Will China Help Trump End the Russian-Ukrainian War?

President of the United States of America Donald Trump is trying to involve the People's Republic of China (PRC) in the peaceful settlement of the Russian-Ukrainian war.

Joint efforts to end the war in Ukraine could become a precedent for further cooperation between the two countries, whose relations are characterized by fierce economic and technological competition, mutual distrust and global rivalry. Moreover, it is worth noting that the position of the newly elected President of the United States of America Donald Trump and his team and the initiative that the People's Republic of China (PRC) is trying to promote with the help of Brazil, converge in allowing concessions from the Russian Federation at the expense of Ukrainian interests in order to cease fire and reach a potential agreement between Ukraine and the Russian Federation. It is worth paying attention to the fact that the newly elected President of the United States of America Donald Trump has not yet announced any official plan to end the war, explaining this by the fact that after its publication it will become a “worthless plan”. However, the statements made by the newly elected American President Donald Trump himself and members of his team allow us to develop a generalized understanding of potential peace proposals and compare them with the initiative of countries such as Brazil and the People's Republic of China (PRC):

	Common Positions	Positions that have differences
1. De-escalation of the situation	Both sides involved in the military conflict call for immediate ceasefire	The newly elected President of the United States of America, Donald Trump, is focusing his efforts on reaching an agreement on an “immediate ceasefire”, considering methods of persuasion and coercion towards both sides to bring them to the negotiating table. In addition, at the same time, countries such as Brazil and the People's Republic of China limit their initiative to general appeals to “all interested parties” and are devoid of specific proposals for its implementation
2. Dialogue and Negotiations	Both sides involved in the military conflict believe that dialogue is the only way to resolve the conflict and support peace talks between the countries	Countries such as  the People's Republic of China (PRC) and Brazil call on “all” parties to create conditions for peace talks and also support holding an international peace conference recognized by both the Russian Federation and Ukraine (this idea was proposed on the eve of the Peace Summit in Switzerland (June 2024) and looked like a way to hinder Ukrainian efforts towards a peaceful resolution of the conflict). The newly elected President of the United States of America, Donald Trump, seeks to immediately bring the parties to the negotiating table and openly speaks of the need for concessions from both sides. The President of the United States of America, Donald Trump, is positioning himself as a mediator between the President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, and the President of the Russian Federation, Vladimir Putin.
3. Humanitarian aid and protection of the country's civilian population	Both sides involved in the military conflict agree on the need to protect civilians and end the humanitarian crisis	The newly elected President of the United States of America, Donald Trump, and his team do not specifically focus on specific aspects of humanitarian aid or the exchange of prisoners of war, while the initiatives of countries such as Brazil and the People's Republic of China officially include these issues as one of the separate items
4. Nuclear and Chemical Weapons	The Parties condemn the threat of the use of nuclear, chemical and biological weapons. In addition, they call for the avoidance of nuclear escalation	The newly elected President of the United States of America Donald Trump and his team focus on the risk of the United States of America being drawn into a conflict with a nuclear power, emphasizing the danger of escalation for the United States of America itself. At the same time, it is worth noting that countries such as Brazil and the People's Republic of China call for efforts to prevent the proliferation of nuclear weapons and avoid a nuclear crisis
5. Nuclear Safety	—	Countries such as Brazil and the People's Republic of China speak out in favour of international law in the field of nuclear security, while the newly elected President of the United States of America, Donald Trump, and his team do not express their opinion on this topic separately
6. Economic Cooperation and Sanctions	—	The initiatives of countries such as Brazil and the People's Republic of China oppose things like sanctions and isolation, while the newly elected President of the United States of America, Donald Trump, is using sanctions, tariffs, and lower oil prices as means of pressuring the Russian Federation to force peace talks
7. Territorial concessions	The approach of the team of the newly elected President of the United States of America Donald Trump coincides with the Brazilian and Chinese initiatives in that his approach does not make demands on the Russian Federation regarding the de-occupation of Ukrainian territories. In addition, his approach also does not demand from the Russian Federation the restoration of the sovereignty and territorial integrity of our country	The newly elected President of the United States of America Donald Trump and his team directly say that Ukraine will have to agree to territorial concessions, while the initiatives of countries such as Brazil and China avoid direct mention of such an approach to resolving the conflict, but in fact this initiative accepts the territorial status quo
8. Security guarantees	—	The team of the newly elected President of the United States of America Donald Trump is discussing the possibility of providing security guarantees to Ukraine and the participation of European allies in peacekeeping efforts, while the initiatives of countries such as Brazil and China do not provide for any guarantees
9. Demilitarized Zone and Peacekeepers	—	The newly elected President of the United States of America, Donald Trump, and his team propose the creation of a demilitarized zone and the deployment of European peacekeeping forces to ensure a ceasefire. It is worth emphasizing the fact that the initiatives of countries such as Brazil and the People's Republic of China do not provide for mechanisms for monitoring and enforcing the ceasefire.

In addition, the political leaders of the People's Republic of China (PRC) and the team of the newly elected President of the United States of America Donald Trump have a common position on Ukraine's accession to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). It is important to emphasize the fact that they share the Russian Federation's version of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization factor as the cause of the Russian-Ukrainian war and support Ukraine's refusal to join the bloc. However, it is worth saying that their motives are completely opposite.

In Beijing, political leaders consider the alliance an important tool of the United States of America's strategy that it uses for global deterrence, aimed at countering China's rise.

In contrast, the team of the newly elected President of the United States of America Donald Trump considers Ukraine's accession to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization to be part of a compromise with the President of the Russian Federation Vladimir Putin, which the administration of the previous President of the United States of America Joe Biden neglected on the eve of a full-scale invasion, and is trying to put it on the negotiating table as one of the conditions for achieving peace.

Unlike the United States of America, the motivation of the People's Republic of China in announcing its own peace initiatives was not aimed at achieving real peace in Ukraine, but at strengthening its own positions at the global level. Thus, it is worth saying that by announcing its peace initiatives, the People's Republic of China (PRC) tried to strengthen its positions primarily among the countries of the so-called Global South. In addition, by announcing peace initiatives, China's political leaders also tried to balance their "neutral" status, which had acquired a pro-Russian colour.

Thus, it is worth noting that the Brazilian-Chinese initiative does not offer mechanisms for achieving peace, but rather is a set of proposals devoid of real content. Beijing's political leaders have repeatedly called for de-escalation of the "crisis in Ukraine" and promotion of peace negotiations. However, the appeals of its political leaders are not directed at the Russian Federation: the authorities of the People's Republic of China (PRC) avoid condemning Russian aggression and ignore the involvement of North Korean troops in military operations on the side of the Russian Federation, calling their military cooperation “their own business” of the two sides. Instead, China’s political leaders have repeatedly called on the United States of America and its Western allies to “stop adding fuel to the fire,” which in reality means stopping the supply of weapons to Ukraine. It is worth emphasizing the fact that the statements of the newly elected President of the United States of America Donald Trump about the possible termination of military assistance to Ukraine correspond to the vision of the People's Republic of China (PRC), which it has been actively promoting since the beginning of the large-scale war in our country. However, such a position plays into the hands of the Russian Federation and deprives Ukrainians of the opportunity to defend themselves from Russian aggression.

It is important to note that the political leaders of the People's Republic of China (PRC) view the Russian-Ukrainian war through the prism of their own confrontation with the United States of America, in which relations with the Russian Federation are of strategic importance for their country. That is why the People's Republic of China (PRC) and Xi Jinping have personally invested heavily in strengthening and developing close relations with Russia and President Vladimir Putin himself. Thus, the efforts of China’s political leaders are aimed at preventing the Kremlin from a strategic defeat in the war, since it acts as an important partner and a deterrent to China against pressure from the United States of America.

Therefore, prolonging the Russian-Ukrainian war, provided that nuclear escalation is avoided, may have added significant value for Beijing.

First, the war will further tie up Western resources around supporting Ukraine, and accordingly, will not allow it to concentrate on the Indo-Pacific region.

Second, prolonging military action will increase the Russian Federation’s split with the West and push it towards greater dependence on the People's Republic of China.

Third, if the newly elected President of the United States of America Donald Trump weakens American commitments to European security and reduces support for Ukraine, he will undermine the geopolitical weight of the United States of America in Europe and the trust of allies in the world at large. It is worth noting that such an approach to conducting politics will give Beijing’s political leaders a chance to strengthen their positions in relations with them.

However, it should be said that the newly elected President of the United States of America Donald Trump has set himself the goal of ending the war, and his team is actively working on preparing negotiations with the President of the Russian Federation Vladimir Putin. The agreement concluded by the newly elected President of the United States of America Donald Trump with the political leaders of Moscow could lead to the lifting of sanctions and the improvement of the Russian Federation’s relations with the West, and therefore to the reduction of Moscow’s dependence on Beijing. The People's Republic of China (PRC), on the one hand, is not interested in the defeat of the Russian Federation, and on the other hand, it would not like to reduce its dependence and strengthen its geopolitical positions.

Thus, in view of this, it is in the interests of the political leaders of the People's Republic of China (PRC) to be not a passive peacemaker, but an active participant in the process. It is important what role Beijing chooses for itself, given the difficult balance in the triangle of the United States of America—the People's Republic of China—the Russian Federation.

In addition, it is worth noting that the newly elected President of the United States of America Donald Trump is calling on political leaders in Beijing to help end the Russian-Ukrainian war, but the People's Republic of China (PRC) is currently seen in the peace process as a party that has influence over the President of the Russian Federation Vladimir Putin and could help successfully bring him to the negotiating table. However, Beijing has ambitions to gain wider recognition for its mediation and influence on the processes of the European security architecture. It is worth noting the fact that for Ukraine, such an approach carries the risk of bias and possible advocacy of the interests of the Russian Federation given their close strategic coordination on issues of global politics. Beijing has repeatedly complained about the United States of America, represented by the administration of the previous President of the United States of America Joe Biden, that they are groundlessly accusing it of insufficient efforts to end the "Ukrainian crisis", and called for cooperation in order to jointly create the necessary conditions for a political settlement. Currently, the administration of the newly elected President of the United States of America Donald Trump is more open to interaction with the People's Republic of China (PRC), and their positions on ending the Russian-Ukrainian war largely coincide.

For Beijing itself, firstly, such an approach to conducting policy would remove the threat of military confrontation with the United States of America, at least for the period of the presidency of the newly elected President of the United States of America Donald Trump, since he wants to become a president of “peace”, not “war”. Secondly, such an approach to conducting policy would contribute to improving the image that was undermined by relations with the Russian Federation, primarily among the countries of the European Union. Thirdly, a ceasefire would help stabilize world trade, energy and food markets, in which the People's Republic of China (PRC) should be interested.

However, Chinese involvement in the conflict settlement process may be based on its own strategic interest. The People's Republic of China (PRC)  may link its assistance to the newly elected President of the United States of America, Donald Trump, with the policy of the United States of America towards Taiwan, as well as with the general direction of the current US-China relations, thus trying to conclude a broader agreement that would go beyond trade and economic relations and would cover security issues in its region and conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East. Thus, the President of the United States of America, Donald Trump, may face a higher price that Beijing will set for him to resolve acute international problems, in particular, ending the Russian-Ukrainian war. In addition, it is worth noting that in the event of failure to agree and reach a common consensus in reaching agreements, the People's Republic of China (PRC) may push the newly elected President of the United States of America, Donald Trump, to use coercive methods, which he actively uses in foreign policy relations.

To a certain extent, this strategy may work in matters of the influence of the People's Republic of China (PRC) on the Russian Federation to end the war. After all, it is worth emphasizing that it was the threat of secondary sanctions and pressure on the Chinese financial system that forced the authorities of the People's Republic of China (PRC) to more closely monitor trade with the Russian Federation and strengthen export control over dual-use goods, but this turned out to be insufficient. Increasing the price of support for the political leaders of the Russian Federation may become an argument for the People's Republic of China (PRC) to move from imitation of peacekeeping efforts to real steps. Beijing must face a choice: either it limits military support for the Russian Federation and helps end the war, and in return will get the opportunity to build profitable economic and trade relations with the United States of America and Europe, or it will face real negative consequences for itself and a significant deterioration in relations with the West. It is important to what extent the newly elected President of the United States of America Donald Trump will be able to create such pressure.

In addition, it is worth noting that there are too many factors that will influence China's decision on what its role will be in ending the war. Beijing's position will be determined by the trajectory of US-China relations and the ability of the new administration of the United States of America to manage that trajectory. Thus, in the new confrontation, each country will be tested for resilience. And one of the games, unfortunately, will revolve around the war between Ukraine and the Russian Federation.