Azerbaijani Gas Is A Cover For Russia's Return To EU Market

Ukraine continues to fight not only on the war fronts, but also in the energy field. One of the most daunting issues is our dependence on Russian energy resources and possible ways to ensure energy independence. As we prepare for the winter season of 2024–2025, substantive discussions around the use of the Ukrainian gas transportation system (GTS) to supply Azerbaijani gas are gaining renewed importance.

This topic is of great concern to experts since, under the guise of Azerbaijani gas supplies, there is a real threat that the transit of Russian gas will continue, which calls into question Ukraine's desire for full energy independence from the aggressor country.

Azerbaijan has long been positioned as an important player in the European energy market. The specially built Trans-Anatolian gas pipeline (TANAP) supplies about 13 billion cubic meters of gas per year to Europe. Although Europe is interested in Azerbaijani gas, there are serious doubts as to whether it can really replace Russian gas after the expiration of the transit agreement between Ukraine and Russia in 2024.

Serhii Makohon, former CEO of the Ukrainian GTS Operator LLC Serhii Makohon notes: “Azerbaijan currently does not have sufficient gas volumes to replace the 14 billion cubic meters of Russian gas transited through Ukraine. Thus, any scheme of supplying ‘Azerbaijani gas’ through Ukraine may be a commercial cover for continuing Russian gas exports. In fact, it will be the same Russian gas molecule that, having changed the documents, will appear on the European market under the guise of Azerbaijani gas.”

Myths about frozen Ukraine

It's not just about gas transit. The aggressor country has also focused on a new “information campaign” that I would call “Ukraine will freeze in 2025.” This is Russian propaganda aimed at shaking faith in our victory and destabilizing the situation inside the country. By imposing these narratives about the gas cutoff, Russia aims to intimidate Ukrainians and undermine international support for our country. Therefore, I would like to debunk all the myths that Russia is so diligently spreading.

Myth 1: Transit of Russian gas helps Ukraine maintain its gas transportation system

One of the myths that is being actively spread is that without Russian transit, our gas transportation system will not be able to operate because it will not have enough pressure. However, this statement is not true. Ukraine has long been preparing to work without Russian transit. Back in 2020, our gas transportation system was adapted to work without Russian gas in the conditions when the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline was expected to be commissioned. The system can operate thanks to internal compressor stations and our own gas production.

Myth 2: Russian gas transit protects the Ukrainian GTS from attacks

There is also a belief that the presence of transit protects our gas transportation system from Russian attacks. However, this claim is also unfounded. Russia has repeatedly attacked our energy infrastructure, including underground gas storage facilities. Moreover, maintaining transit does not guarantee that the Russians will refrain from further attacks on the Ukrainian GTS.

In fact, Russia's interest is in destroying Ukraine's energy system, not in preserving transit. Its goal is to destabilize Ukraine, cause an energy collapse and force us into capitulation negotiations. Therefore, the argument that transit protects the GTS does not stand up to criticism.

Myth 3: Without gas transit, supplies to Ukrainian cities will stop

Another widespread myth is that without Russian transit, some Ukrainian cities, including Kyiv, may be left without gas. This statement is also not true. Kyiv receives gas not through the transit system, but through gas pipelines from eastern Ukraine and from western gas storage facilities. Moreover, the system of gas supply to the capital is a ring system, which ensures the reliability of supply even in the event of damage to individual parts of the pipeline.

Energy independence: why we must stop the transit of Russian gas

One of the main reasons why Ukraine needs to stop transiting Russian gas is the financial support the Russian military machine. Russia earns about $5 billion annually from this transit, which enables it to continue its war against Ukraine. These funds are used to purchase components for missiles, drones and weapons, and these weapons are then used against our country.

In addition, the continuation of gas transit under the guise of Azerbaijani gas will help Russia maintain its influence in the European energy market, which contradicts the EU's strategy to abandon Russian energy resources by 2027. Europe has already significantly reduced its dependence on Russian gas from 40 to 15%, and Ukrainian transit accounts for only 5% of total EU gas imports. This means that Europe can survive without Russian gas, and Ukraine has the opportunity to help it do so by completely stopping transit.

Is there an alternative?

According to experts, Ukraine's key role in Europe's energy security is not to continue transiting Russian gas, but to use our gas transportation system to store and transport gas from European countries. Ukraine has the largest underground gas storage facilities in Europe, and they can become a strategic resource for ensuring stable gas supplies to the EU.

Our gas transportation system is already operating at 10% of its capacity, and we are ready to work without Russian gas. It is important to note that Ukraine's gas transportation system was built with a view to possible military action, and it remains flexible even in the face of shelling and attacks on energy infrastructure. Russian attacks on our gas infrastructure have already taken place, but this did not prevent us from maintaining stable gas supplies.

Ukraine must clearly understand the risks associated with possible schemes to supply Russian gas under the guise of Azerbaijani gas. We must not allow Ukrainian infrastructure to be used to continue financing the aggressor. It is important to intensify information exchange with European partners and prove that the transit of Russian gas, regardless of its cover, poses a threat not only to Ukraine but also to the energy security of the whole of Europe.

Ukraine deserves an honest dialog between the government and society on such consequential decisions. We must clearly understand what stands behind each proposal and who will benefit from its implementation. The time has come for a new transparent energy policy that will ensure our independence not only from Russia, but also from the corruption schemes that have long affected our country.

This winter will be crucial in the fight for Ukraine’s energy independence. We must be ready to do everything to protect our national interests by refusing Russian gas and ensuring a stable supply of energy resources for both Ukraine and Europe.

 

Read this article in Ukrainian and russian.