Blessed Are the Miracle Workers

Since the enthronement of the new pontiff, Pope Leo XIV, one of the most debated topics has been what the Pope will and will not do regarding the Russian-Ukrainian war. Expectations and hopes for the Holy See’s involvement in resolving the conflict, which had faded by the end of Pope Francis’ pontificate, have been revived. And so have the fears. The new Pope has given no reason to believe either way; he is not as prone to theatrical gestures and emotional judgments as his predecessor.

However, this war is one of the first serious challenges that the Pope has faced since ascending to the throne. Moreover, he finds himself not between two fires—the Ukrainian and Russian sides—but between three, as the American president is persistently pushing him to work toward “appeasement.” Trump does not have many options left to “save face.” According to the mythical logic of the US president, if the “American Pope” performs a miracle, it will be a miracle performed by America.

Judging by some signs, Trump is counting heavily on the “American Pope” in this regard. Putin’s conversation with the pontiff took place shortly after his conversation with President Trump, on the same day.

This conversation revealed a propensity among the Ukrainian audience to believe in miracles: speculation spread on social media that such a conversation was the result of a “weakening of Russia’s position.” However, it is impossible to draw such a conclusion from the official statements of either the Vatican or the Kremlin. The same can be said of Pope Leo’s reaction. He is in no hurry to work miracles.

His telephone conversation with Putin was tediously diplomatic. Apart from the usual “call for a settlement of the conflict” and general platitudes about “the importance of dialogue,” only two things deserve attention. First, Pope Leo will support Cardinal Zuppi’s mission to exchange prisoners between Ukraine and Russia. This mission also includes attempts to return stolen Ukrainian children, but its effectiveness in this regard is not yet clear. Second, the Pope “sent greetings” to Patriarch Kirill and recalled the “common Christian values” that can unite us. This is a signal. But of what kind? Is Pope Leo ready to continue playing the good old game of Ostpolitik—“rapprochement” with the Moscow Patriarchate for the sake of “common Christian values”?

Putin proved to be no less predictable. Apart from the statements about “eliminating the root causes,” which can be interpreted literally in any way—right down to the very existence of the state of Ukraine—an even more valuable phrase was uttered: about “the Vatican’s participation on a depoliticized basis in resolving acute humanitarian issues.” Since it is impossible to “depoliticize” the end of the war, we can assume that the Kremlin is assigning the Vatican a role, at best, in prisoner exchanges. But there is no talk of “peace” and no role for the Vatican in this.

In fact, Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov said as much shortly before this conversation: conducting negotiations between two Orthodox countries on a Catholic platform is “inelegant.” I believe that the word was chosen deliberately: given the current situation, it would be impossible to find a more cynical or absurd description, no matter how hard one may try. Maintaining elegance in the midst of a bloodbath of your own making is a trait intrinsic to psychopaths.

However, staging insanity now seems to be the main task of the Russian “political establishment.” This was particularly evident during the St. Petersburg Forum, where viewers had the opportunity to witness all shades of delirium, from statements that “this is a religious war” to “this is our internal conflict because the USSR was not liquidated by legal means.” Against the backdrop of this frantic jittering, Putin looked almost normal. A tired orderly from ward No. 6 who cares deeply about his patients.

Therefore, it is not surprising that Pope Leo is in no hurry to rush headlong into Ukraine’s affairs. Catholic media emphasize that the Pope is not a “mediator” in the negotiations and does not intend to become one. All he is offering is a meeting place. The pontiff’s caution is easy to understand: being a mediator only makes sense when both parties to the negotiations are ready to reach an agreement. If this is not the case, the role of mediator becomes ambiguous—by participating, he legitimizes the farce, giving the nonsense the appearance of a serious political event. And given the peculiarities of the “platform” and the “mediator,” this farce could be sold to the public as nothing less than “saving the world.” Even the eccentric Pope Francis—who was not afraid to look ridiculous—did not participate in this.

Nevertheless, the Vatican could well become a negotiating platform. And voices from Russia—from crazy demonologists to the Kremlin's master—are already outlining the boundaries of this platform for the Pope. First, “no politics,” only “humanitarian issues.” Of these, only one is actually being discussed—the prisoners exchange. This is quite a lot, but it does not solve the problem of the war. This is also important for Russia: while everyone is talking about a “peace without politics” from respectable “neutral platforms,” the Kremlin reserves for itself the exclusive “right to politics”—the final solution to the Ukrainian question. Or whatever it is they mean by “eliminating the root cause of the conflict.”

Another “gag for the Pope” is the Russian leader’s constant concern about “the position of canonical Orthodox church in Ukraine.” The “problem of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church of the Moscow Patriarchate” pops up like a jack-in-the-box every time the conversation veers off course (from the Russian point of view). This topic is twice as inconvenient for the Pope. Not only because it is “inelegant” when “two Orthodox countries...” and so on, but also because the Holy See has its own interests in Ukraine that clash with those of the Moscow Patriarchate.

In this respect, for Pope Leo, the figure of his predecessor, Pope Francis, may serve as a warning. The Havana Declaration, which Pope Francis signed with Patriarch Kirill, was a compromise in the best (or rather, worst) traditions of Ostpolitik. And no matter how hard Vatican spokespeople try to present this document as a “small step forward” in what are nearlt impossible negotiations, history will give its own assessment. Pope Francis signed a document appeasing the aggressor after the annexation of Crimea against the backdrop of war (2016). This document was never ratified by the Russian Orthodox Church. That is, it does not bind the Moscow Patriarchate in any way. But it does bind the Vatican because it bears the signature of the Pope.

In general, Pope Leo XIV does not have the best cards when it comes to the Ukraine question. He needs to think hard about how to play them.

While he thinks, we believe—or rather, hope—for a miracle. After all, the fact that we pin so much hope on the Vatican—and not Istanbul, for example—speaks volumes about us, Ukrainians. From young to old, from the US president to the petty loudmouths on social media, everyone wants to believe in a miracle. Hoping that there is someone on earth who knows what to do to defeat evil.

Since we are talking about the confrontation between good and evil, about the devil and his tricks, we intuitively “appoint” the church to this role. First and foremost, the Catholic Church—a powerful, closed organization that holds the secret strings of world influence in its hands (everyone has read Dan Brown, but no one has read St. Augustine). The last bastion of trust. The highest authority, capable of “resolving” any issue, including at the highest level—in Heaven. After all, if anyone has “access” to this department, it is only a person who has the “power of the keys.” The Pope.

It might come across as mockery, but this is how our magical thinking works in a situation that seems hopeless to us. We hope for a miracle and that someone knows how to make it come true. Someone who can negotiate with the Lord himself. It is curious, isn't it, that in this particular case we trust the Pope more than our own “domestic” churches. It is either we are tired of trying to figure out who is who and who serves whom or perhaps there is simply no prophet in our own land, no matter how well you serve him. But the fact remains: we place our hopes for a miracle more in a frail figure in white, seated on the Holy See.

For now, however, Pope Leo is apparently in no hurry to work miracles. He intends to play his “Ukraine hand” strictly within the bounds of diplomacy.