What are Kyiv and Warsaw afraid of and how to reconcile Ukraine and Poland?

Ukraine does not have so many reliable friends to allow itself to have another enemy. Especially one like Poland. After all, in the conditions of the Russian-Ukrainian war, our country largely depends on this Western neighbor. Including in the field of logistics: weapons and humanitarian aid from all over the world come to Ukraine mainly through Polish territory.

But it is worth noting that in the last year and a half, Ukrainian-Polish relations have been periodically shaken and they are not stable. "Skeletons" hidden by Kyiv and Warsaw after February 24, 2022, are increasingly falling out of secret closets. At first, it was the issue of transit of Ukrainian grain through Poland and its sale on the Polish market. Then came the demand of Polish road haulers to return permits for international road transport for Ukrainian truck drivers. Now it is the policy of historical memory of the two countries.

In an interview with Le Monde, the head of the Polish Foreign Ministry Radoslaw Sikorski said that Ukraine must find a solution regarding the Volyn tragedy, primarily in the issue of exhumation, before the political leaders of Poland take tougher and more decisive measures. Three weeks ago, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said unequivocally: Ukraine will not be a member of the European Union if it does not resolve historical issues with Poland.

Such statements sound like an ultimatum.

For most of Ukrainian society, Warsaw's demands are incomprehensible. They cause indignation and return mistrust to Poland. Why does the Polish government increase tensions, returning again and again to the topic of the Volyn tragedy? Didn't the presidents of the two countries make a gesture of reconciliation in the past, when they said — "we forgive and ask for forgiveness"? After all, only the Russian Federation benefits from the rise in temperature in Ukrainian-Polish relations. Therefore, for many Ukrainians who are losing loved ones due to Russian military aggression, who feel the blows of Russian missiles and drones every day, who live in the absence of electricity, who have problems with water supplies, the threats of representatives of the Polish government look like a knife in the back and an unpleasant setup on their part. But for Poles, the position of the Polish authorities regarding the Volyn tragedy is an attempt to restore historical justice and pay their last respects to the victims.

Polish society took Kyiv's ban on search and exhumation work on the territory of Ukraine very painfully. The Ukrainian Institute of National Remembrance made this decision several years ago in response to the destruction of monuments to the Ukrainian Insurgent Army (UPA) soldiers in Poland. It was proposed to resume the exhumation process in Kyiv after the legal monuments were restored. However, the Poles restored the monument on Mount Monastery without a list of the fallen soldiers. As a result, the ban remained in force.

The position of the Ukrainian authorities causes indignation among the Poles: it is not Christian to act this way. And since the topic of the Volyn tragedy has become part of Poland's domestic political track over the past ten years, any Polish government will constantly raise the issue of both the Volyn tragedy and the resumption of search and exhumation work with Kyiv's political leaders. Otherwise, this will affect the attitude of voters towards the ruling political force.

Indignation at Kyiv's actions is superimposed on the ever-increasing irritation in Polish society towards the hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian refugees in the country. (But this could end badly for Poland itself, because if Ukrainians leave for jobs with higher salaries in Germany, Sweden, and other countries of the European Union, then the Poles will be left without the Ukrainian labor force that is so necessary for the Polish economy and with jobs where there will be no one to work.)

As Daniel Shelyhovskyi, coordinator of Eastern Europe programs at the Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM), notes, "public opinion in Poland is changing. Along with these moods, the government's policy towards Ukraine is changing. Within the current ruling coalition, there has long been a struggle between supporters of aid to Ukraine and skeptics, and it is the latter that is gradually gaining strength." 

Against this background, the ban on exhumation means a further deterioration of bilateral relations. Despite such a prospect, the Ukrainian government does not give permission for search and exhumation work. Why is this so? It is not only that political leaders in Kyiv believe that Warsaw will act pragmatically and will not openly break with each other during the Russian-Ukrainian war and will maintain support for Ukraine. "The parties have lost trust in each other. And now political leaders in Kyiv are afraid that if they allow exhumation, the Poles will put forward new demands. "Political leaders in Warsaw do not trust either, suspecting that the Ukrainians will not fulfill their obligations," explained Serhii Herasymchuk, deputy head of the Foreign Policy Council of the independent analytical center in the field of foreign policy and international security called "Ukrainian Prism," in a comment to ZN.UA.

Ukrainian and Polish experts note that Warsaw is seeking to take advantage of the situation when Ukraine is dependent on Poland and resolve the maximum number of problematic issues in Ukrainian-Polish relations in its favor. "At the moment, a consensus is being formed among the main political forces in Poland that the resolution of the dispute over history will be a condition for Ukraine's accession to the European Union," wrote Daniel Shelyhovskyi on the Telegram channel.

Such an approach is nothing new. It is enough to recall the Macedonian case on the way to the European Union: Macedonia faced opposition from Greece due to disputes around the name of the country and Bulgaria — due to the identification of the Macedonian language. And in the case of Greece, Skopje was forced to change the name of the country to Northern Macedonia.

But it is worth noting that such a policy of Warsaw naturally causes indignation of the political leaders of Kyiv: during the Russian-Ukrainian war, when the Ukrainian nation is being formed and a pantheon of national heroes is being created, the Organisation of Ukrainian Nationalists (OUN), the Ukrainian Insurgent Army (UPA) and the red-black flags are a symbol of the struggle for independence. (At the same time, Ukraine condemns the crimes against civilians that were committed by some units of the Ukrainian Insurgent Army (UPA)). On Bankova Street, political leaders also take into account the fact that if the Ukrainian government fulfills Warsaw's inflated demands, Ukrainian society will not agree to this, and then protests will begin on the streets of the country. "In Poland, in recent years, a new consensus has been formed and strengthened by law regarding the Volyn tragedy: it is genocide, for which the "criminal organizations, namely the Organisation of Ukrainian Nationalists (OUN), the Ukrainian Insurgent Army (UPA)" are guilty. And since the asymmetry of guilt within the framework of such an interpretation of common history is enormous, it is impossible to talk about mutual forgiveness, as was the case even in the case of Polish-German reconciliation. "This position has become the political mainstream for Polish politicians of most major parties," Nadiia Koval, a lecturer at the Kyiv School of Economics and an expert on Ukrainian-Polish relations, noted in a comment to ZN.UA.

At the same time, the topic of the Volyn tragedy overlaps with the problems of cooperation between Ukraine and Poland in the defense sector.

For example, Ukrainians are surprised why Warsaw, being a participant in the Czech initiative to purchase ammunition for the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU), has not contributed a single zloty. But if in Kyiv, political leaders say that the Poles can do more, because by helping Ukraine, they are also defending their country, then in Warsaw they believe that Ukrainians are not grateful enough to Poland for the assistance already provided. At the same time, the Polish side is concerned about both the increased influence of Ukraine and the prospect of strengthening Kyiv's contacts with Berlin and Paris, bypassing Warsaw.

The crisis in bilateral relations was clearly evident last Friday at a meeting between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Radoslaw Sikorski. According to the Polish publication Onet, the atmosphere between Zelenskyy and Sikorski was extremely tense, and, according to the participants in the conversation, one could even talk about a quarrel. According to Onet sources, the Poles seemed to be at least surprised by the style in which Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy tried to communicate with the head of the Polish Foreign Ministry. Judging by this meeting, it is unlikely that Kyiv will lift the ban on exhumation in the near future. And yet, it is necessary to find a way out of the current situation. Andrii Deshchytsia, the Ukrainian Ambassador to Poland in 2014-2022, believes that Ukraine should act like a mature European nation, that is, lift the ban on exhumation and allow burials. In his opinion, such permission will significantly relieve tension in Ukrainian-Polish relations.

"Ukraine and Poland have different opinions about the Ukrainian Insurgent Army (UPA). And this is normal, because the Ukrainian Insurgent Army (UPA) fought for Ukrainian statehood. Just as the Home Army tried to preserve Polish statehood within the borders of 1939. Unfortunately, civilians died during this fight. We must demonstrate that we share the pain that the Poles are experiencing, trying to find the bodies of their relatives and bury them in a Christian manner. We understand this desire and it is very familiar to us. After all, many Ukrainians who lost their relatives during the Russian-Ukrainian war want to bury them with dignity," Andrii Deshchytsia said in a comment to ZN.UA. However, permission for exhumation only solves part of the problems in Ukrainian-Polish relations. There is also a more global problem, namely the diametrically opposed assessment of the Volyn tragedy by Ukrainians and Poles: if in Ukraine it is considered ethnic cleansing, then in Poland it is considered genocide. And although Kyiv suggests leaving history to historians, Warsaw does not agree to this.

"After the position of the Polish side has radicalized and become ultimatum-like, it is very difficult to conduct a dialogue on historical issues," Nadiia Koval states. According to Serhii Herasymchuk, a way out of this situation could be the creation of a multilateral commission on the Volyn tragedy with the involvement of European historians. "Otherwise, we will not reach an agreement and will run into a dead end of mutual accusations and inflated expectations," believes the expert of the independent analytical center in the field of foreign policy and international security called "Ukrainian Prism".

Ukrainian-Polish relations are burdened with mutual grievances and a difficult shared history. But it is worth noting that our two countries need each other. And close political, economic and military cooperation is impossible without trust and dialogue. Ignoring the problems in the hope that everything will resolve itself only worsens the situation and contributes to the growth of mutual distrust. And we really don’t want Poland to turn into a second Hungary for us.

A year and a half ago, commenting on the prospects of Ukrainian-Polish relations, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy wrote on the Telegram channel that “in the future, there will be no borders between our peoples: political, economic, and — what is very important — historical.” Now, we again have conflicts due to differences in the interpretation of events in our common history and a quarrel with the Polish Foreign Minister…

Many will test our strength, because in some things we are objectively very strong, and in others we are weak. In this situation, we need to learn not to aggravate relations, but to understand where the red lines are for us, and where there is a place for reasonable compromises.

Read this article in Ukrainian and russian.