Listening To Trump: Still Looking For American Dream? Go To Canada

Who would have thought that Donald Trump would seriously consider realizing this joke, popular a decade ago, when it seemed that America was starting to stall and Canadian governments did not know what to do with the budget surplus.

But it looks like he's going to Canada in a tank.

At least, that's the impression one gets when reading the numerous tweets with threats from the future US president and his brave team about the 51st state the size and shape of Canada. Elon Musk, for example, really outdid himself in his attempt to insult Justin Trudeau, who has declared gender equality as the basis of his policy, by referring to the Canadian leader in a tweet as “girl”!

Can Canada and the United States, which were considered an example of friendly neighborly coexistence, have a common defense policy, the largest trade relations in human history, the most transparent borders and mutual understanding and friendship at the level of political elites and peoples, go to war with each other?

For an outsider from Europe or other regions of the world that are reeling from economic turmoil, wars and other cataclysms, this idea looks completely absurd. Only experts will remind you of the complicated history of relations between the British Dominion of Canada and the United States, of the relocation of Canada’s capital from Kingston inland to the small city of Ottawa to reduce the threat of another attack across the US-Canadian border, about the unresolved territorial claims of the United States to Canada in the northern sea straits, about the special position of Canada, which did not support its main ally in the war in Iraq, which almost led to a freeze in political relations and a complete boycott of Canadian goods.

What can we say if even Ukrainian officials, who, as part of Canada’s technical assistance, were taught a course on “asymmetric relations,” referring to the ability of Canadians to find the fine line of comfortable coexistence with their large neighbor, were offered the same path in Ukraine's relations with Russia. It seemed to be a discipline so detached from reality that I remember only a vivid allegory: “Sleeping with an elephant in the same bed is cozy and safe; the only thing you have to consider is when it turns over in its sleep.” Indeed, how can one compare Russia's endless claims to its neighbors with the bad jokes of some Americans who saw their neighbor as nothing more than “snowy America.”

But now that the United States has contracted the virus of aggressive conservatism and Canada has plunged into extreme populist liberalism, the secret dreams of some and the fears of others are becoming more and more real.

Indeed, in a world where might makes right seems to prevail, there are many opportunities for an aggressive player. How can the United States ignore the incredible natural resources of Canada right on its doorstep? The world’s second oil reserves or the world’s biggest deposits of freshwater, which may soon become more valuable than oil? We need not mention the rest of the periodic table. Canada, like Siberia, has almost everything. In Ukraine, we have long been accustomed to the narrative that China is watching the Russian-Ukrainian war with hungry eyes, hoping to benefit either from a change in the world order if the world democracy Kyiv pins its hopes on falls, or from access to Russian resources if the Kremlin falls. It seems that today democracy itself is not a safeguard against the realization of aggressive intentions; it is enough to properly sell the idea of the need to possess strategic resources or guarantee security needs to your electorate: from the Panama Canal to the northern latitudes of Greenland and Canada.

Doesn't that sound familiar? And if we add that there are forces in the Canadian political system that openly advocate unification with the United States, and some provinces threaten to secede from the federation if such a rapprochement occurs?

But enough of the frightening prospects. It is unlikely that we will see a violent confrontation, although readers may recall that not all Ukrainians believed in even the theoretical possibility of war with our northern neighbor. In my opinion, it will not go beyond aggressive rhetoric. Besides, it is rather designed to sharpen the negotiating position before Donald Trump’s promised revision of trade tariffs with Canada (and Mexico). And this war is already underway. The first victim was Trudeau himself. He did not listen to his deputy, Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland, who warned him of the danger of underestimating the unfriendly intentions of the new US administration and called for a tough tariff confrontation. As a result, both resigned, plunging the Canadian political system into a systemic crisis that is likely to deprive the Liberal Party of its “ruling” prefix.

In the spring, the Conservatives, traditionally closer to the US Republican Party, will probably come to power in Canada. Whether they will remain partners with the Trump Republicans is an open question. At the very least, they will try. They have little choice. Trump 2.0 is shattering the world order, starting with his closest friend, Canada, even before he officially takes office.

What should Ukraine expect now? With the United States, the prospects are more or less clear, though not cheerful. Will Canada (no matter who comes to power in Ottawa) have the time, intellectual energy, financial resources or simply the moral strength to continue to help Ukraine in its confrontation with Muscovy?

Not to mention that even under Trudeau, this assistance was far from what Ukrainians expected from “the most Ukrainian state on the planet after Ukraine itself,” as Canadian politicians often like to say, hoping that this phrase will replace another tranche of military equipment for Kyiv. Will the new Canadian government be able to lead international efforts to transfer Russian funds to Ukraine’s needs, or will it limit itself to another international conference on the important humanitarian issue of returning Ukrainian children taken to Russia at a time when all Ukrainian children are in danger every day? Will Canada be able to play the role of a lobbyist for our interests in the United States at a time when it seems that Ottawa itself needs to start looking for lobbyists to somehow maintain a dialogue with the White House?

 

P.S. “Trump is right. We really need to build a wall in the south. From the Americans” (a Canadian joke during the COVID-19 pandemic).

 

Read this article in Ukrainian and russian.