War with Russia: Are Ukrainians Ready for So-called Israeli Model?

The NATO summit begins today in Vilnius.

Kyiv is fighting to the last to get an invitation to become a member of the Alliance. But the chances are very low. While an invitation is far from membership, Joe Biden is reluctant to make even that symbolic gesture. According to the head of the White House, the admission of Ukraine to NATO in the conditions of the Russian–Ukrainian war means that the entire military-political union will be at war with Russia. Biden’s position, alas, is shared in Berlin.

Instead of membership in the collective security system (or firm guarantees of the country’s joint defense on a bilateral basis), our country is promised that it will join NATO after the end of the war, when it meets the requirements of the Alliance. In the meantime, the United States is imposing an alternative to Ukraine – the “Israeli model”: the Americans are ready to help us gain the ability to defend ourselves. This model provides for strengthening the country’s defense capability (including through military assistance from partners), constant readiness to independently repulse an aggressor, and colossal funds to maintain a high-tech army.

Israeli “style”

Among the main risks in the “Israeli model” for Ukraine is the preservation of a permanent state of war with Russia; perpetuating our country as the “gray zone” of security; the constant falling of Ukrainians defending NATO’s eastern borders; the absence of a stable inflow of foreign investment into the warring country. As American expert Ian Brzezinski points out, Moscow’s determination to destroy Ukraine and its history far exceeds the collective intensity of Israel’s enemies.

Previously, ZN.UA has already written about the features of the so-called Israeli model and significant differences in the position of Ukraine and Israel. Let me remind you: firstly, unlike our country, Israel has a strong economy and a nuclear arsenal, an elite consolidated in security matters, and a population that almost without exception serves in the army.

Secondly, the “Israeli model” has another distinguishing feature – the priority development of its own high technologies and its own defense industry, capable of producing modern weapons systems. In Israel, there is the cult of science, and not the humiliating residual principle of its financing. There, random people do not run the defense industry and the defense sector of the economy; military-industrial plants exist not to be bankrupt, and then signed off as the territory for residential development.

Thirdly, the enemies of the Israeli state are terrorist organizations and some countries of the Middle East, whose military power is inferior to that of Israel.

The nuclear-free Ukraine is experiencing serious problems in economy and finance, has limited military and, more importantly, human resources. The enemy of our country is a nuclear Russia, with a population of at least three and a half times that of Ukraine. “Your situation is fundamentally different… In fact, it’s not fun to be you,” Israeli Ambassador to Ukraine Michael Brodsky stated in an interview with ZN.UA. In order to counter Russia, Ukraine should shift the economy to a model that will include significant costs for the security and defense sector, launch a mobilization system in which all citizens will be involved.

To some extent, economic problems and the lack of modern weapons can be compensated for our country through significant Western financial and military assistance. But what about the mobilization system? Will Ukraine follow the path of Israel?

The Israelis, in order to defend their lives and the independence of the state in the fight against external enemies significantly inferior to Russia in terms of territory, economic development, and combat capability introduced compulsory military service for all citizens. In peacetime, the IDF is actually a small regular army, based on conscripts and regular service soldiers. And in wartime, it is deployed thanks to reservists, which make up 72% of the Defense Army.

Conscripts take part in hostilities after two years of training, and only in Israel. But outside the Israeli state, only contract soldiers enter the battle, which, together with officers in the army, are 15%. In total, 169.5 thousand people are employed in the Defense Army. In the reserve there are 465 thousand.

In the IDF, men serve 30 months, and women – 24. Women are exempt from service for health reasons or if married at the time of the conscription; men – for health reasons; also, some categories of repatriates avoid conscription. Students are not drafted. The deferment is also given to men studying in Jewish religious schools. But since education can last a lifetime, the vast majority of ultra-religious Jews do not serve in the army, which is a source of tension in society.

After completing military service, Israeli citizens are in the reserve and are called up for reservist training. Soldiers and sergeants are in the reserve until the age of 40, officers – 45 years, individual specialists – 49 years. Women are in the reserve until the age of 38. The duration of reservist training for soldiers and sergeants does not exceed 54 days in three years, for technical specialists – 70 days in three years, and for officers – 80 days in three years.

“Israel has been self-reliant for decades. I am sure that Ukraine will be the same. You have no other choice,” believes Michael Brodsky. Meanwhile, he expresses the opinion that “it is wrong to do copy-paste, i.e., take some model, be it Israeli or any other one, and completely copy it in Ukraine.” But what do Ukrainians think? Are they ready to introduce one of the key elements of the “Israeli model” in the Ukrainian context?

The voice of a Ukrainian

On the eve of the Vilnius NATO summit, the Razumkov Center conducted a poll upon the order of ZN.UA from June 23 to 28. In particular, we asked the respondents whether they support the introduction in Ukraine of universal military duty, following the example of Israel, when both men and women serve in the army (see Figure 1). As follows from the answers of Ukrainians, only one in three (32.3%) is in favor of serving all citizens, regardless of gender, while every second (!) respondent (48.4%) is against, and one in five (19.3%) found it difficult to answer this question.

In different age groups, Ukrainians were practically unanimous both in their rejection of universal military duty for all citizens and in their approval (see Figure 2). Meanwhile, Ukrainian men, unlike women, are more ready to support such an innovation (37.4 and 28%, respectively) and are slightly less categorical in rejecting the idea that all citizens serve in the army (45.4 and 51%) (see Figure 3).

If universal military service is adopted for both men and women (see Figure 4), only one out of 35 Ukrainians – 2.8% (!) – is ready to serve, as in Israel, for three years, and one out of five – 18.9% – two years. Every fifth (19.3%) believes that military service should be less than a year, but every fourth (26.6%) is ready to serve for a year and a half. It is significant that every third respondent found it difficult to explain his position on the length of military service.

According to Ukrainians, the following should have the right not to serve in the army and not to perform alternative service (see Figure 5): people with disabilities (78.7% of respondents indicated this group of citizens), people with illnesses that make military service impossible (74.4%), as well as parents with many children (56.9%). Less than half of Ukrainians (43.3%) say that undergraduate and graduate students should also have the right not to serve (respondents aged 18–29 are most in favor of this – 50.6%). Slightly more than 16% of Ukrainians think that defense industry workers and those who are not allowed to serve by religious beliefs should be relieved of service. And only every twentieth Ukrainian believes that all Ukrainians, without exception, must fulfill their military duty.

As for the participation of conscripts in military operations in defense of Ukraine, 30.2% of respondents believe that they should do this, but only after receiving a military registration specialty (see Figure 6). Every second Ukrainian is sure: only mobilized and volunteer soldiers should fight.

Are Ukrainians ready to participate in periodic military training from 50 to 100 days? (see Figure 7). Every second respondent (46.4%) is not ready to undergo reservist training, 35.7% are not against it. Of the respondents, 10.6% of respondents agree to undergo reservist training once a year, 13.2% – once every three years, 11.9% – once per five years.

Meanwhile, among women there are significantly more of those who are not ready to take part in military training than men – 56.8 against 34%. And in general, women are less willing to accept the very idea of ​​participating in reservist training – either once a year, or once every three years, or once every five years: as the results of the survey show, on average, half as many women are ready for this as men.

It is noteworthy that among those who consider the return of all territories by our country and the restoration of sovereignty within the borders as of 1991 (which are 62.9% of all respondents) to be acceptable results of future negotiations between Ukraine and Russia, undergo reservist training from 50 to 100 days only 10% of respondents are ready once a year, 14.6% - once every three years, 12.1% - once every five years (see Figure 8). On the whole, there are significantly fewer of them who are not ready to participate in military training. And those are 45.5% of the respondents.

But among those who support the conduct of hostilities on the territory of Russia, including with the participation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (which are 16.4% of all respondents), 43.9% are in principle ready to undergo reservist training: some do not mind doing it once a year, others once every three years, and still others once every five years. And the latter category, though not by much, is bigger (42.5%) than those who are not going to take up military training.

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Thus, as polls suggest, half of Ukrainian citizens are not ready either for universal military duty, similar to the one that exists in Israel for men and women, or for long-term military service, or for participation in regular reservist training. Yes, judging by the comments of Ukrainian officials, the authorities, turning Ukraine into a “second Israel”, do not plan to put all men and women under arms.

First, Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said that after the war, Ukraine would refuse conscription in its current form, launch a professional army, and create two components of the reserve: all those liable for military service would constantly undergo compulsory training in certain military specialties. And later, Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov stated that our country needed to cancel conscription, create a professional army and an understandable reserve register. He proposes to abandon the “Soviet legacy” that prevents effective mobilization during martial law and causes rejection among Ukrainians.

For sixteen months, the Ukrainian army has proved that it is capable of withstanding a superior enemy. A significant part of Ukrainian society (despite the fact that it is easier for many of us to leave for neighboring EU states and protect ourselves there) continues to live, work and fight in a warring country, under artillery and rocket fire at the frontline and in the rear, believing in the triumph of justice and demonstrating the will to win. Perhaps all this is key for us.

Then what qualities of an effective modern army will Ukraine adopt from Israel? We hope that at least those that Michael Brodsky spoke about in an interview with ZN.UA are the development of a modern, technologically equipped “smart army.” Of course, – the attitude of military leaders to the life of soldiers.

In order for us to become the second Israel, not only our Western partners must provide us with financial, technical, and military support, but Ukraine must also improve military training and the work of military registration and enlistment offices, develop the military-industrial complex, put things in order in the field of management and combat corruption.

Otherwise, we will not be able to successfully resist Russia for many years, which has much greater economic, natural, and human resources than Ukraine.

 

All the data mentioned in the text are the results of a sociological survey by the Razumkov Center. The survey was conducted upon the order of ZN.UA from June 23 to June 28, 2023 using the face-to-face method in 22 regions of Ukraine and Kyiv. 2018 respondents over the age of 18 were surveyed. The theoretical sampling error does not exceed 2.3%.

Read this article in russian and Ukrainian.