Germany’s defense budget: decisive chance for Ukraine and Europe

Europe’s fate hinges on Ukraine: If successful in Ukraine, Russia will attack EU countries. At the same time, Ukraine’s fate hinges on Europe given Washington’s new priorities.

In this situation, Germany plays a key role.

On Friday it was announced that the potential partners of the next coalition had agreed additional Euro 400+ billion debts for defense. This, and an unequivocal public German commitment to Ukraine’s defense, could tip the European scales.

CDU/CSU and SPD got the Greens’ support for a vote in the old, still sitting, parliament. There, they have a 2/3 majority needed to overcome the German constitutional “debt brake.” In the new parliament, they won’t.

It is an existential moment. German democratic parties decide on their country’s, Europe’s and Ukraine’s future when they manage or fail to agree the extra budget.

But they also decide about their own survival. They might be one election away from irrelevance if they fail to do what it takes to defend Ukraine, Germany and Europe. External threats to Europe and Germany and internal threats to the German democratic system are interlinked in a new way.

Because now, in an unprecedented constellation, not only Russia but also voices from Washington support the German right-wing radicals, AfD (Alternative für Deutschland), who want to marginalize the established democratic parties, dismantle the EU, and open Germany to Russia, sacrificing Ukraine in the process.

Even if not coordinated, the two-winged support for the AfD from East and West creates a threat as from a powerful joint strategy.

20,5% voted for the AfD in the federal elections. Many voters believe only the AfD is really willing to control migration, prevent abuse of the welfare state and make Germans secure – in foreign policy and in their jobs perspective.

Friedrich Merz’ declared mission is exactly to show that parties committed to democracy, freedom and rule of law can achieve the same. For the SPD and Greens, it is equally crucial to show this.

The leader of the Christian Democrat’s (CDU) sister party CSU, Markus Söder, called the incoming government “democracy’s last bullet.”

Just how true this is, becomes clear from a look at what the AfD now ostensibly can offer. Not only Russia seems to hand them the key to an irresistible alternative for German voters. For the first time, important voices from the new US join. It looks like AfD can provide: An end to the war in Ukraine, good relations with Russia AND now also with the US, and cheap energy for getting the economy back on track.

As to Russia, for years, AfD promised reconciliation with Moscow, ending the war, restarting gas flows. The AfD used Moscow talking points. Russia likely helped them rise head and shoulders above the traditional parties in social media. Also, it is worth mentioning that among the 4 million German citizens with Russian background, AfD support is twice higher than among all Germans.

A weakness of the AfD in the eyes of many was its anti-Americanism. But now things have changed.

In his keynote speech at the Munich Security Conference, the US Vice President said, the main threat for the transatlantic alliance was that there were no common values left to defend. A key example he used was that Germany’s main parties want to keep AfD out of power systematically, thus, he said, disregarding free speech and the voters’ will. Elon Musk uses his unique resources to support AfD actively.

Moscow and parts of Washington now sing in a similar tune, of a future with the AfD as possible part of a government of Germany in a fractured EU in good relations with Russia and the US.

This siren song creates a communications echo chamber between Russia, the US and AfD.

German democratic parties have a last chance. If they will vote for the extra defense budget, and only then, things can start falling into place. Starting with Ukraine:

If Germany and Europe manage to defend Ukraine, they pull the rug from under the talk by Moscow and US voices of European irrelevance. They show that traditional democracies can deliver. They show what Europe can do. They have a success story where AfD said they could only fail.

'Give me a fixed point and I will move the whole world,' Archimedes allegedly said. Ukraine has long been an Archimedean point for where Europe’s future turns.

Germany might have the decisive hand on the lever.

If its democratic parties don’t join forces to push things on a new foundation, they are themselves toast. If they manage to follow through on their agreement, they may save Ukraine, Germany, Europe – and themselves.

 

Read this article in Ukrainian and russian.