Trump Pressures, Europe Hesitates: Will EU Ban Purchase Of Russian LNG?

While the EU is consistently rejecting Russian pipeline gas, its dependence on liquefied natural gas from Russia is only growing.
Last year, EU countries purchased a record-breaking 22 billion cubic meters of Russian LNG. This is 19% more than in 2023. At the same time, Russian pipeline gas exports to Europe in 2024 amounted to 32.1 billion cubic meters. Currently, Russia’s share in the European liquefied natural gas market exceeds 20%, and the largest consumers of Russian LNG are Belgium, France and Spain.
More than 90% of supplies from Russia were made from Novatek’s plants — Yamal LNG and Cryogas Vysotsk. Novatek’s main shareholders are Gennadiy Timchenko, who is close to Putin, and billionaire Leonid Mikhelson. The second LNG supplier to Europe is the state-owned Gazprom Corporation. The company supplies liquefied natural gas through the Sakhalin-2 and Gazprom LNG Portovaya terminals.
Increased supplies of Russian liquefied natural gas to Europe and the EU’s growing dependence on Russian LNG alarm Kyiv.
The point is not only that LNG exports are one of the sources that fill Russia’s coffers and finance the war against Ukraine. As Mykhailo Gonchar, president of the Strategy XXI Center for Global Studies, noted in his commentary to ZN.UA, due to a number of reasons, Novatek enjoys tax exemptions in the LNG sector and does not pay much money to the Russian budget. But by exporting liquefied gas to Europe, the Kremlin seeks to capture a bigger part of the European market. This means new allies and a new lever of pressure on the EU and Ukraine.
We can clearly see how the pro-Russian lobby works in the EU on the example of Hungary, Slovakia, Austria... In particular, thanks to the position of Viktor Orban’s government, the EU limits itself to piecemeal measures against Russia’s energy sector, without imposing sanctions against the nuclear and gas energy sectors. And the very reduction of Russian gas supplies through the pipeline occurred not so much because of the EU’s tough stance as because of the decision of the Kremlin and Gazprom to dry up the European gas market in 2022 and show the West who is the boss in the house.
Against this background, it is quite natural that Denis Solovyov, deputy chairman of the board of Novatek, attempted to meet with Brussels think tanks to discuss the upcoming sanctions against Russian LNG. This is how the Russians are trying to influence the decision-making process in the West and get the restrictions lifted from their activities. According to Financial Times, Solovyov traveled to Washington a month earlier, where he also discussed the issue of sanctions against Russian LNG. Alas, to no avail.
Financial Times has also reported that EU officials have begun discussing the possibility of restoring Russian gas supplies as part of a peace settlement in Ukraine. Supporters of this idea believe that this would lead to lower gas prices and push Moscow to negotiate. Later, a European Commission spokeswoman said that the European Commission did not link the resumption of Russian gas transit with a future peace agreement. But among those who approved the idea were some German and Hungarian officials who saw the initiative as an opportunity to reduce gas costs for European economies.
Therefore, it is hardly surprising that proposals to limit imports of Russian LNG, which replaces gas shortages in Europe, do not garner support in some EU countries, which blocked the adoption of the gas sanctions package.
Let us remind the reader that in June 2023, the EU approved the 14th package of sanctions against Russia, which closed EU ports for the transportation of Russian LNG to third countries. As for the 16th package of sanctions, the EU countries are still agreeing on the specific details of what will be included in it. But according to Politico, the EU will not impose a complete ban on the purchase of Russian liquefied natural gas, nor will it take tougher measures against Russia’s “shadow fleet.”
It is expected that in the 16th package of sanctions Europe will only stop deliveries of Russian liquefied natural gas to terminals not connected to the common gas distribution system of the European Union, which will not affect the bulk of LNG imports. Such a restriction would not affect the bulk of Russia’s feedstock supplies to the EU. The sanctions package will also provide for the prosecution of oil export tankers, which are part of Russia’s “shadow fleet”: 74 new vessels will fall under the sanctions.
In a commentary to ZN.UA, Oleksandr Kharchenko, director of the Energy Industry Research Center, described the future EU sanctions against Russian LNG as “not filled with real content.” Mykhailo Honchar does not quite agree with him. According to Mr. Honchar, unlike other EU countries, the terminals in Spain and Portugal are not connected to the common gas distribution system of the European Union and the EU decision means that Russian methane carriers will not be able to unload gas on the Iberian Peninsula.
Oleksandr Kharchenko and Mykhailo Honchar believe that the best solution for Europe would be a complete ban on tankers carrying Russian liquefied gas entering terminals in EU countries. (Earlier, the UK and the Baltic states already banned the import of liquefied gas from Russia.)
Another effective means would be to impose sanctions against tankers carrying LNG of Russian origin. After all, unlike oil tankers, methane carriers are fewer in number and more expensive and are much harder to find and use in the “shadow fleet”.
In addition, the EU could impose sanctions against both Novatek and its management.
So far, Europe is not ready to take decisive steps. But in the near future, the EU will still have to tighten sanctions against Russian LNG, as it will have to take cognizance of the position of the new US administration, which seeks to expand the European market for US liquefied natural gas. Late last year, Donald Trump warned the EU that it must commit to buying large volumes of US oil and gas or else duties would be imposed.
The position of the impulsive US president is a chance for Ukraine and its EU allies to achieve a complete ban on Russian liquefied natural gas supplies to Europe. Such a decision will be an additional incentive for Russia to start negotiations with Ukraine and conclude a long-term peace agreement on terms acceptable to Kyiv.
The clear position of the White House may encourage European capitals to take more decisive actions: the example of Canada and Mexico demonstrates Trump’s style of diplomacy. All the more so because Washington has previously imposed sanctions against Russian LNG. They are aimed both at limiting Russia’s ability to export LNG and curbing the development of its energy projects. And the fear of secondary sanctions stops South Korean shipyards from cooperating with Russian oil and gas companies.
For example, earlier this year, the LNG plants of Gazprom and Novatek in the Baltic Sea fell under US sanctions. Before that, in the fall of 2023, the US imposed sanctions on Novatek’s Arctic LNG-2 project, which led to a delay in the delivery of gas carriers ordered in South Korea. In the summer of 2024, the US imposed sanctions against seven companies involved in Novatek’s LNG projects: Ob LNG, Arctic LNG-1 and Arctic LNG-3. These companies are building plants to process and liquefy natural gas, and build tankers to transport it.
Judging by the fact that after Trump’s threats to impose new sanctions against Russia, Viktor Orban revised his position on the extension of the EU’s restrictive measures against Russia, the influence of the new White House administration on the position of European powers is already being felt. Washington’s stance may also affect the decisions in Bratislava, where Prime Minister Robert Fico, struggling with Ukraine and EU partners, is pushing for the continuation of Russian pipeline gas supplies to Slovakia.
At the same time, there are enough supporters of a complete ban on Russian LNG among the European Commissioners. Last fall, Ursula von der Leyen, head of the European Commission, said: “We still get a lot of LNG from Russia, and why not replace it with American LNG, which is cheaper for us and reduces our energy prices?” And in a recent phone call, Kaja Kallas, EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, and Marco Rubio, US Secretary of State, agreed that maximum pressure on Russia should continue to be exerted for the sake of a lasting and just peace in Ukraine.
In the meantime, Europe continues to buy Russian liquefied natural gas and the Kremlin continues to amplify its influence in the European Union. Under such conditions, the energy independence of the European Union and Europe looks like a mirage.
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