spoil the triumph of Trump, who has secured an increase in defense spending from European allies?

For NATO, the absence of the Ukrainian president in The Hague would be a publicity disaster. Both NATO and the US would like to avoid this. In an attempt to find a way out of the situation, the allies are offering various options. According to ZN.UA, one of them provides for Zelenskyy to open the NATO-Ukraine Council meeting at the level of foreign ministers. No decision has yet been made in the Ukrainian capital on what to do. From the point of view of the Presidential Office, it makes sense for Zelenskyy to go to The Hague only for the sake of meeting with Trump.

Kyiv is trying to capitalize on its partners’ desire to avoid a scandal and is seeking to organize a separate event for the leaders of NATO member states and Ukraine, in which Trump would also participate. Will it work? It is unlikely. Perhaps because Brussels and Washington are confident that Zelenskyy will be in The Hague in any case, since the summit will decide on increased defense spending, and the Ukrainians need to secure a commitment from the West to provide military aid to Ukraine in the final document.

It should be recalled that to contain the growing Russian threat, NATO is developing a plan to restore its military capabilities, which will be implemented over ten years. Today, the allies are moving towards increasing defense spending to 5 percent of GDP. This commitment will be implemented according to the 3.5+1.5 percent formula, with 3.5 percent being allocated to hard defense (armed forces) and 1.5 percent to soft defense (pensions, infrastructure, defense industry).

Apparently, NATO will agree to support Ukraine’s defense as part of increasing defense spending to 5 percent. According to Bloomberg, there is a possibility that this commitment will be mentioned in the final document. At the same time, the agency notes that the promise made to Kyiv a year ago at the NATO summit in Washington to allocate €40 billion in military aid to our country in 2025 will not be included in the draft final declaration.

Kyiv has another ambitious goal: to mention in the NATO-Ukraine Council the provision of air defense systems to Ukraine. The daily Russian shelling of Ukrainian cities may give these arguments more weight, and Ukrainian diplomacy may manage to achieve its goal. But as long as NATO’s main priority is not to irritate Trump, it is unlikely that this idea will succeed. Ukraine can only hope that, at the negotiating table, the leaders of NATO member states will not forget what Ukrainians are fighting for.