Battle for Pokrovsk. Will Donbas Become Ukrainian Verdun?

As you know, history has a tendency to repeat itself, and sometimes — to form quite unexpected intricacies and striking similarities of events. Even if there are tens or even hundreds of years between them.

In the summer of 1916, exactly 108 years ago, the Battle of Verdun took place in northeastern France. The battle in which more than 700,000 soldiers from France and Germany lost their lives. It is rightfully considered one of the bloodiest and cruelest in recent world history.

After winning the Battle of the Marne in 1915, France concentrated its forces on conducting serious offensive operations that would bring significant territorial gains and lead to the defeat of Germany. Under these circumstances, the French command decided to reduce the role of large concrete forts as the most important defensive structures of that time. As a result, at the end of 1915, all Verdun forts were deprived of heavy artillery and a large part of the garrisons.

This led to the fact that after the start of the German offensive near Verdun, one of the main forts of France. In this way, Fort Douaumont was captured by two German assault groups consisting of 20 soldiers.

Other forts, due to the lack of firepower and a small number of personnel, were captured very quickly later (the troops transferred from there were preparing to carry out offensive operations in other directions of the front). In this way, German soldiers, after occupying key points of defense, were stopped by French infantry divisions in improvised positions, and in fact in field trenches. Of course, at the same time having incredible losses.

As of the evening of August 27, Russian troops completely occupied Novohrodivka, a village 10 kilometers south of Pokrovsk in Donetsk region. According to the data of foreign OSINT analysts, the third defense line of Pokrovsk was located in front of this city (the first and second lines were occupied by the enemy a long time ago, starting with the breakthrough in Avdiivka).

Blue lines — defensive structures of the Defense Forces of Ukraine, red lines — directions of attacks by the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation

Based on this map, we can conclude that another equipped defense line, built later, remained near Pokrovsk. However, it is worth noting that fortifications are being actively built around the city. The question of the timeliness of these works is a rhetorical one.

According to the military, with whom ZN.UA spoke, the line captured by the enemy the day before was partially equipped with concrete structures and long-term firing points. However, according to the soldiers, there was not even any attempt to maintain the defense at these points. Even before the full occupation of the trenches by the Ukrainian military, the sabotage and reconnaissance group (SRG) of the Russian Federation moved through the city and even managed to hit a Ukrainian tank in an urban battle. Similar stories are told by the military about other defense lines built in the Pokrovsky direction.

Fortification of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which was occupied by the enemy a few days ago

Now, a slow but steady advance of the Russians is taking place in this direction, which partly resembles the movement of the enemy in the summer-autumn of 2022. At that time, the Russians covered the distance between Popasna and Bakhmut. It is worth recalling that at that time the stage of battles in the fields lasted only a few months, and serious battles took place precisely in the presence of urban buildings. At first, military operations were conducted in the destroyed Popasna, and in the end, the front stopped for a long time precisely in Bakhmut.

At this stage of the war, Popasna is Avdiivka, from where the Defense Forces of Ukraine were forced to withdraw in February-March of this year. In addition, Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad, which have dense buildings and are therefore suitable for defense, risk becoming like Bakhmut.

Unfortunately, this is not the author's own analytical forecast, but an example directly cited by the President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, at his press conference, comparing the battles near Pokrovsk to the Battle of Bakhmut. However, the president forgot to specify that it is not only about the city as an analogue of the already mentioned French Fort Douaumont, but also about human destinies. In this case, it is about the destiny of the citizens of Ukraine.

In contrast to the urban confrontation, the specifics of battles "in the fields" provide for significant equipment of both sides with firearms and the presence of serious fortifications. Without them, such actions are suicidal rather than militarily effective. At the same time, positional battles in cities involve greater mobility of defenders, the presence of shelters, the difficulty of destruction by heavy firepower such as anti-aircraft guns and artillery, as well as simpler logistics due to the presence of paved roads.

A ZN.UA source in one of the brigades stationed in the Pokrovsky direction reported on the condition of anonymity that part of the military (in particular, units of the Territorial Defense Forces of the Ukrainian Armed Forces) are being prepared specifically for urban battles. For this, at this stage, a lot of preparatory activities are taking place, the details of which cannot be disclosed for reasons of security of the Defense Forces of Ukraine. However, the problem is that they are trying to involve units that are already very exhausted by the battles and are often unable to perform such tasks to equip the positions.

In other directions, in particular near Kurakhove, Kurakhivka, Hirnyk, Ukrainian and Selydove, enemy troops are also approaching settlements with a significant area and infrastructure. These are typical mining towns that have a significant number of industrial structures, high-rise buildings, mines and slag heaps, which can greatly contribute to the conduct of defensive actions.

In particular, as of the morning of August 28, the occupiers of the Russian Federation had already entered the city of Selydove and set up positions in the local park. A slag heap near the city and an enrichment plant were also seized.

One of the most likely scenarios for the defense of Donbas after the enemy breaks through several lines of defense of the Armed Forces of Ukraine looks something like this. Losses of the Russian Federation during hostilities in urban areas are traditionally greater, as shown by the experience of the battles for Bakhmut, Avdiivka and other cities of Donetsk region. Also, under such conditions, the advance of the enemy is much slower.

Undoubtedly, it is the serious firepower of the occupiers and the superiority in forces and means that is the main reason why the enemy is advancing so quickly and why several cities will become probable outposts for Donbas at once. However, another important reason, as during the breakthrough of the German army at Verdun, is the withdrawal of professional units from hot areas and their replacement by less trained and experienced ones.

According to ZN.UA, over the past two weeks, the 47th Separate Mechanized Brigade "Magura", which was one of the most important components of stabilizing the defense there, was withdrawn from the Pokrovsky area. According to sources, the withdrawal is not related to the loss of combat capability, but to the preparation of the 47th Separate Mechanized Brigade "Magura" for conducting hostilities in another direction. Also, the 109th brigade of territorial defense forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which is in positions north of the occupied village of Ocheretyne, is already at the limit of its capabilities. Individual divisions of the brigade are simply disbanded due to lack of personnel.

At the same time, several newly formed units were sent here. In particular, we are talking about the 151st Separate Mechanized Brigade (Ukraine), which was created last year and did not participate in battles before that. In its relatively short time on the front lines, this brigade is remembered for its brigade commander sending first-person view (FPV) drone pilots to fight in the infantry, according to DeepState. In addition to the 151st Separate Mechanized Brigade (Ukraine), over the past few weeks, several units of territorial defense forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine have appeared near Pokrovsk.

It should be understood that in the absence of a significant reinforcement of troops in this direction, the entire defense of Donbas may undergo painful changes for Ukraine. Undoubtedly, the command understands how serious the loss of key defensive positions can be for hostilities and what resources must be spent to restore at least a relative balance of forces.

According to a military officer who was recently transferred to the Kursk region from Donetsk region, "even half of the artillery shells and drones that were used during the offensive near the city of Sudzha would have been able to significantly stop the advance of the Russian Federation military in Donbas."

I really wish that no analogy with the First World War was relevant now, more than a hundred years later. However, no Fort Douaumont can defend itself unless it has trained soldiers and resources for defense. And no parallel operations will justify the losses that will have to be incurred in order to win back the sovereign territories. This is what the lands of Verdun were for France, and Donbas is for Ukraine. But in the end… are we going to continue fighting for our own Verdun?

Read this article in Ukrainian and russian.