An attempt at a hybrid counteroffensive. The object of the strike is Europe

About "direct democracy" as a large-scale operation of the Russian special services

article by Major General Serhiy Savchenko, military expert, Head of NGOCenter for analytical study and countering hybrid threats

Russia was defeated in the war against Ukraine. There is no military salvation from its defeat. This is obvious to the ruling Putin regime. But the regime is fighting to preserve its existence. It is no longer about political, but physical survival. The way out for criminals is creating and escalating large-scale military conflicts in other regions of the world, or social upheavals within the leading democratic countries. Forces that have been formed and are in a dormant state have been preparing for this for decades. Losing the war and not using these reserves, just silently going to The Hague, would be a strange tactic for a dictator.

Attempts to avoid defeat by conducting hybrid operations do not yield expected results. However, the aggressor isn’t stopping these attempts, which are happening before our eyes. But it’s not so easy for the regular onlooker to see the ongoing operation behind separate events.

Hybrid war is conducted in the form of operations using specific ways and methods of conduct. Operations are conducted along political, economic, information and military operational lines, they are interconnected and have a hierarchical structure. Strategic-level operations consist of lower-level operations, which are, in turn, broken down into components. And, in the end, this hierarchical pyramid reaches the lowest level of components: specific events. It is the events that we can observe. And behind them hides the design and the ultimate goal of destructive hybrid operations.

The idea of destroying Ukraine as a state is based on two strategic hybrid operations. Conditionally, let’s call them "Federalization" and "Direct democracy".

While everything is mostly clear about the destructive plan of "Federalization", the operation with the attractive and most democratic name "Direct democracy" needs some clarification.

The Toxic Idea of Pseudo-democracy

As its theoretical justification, they lay down the principles and provisions of both domestic and international law, taken out of context and distorted in content.

The ideological basis of the operation was chosen to be the indisputable proposition that the people are the only bearer of power. At the same time, the fact that the people, within the framework of representative democracy, delegate their right to power to democratically elected authorities, is kept silent. Instead, populist statements are advanced, that the power, which belongs exclusively to the people, has been seized (usurped) by officials. And therefore actions are proposed to return the power directly to the people.

There is no coherent concept of this “direct democracy”. It is built on certain populist slogans and actions. Involving the society into the discussion of these often contradictory provisions would already be a certain victory for the aggressor.

The main postulate on which the plan is based is the denial of the existence of the state of Ukraine, since the declaration of its creation and independence took place without any authority of the Supreme Council of the Ukrainian SSR. As a result, all the Laws passed after that and all the authorities created are illegitimate. The way out of the all-encompassing crisis lies creating a new state. It is based on, so to speak, "principles", some of which are listed below.

It is necessary to change the state system of the country. Its basis should be territorial communities, and all superstructures at the district and oblast level, as well as to a large extent at the state level, will be eliminated. At the same time, each territorial community decides which territorial communities it is ready to build the future with. In particular, the well-known principle is implemented: each community has its own vision of the past, its own heroes.

In this way, the political and ideological integrity of society is destroyed.

This is how this delusion is formulated in one of the “Manifestos of the Ukrainian Community”, word-for-word: "...Ukraine is a unitary decentralized republic that is formed and functions based on the community system, taking into account the peculiarities of national consciousness and customary law."

The highest authority is the assembly/assembly/meeting of the community. All the most important decisions are made there.

Authorized representatives (the name may be different) are elected from the territorial community to higher territorial local authorities (district ones), if their existence is allowed.

They, in turn, elect authorized representatives to regional councils and the Verkhovna Rada. In some cases, it is allowed to elect the President of the country with representative functions in the Verkhovna Rada.

In this way, the right to elect the government by direct voting is eliminated.

It is not the people as a whole or the state that is the owner and administrator of all resources (including subsoil) on the community’s territory, but the community itself. If there are any mineral resources in the subsoil, it is not the entire nation’s property, but the community’s. If any communications pass through the community’s territory, the community must receive rental fee, the amount of which is determined by the community. These and other similar proposals are aimed at destroying the single economic space on the territory of the modern state.

If national legislation is allowed to be preserved, the legislative power’s monopoly on adopting laws is eliminated. Laws are supposed to be adopted and canceled directly by the country’s entire population through the introduction of the electronic voting system. Alternatively, not even the entire population, but any community gets the right to cancel any law adopted by the Verkhovna Rada. The community decides which laws apply and which do not. According to another vision, the community adopts the laws that apply to its territory.

All law enforcement agencies and special services on the community’s territory are subordinated (at least accountable) to the community, and the heads of these bodies are appointed and dismissed by the community.

In this way, the unified legal field of the state and its law enforcement system are destroyed.

The community establishes the taxes collected on its territory and their amount, and performs the administration of tax collection. The community decides what part of the collected taxes to send to the Center.

In this way, the unified tax system is destroyed and the economic basis of the state's existence is eliminated.

The list of these postulates, which causes some to laugh, and others to be annoyed by its obvious stupidity, could be continued. Most will say that finding supporters of such ideas is almost impossible.

Do not rush to conclusions, though. It all depends on the packaging in which these ideas are presented. And the special services of the aggressor act in this way quite skillfully; they pack this absurdity in an attractive package and promote it to the masses.

And each of us, if desired, can give examples of attempts to implement the mentioned ideas.

A destructive idea to the masses

At the beginning of the 2010s, the preparatory work on the creation of self-proclaimed “territorial communities” began.

The phrase “territorial community” shouldn’t mislead you. This is not about the term established in the legislation of Ukraine.

There is a substitution of concepts happening. The mechanism for creating such self-proclaimed “communities” is hugely simplified. It is enough for 2-3 people to gather, to make a decision to create a territorial community, and the event is considered to have taken place: the territorial community created.

The work of dozens of groups in social networks and on created sites was activated. Specialists, including those with Russian roots, gave relevant lectures on this matter.

Representatives of Ukrainian branches of Russian public organizations actively participated in the process.

Various pro-Russian organizations actively provided their information resources for this purpose, while formally remaining aloof from the process. “Ukrainian Choice – Right of the People”, public organization of Viktor Medvedchuk, stood out for its exceptional diligence and activity.

In Lviv, the so-called “Scientific and practical laboratory of prospective research in the field of legal science and jurisprudence” was openly operating, which provided ready-made packages of documents necessary to ensure the creation of self-proclaimed territorial communities.

As a result, dozens and then hundreds of self-proclaimed "territorial communities" were created in Ukraine. Creation took place in several directions, which were headed by the so-called initiative groups of Ukrainian citizens. The actions of each of them are characterised by minor technological features of the creation of communities, which do not change their essence. This work was done publicly. Ukrainian authorities from the local to the state level, and law enforcement agencies, were informed about the creation of such communities by the initiators. In some cases, messages were sent to representative bodies of foreign countries, to international organizations, including the OSCE and the UN. The messages prepared by lawyers list specific provisions from national and international legislation as justification for the creation of the community, and outwardly look like the pinnacle of democracy. At the same time, the created territorial communities until a certain time remain in the shadows for a wide circle of the public, and do not cause concern.

These formed pseudo-communities carried out practical actions:

• the "extraterritoriality" of certain territorial-administrative units is declared (over which "the jurisdiction of state authorities does not extend");
• own passports of "persons of the Ukrainian people" are issued as alternatives to state documents;
• “property registers of buildings and natural resources" are created, land and natural resources are illegally acquired by issuing documents of an unspecified type for the right of ownership;
• tax evasion mechanisms are implemented through the registration of "people's" entrepreneurs;
• assistance is provided in evasion of military service;
• “transport registration services" are created (evasion of customs clearance and registration of cars, issuance of driver's licenses, illegal registration documents and license plates).

The entire described process and listed actions were covered in the information space. And it was inevitable, since it is impossible to achieve the implementation of such a large-scale project in another (secret) way. This allowed analysts to investigate the history of the operation by analyzing messages in open sources of information. But the destructive activity of self-created communities could not be tolerated.

So what is behind this process: the actions of marginals or a large-scale operation of the Russian special services?

We have an exact repetition of similar destructive actions in other countries.

Not only in Ukraine...

Thus, in Austria, until 2017, the so-called "Conference of Austria" operated, which almost completely copied the above-described activities of the centers of direct democracy in Ukraine.

The key positions of the ideology, as in Ukraine, were based on denying the current government’s legitimacy. It was argued that the existing Austrian Republic is a "private company" and therefore all its acts and actions of "powerful representatives" are of a commercial nature, the territory of Austria is "de jure" occupied by "allied countries" as a result of the Second World War (denial of peace agreements and de -"Anschluss" on the part of Germany).

Absolutely identical characteristic manifestations of activity in both Austria and Ukraine are as follows:

• issuance of "identification" documents, including "diplomatic passports" and car license plates;
• appropriating the functions of maintaining the "land cadastre" and collecting the corresponding payments;
• introduction of "official correspondence" with the current authorities, international institutions and other states;
• simulation of the creation of "parallel authorities";
• promotion of the change of the existing state power in the country and the removal of representatives of the current regime and political establishment.

The list is not exhaustive, but identical activity methods, in the absence of direct visible connections between movements, is impressive.

On April 19-20, 2017, 26 leaders and active members of the "Confederation of Austria" were arrested. Their criminal activities have been proven in court.

On January 25, 2019, the Graz Regional Criminal Court sentenced the leader of the group M. Unger and her "deputy" J. Stukelsweiger on charges of "incitement to treason" to 14 and 10 years in prison, respectively. Another 12 detainees from among the group's functionaries were sentenced to various terms of imprisonment (from 9 months to 3 years) on charges of "forming an anti-government movement" and "fraud."

On December 7 of this year, the world was shocked by the news: in Germany, thanks to a large-scale police operation, a coup d'état was prevented. The mutiny was prepared by an extensive extremist group, the members of which belong to so-called "Reichsburgers".

The very first information indicates a complete identity in the basic ideology, goals and methods of activity of the "Reichsburger" movement with the above-mentioned movements in Ukraine and Austria:

• they also do not recognize the existence of a modern state (FRG), referring to the lack of constitutional grounds for its creation;
• as a result, all authorities in the country and all existing laws are considered illegitimate;
• they reject the existing legal system;
• the goal is to replace the current system of government with its own form of government, to build a new state structure;
• the extraterritoriality of certain administrative-territorial entities is declared;
• shadow authorities are formed;
• the practice of issuing one's own passports and driver's licenses, which are different from state documents, has been initiated;
• the right of the existing state to collect taxes is denied.

In each of the mentioned cases, the organizations were divided according to the areas of activity into conditional components, one of which was a power cell (military wing). Its use was foreseen in the event of a violent seizure of power. Plans for this appeared at a certain stage of activity.

And most importantly, in each of the mentioned countries, the connection of the created organizations and groups that led the process with the Russian Federation is noted.

A common feature of these movements is that during its existence, and especially at the initial stage of development, the movement officially declares ideas that border on nonsense. As a result, the movement is perceived by both society and the authorities as the activity of urban madmen and is not considered a threat.

But the shadow work in social networks, the use of information technologies aimed at manipulating public consciousness, the widest possible populism, contribute to the involvement of citizens in the ranks of the movement.

The common features of the described movements are not accidental. They indicate that we are dealing with a large-scale long-term hybrid operation developed by specialists of the same center: the special services of the Russian Federation.

The exposed and arrested groups are only a small part of those operating in Western countries and preparing for political subversion from within these countries. Such groups are likely to operate throughout Europe.

Such movements represent a heterogeneous conglomerate of various currents that are created and controlled from the outside, act separately for a certain time, and at a decisive moment unite to deliver a devastating blow to the state.

The center of planning and management of their activities is located in Moscow. This was established at the time by the SSU, about which the society was informed during the briefings.

I am sure that the connection with the Russian Federation will be proven during the investigation in Germany.

The social stability of not only Germany, but also other countries is at risk.

Another potential threat is the expected escalation of terrorist activity, which Russia will be behind. Think of the 2015 terrorist attacks in France and Germany that forced the West to immediately lift its political isolation from Putin.

The Kremlin rat has driven itself into a dead end. The world remains in danger. Ukraine has vast experience in countering Russian hybrid operations, which will certainly be useful to its partners. It is necessary to join forces and defeat the enemy in the same way as it is being destroyed on the battlefields in Ukraine. I hope that such a joint effort at the level of the special services is taking place.

Partnership at the level of non-governmental organizations, fact-checkers, the journalistic community, politicians and professionals in the field of information education is as relevant as ever. It is not easy for the residents of European countries to accept that they are in the crosshairs of Russian hybrid aggression just like Ukrainians. It was just as difficult for us to understand this before 2014. However, the sooner this realization comes, the more effective our joint resistance to evil will be.

Together to victory!

Read this article in russian and Ukrainian.