The Peace Plan of Putin's Friends Has Caused Fear among Russian Z-patriots. It Will Not Suit Ukraine Either

On the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA), there are fierce battles for the future of Ukraine. And while Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy was promoting the Victory Plan in New York, and Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation (MFA of Russia) Sergey Lavrov was lobbying for Putin's "realistic settlement plan," diplomats from China and Brazil were pushing a joint "peace plan."

Last Friday, the Special Representative of the President of Brazil Celso Amorim and the Head of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People's Republic of China (PRC) Wang Yi organized a meeting with representatives of two dozen countries of the Global South, namely Algeria, Bolivia, Egypt, Zambia, Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Colombia, Mexico, Turkey, South Africa and others. At this meeting, Beijing and Brasilia presented the "Friends of Peace" platform, which they intend to present as a consolidated position of the Global South on ending the "Ukrainian crisis".

China and Brazil, demonstrating a false equidistance from the participants in the armed confrontation, did not invite representatives of either Ukraine or the Russian Federation. It is noteworthy that among the participants of Friday's rendezvous there was also no India – one of the most influential players in the Global South: China views this country as its competitor. In addition, it is worth noting that India itself is not very interested in supporting the Chinese plan.

However, European countries such as France, Switzerland and Hungary were invited as observers. Following the meeting, thirteen countries participating in the platform issued a communiqué supporting the Chinese-Brazilian plan to resolve the "Ukrainian crisis" published in May. Let us recall that it is a revision of the Chinese proposals of 2023 and provides for the following.

First, adhere to the "three principles" for resolving the situation, which means stopping hostilities, not escalating the conflict, and not spreading it to new territories.

Second, it is important to recognize that dialogue and negotiations are the only possible way to resolve the "crisis."

Third, the parties to the conflict must avoid attacks on civilians and civilian objects, protect women, children, and other victims of the conflict, and respect the fundamental rights of prisoners of war.

Fourth, the parties to the conflict must oppose the use of nuclear, biological, and chemical weapons, prevent the proliferation of nuclear weapons, and avoid nuclear crises.

Fifth, it is important to oppose armed attacks on peaceful nuclear facilities.

Sixth, the parties to the conflict should jointly support international cooperation in energy, finance, grain trade, transport, etc., the security of key infrastructure (oil and gas pipelines, energy facilities and submarine optical cables), and ensure the stability of the global supply system. It is also worth noting that Beijing and Brasilia have their own interest in promoting the pro-Russian plan. Brazil, whose economy has historically been heavily dependent on fertilizer supplies from the Russian Federation, and after February 2022 became one of the largest consumers of Russian diesel fuel, is striving to gain the status of a global player. For China, the initiative to resolve the "Ukrainian crisis" is an attempt to increase its political influence not only among the countries of the Global South, but also in the European Union, which the People's Republic of China (PRC) wants to see as a center of power independent of the United States of America. Finally, it is not in China's interests to see the defeat of the Russian Federation, which is its junior partner in the confrontation with the United States of America.

This plan, wrapped in beautiful words, poses a threat to our country.

Despite China's constant lamentations about "respect for sovereignty, territorial integrity and the principles of the Charter of the United Nations (UN)," the plan it has come up with does not contain any of the above. It does not aim to withdraw Russian troops from Ukraine, liberate the territories seized by the Russian Federation, i.e. restore Ukraine's sovereignty on its own land. Behind the outwardly attractive call not to expand the zone of military action is a freeze of the current situation, depriving us of the right to strike at the aggressor and liberate the captured 1/5 of the country...

Moreover, if the armed confrontation is frozen, there is a high risk of resumption of hostilities in a few years. And the Chinese-Brazilian plan does not provide for security guarantees for Ukraine at all.

There is not a word in the plan about the aggressor, the responsibility of this country, or payment for the destruction caused by it. There is not the slightest hint of justice in it, just a recording of the right of the strong to take as much as it can and stop where it wants. At the same time, the plan clearly shows the interests of China and the countries of the Global South: grain, oil, gas... China got rich on the war, did not condemn the aggressor, did not impose sanctions, did not provide us with any help. And when Beijing constantly shouts about the inadmissibility of supplying us with Western weapons, it simultaneously quietly supplies the aggressor with machine tools and components.

Finally, the initiative of Beijing and Brasilia undermines Kyiv's efforts to promote the Ukrainian plan to end the war. Thus, it is not surprising that in Ukraine it is called destructive and created in the interests of the Kremlin. "I believe that the Brazilian-Chinese initiative is more pro-Russian," said Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in an interview with the Brazilian publication Metropoles. And during the debates in the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA), he said that those who ignore the Ukrainian peace formula themselves want to do what Putin does.

It is also worth noting that the West also looks with suspicion at the proposal of Beijing and Brasilia. According to Le Temps, the United States of America and the Europeans do not support the "peace plan" of China and Brazil, since the absence of a reference to the Charter of the United Nations (UN) is seen as an endorsement of Moscow's strategy. Western countries also accuse China of actually helping Russia produce weapons by supplying it with electronic components: according to the Secretary of State of the United States of America, Anthony Blinken, 70% of the machine tools imported by the Russian Federation and 90% of microelectronics are supplied from China and Hong Kong.

But at the same time, there are those in the West who support the Chinese-Brazilian plan and the creation of the "Friends of Peace" group, calling for an end to the bloodshed and the start of negotiations. Today, these are countries such as Hungary and Switzerland.

If the statements of the political leaders of Budapest are not surprising, then the position of the representatives of Bern has disappointed Kyiv. "We cannot understand the logic of such a decision. After all, together with the Swiss Confederation, we organized the first Global Peace Summit in Bürgenstock on June 15-16,” reads a statement from representatives of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine. Kyiv also called on Switzerland and other countries to avoid participating in such “peace initiatives,” which create the illusion of dialogue and are capable of complicating the process of achieving a comprehensive, fair and sustainable peace for Ukraine.

Despite criticism from Kyiv and its key Western partners, the Chinese-Brazilian proposals could, in the event of a catastrophic situation for Ukraine at the front, become the basis for a peace agreement: in general, they suit Moscow. Firstly, because according to these peace proposals, the occupied territories are left to it and Russia is given a much-needed pause. Secondly, this initiative erodes the already weak support for Ukraine from the countries of the Global South and the West.

Earlier, Deputy of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation (MFA Russia) Sergei Ryabkov already said that Moscow welcomes the “peace plan” of Brazil and China. However, Lavrov has now given a reserved assessment of the Friends of Peace platform itself: “This group still has a lot of work to do… The main thing is that they base their proposals on reality, and not take them from abstract conversations.” At the same time, Moscow's displeasure was caused by the participation of France and Switzerland in Friday's meeting.

It is quite possible that such statements by Kremlin representatives are just part of the Russians’ game to promote the Chinese-Brazilian plan.

But the Z-patriots consider the initiative to be very harmful to the Russian Federation. The reason is that they consider the Chinese-Brazilian plan to be inconsistent with Russia’s national interests, since it is fundamentally different from Putin’s proposals and provides for freezing the “conflict.” Many of them, like Russian publicist Georgy Bovt, fear that China will “force peace” on Russia.

China and Brazil have a chance to enlist the support of the countries of the Global South: some of them are interested in ending the Russian-Ukrainian war under any conditions, while others view the war in Eastern Europe as a confrontation between Russia and American imperialism. If Beijing manages to involve dozens of countries in the “Friends of Peace” group, the Chinese leadership will receive a serious argument to promote its and Russia’s vision of ending the war, and Ukraine can forget about promoting its own Victory Plan and holding the second Peace Summit.

 

Read this article in Ukrainian and russian.