The deficit in the energy system will remain throughout the summer, even if the shelling stops

On the night of May 8, the Ukrainian energy system experienced the fifth missile and drone attack since March 22. Energy generation and transmission facilities were attacked in the Vinnytsia, Ivano-Frankivsk, Lviv, Zaporizhzhia, Poltava and Kirovohrad regions. In addition, the Russians once again attacked gas storage facilities in the west of the country. Due to the growing shortage of electricity, which has actually been present in the system since April 11, the date of the third missile attack on the energy infrastructure, restrictions were imposed on business and industry on the evening of May 8. If this did not help, the employees of the National Energy Company "Ukrenergo" were also preparing for a power cut for the population. Outages in May, when daylight lasts 15 hours and outside the window plus 15, indicate a really extremely difficult situation.

Currently, in order to balance the system and cover the deficit, all possible measures are used: all the remaining generation capacities are used, electricity imports from other countries and emergency assistance (i.e. urgent supply of electricity from the power system of neighboring countries) are involved. Nevertheless, they decided to speak clearly and truthfully. Employees of the National Energy Company "Ukrenergo" in response to ZN.UA's request reported that although disconnecting electricity from consumers is the last tool for balancing the energy system, the use of such an approach during peak evening hours is quite possible. And such outages will not happen there sometime in the winter, but soon.

Employees of the National Energy Company "Ukrenergo" note that, in addition to Russian attacks, other factors will affect the deficit during the summer. From the end of May and until autumn, consumption will be at a high level due to the massive use of air conditioners in hot weather. It will be especially difficult for the power system during the period of maximum consumption, although this level is lower than in winter, but increases in the summer to seven hours a day – from 3:00 p.m. to 10:00 p.m., which significantly lengthens the already difficult process of balancing the power system during peak times.

In fact, the balance between electricity consumption and production is the main condition for the safe operation of the power system. Energy experts emphasize that the main challenge for the operation of the power system now and in the heating season will be precisely the lack of opportunities for power plants to produce more "maneuverable" and flexible electricity in response to the increase in consumption during cold weather. We will remind that in the meantime, the specialized ministry is making every effort to increase the capacities of absolutely non-maneuverable nuclear power generation.

Employees of the National Energy Company "Ukrenergo" emphasize that the complete restoration of the affected power plants will take a long time, and they cannot abandon planned repairs, which are carried out in the breaks between heating seasons. At the nuclear power plants, the repair campaign has already started, and in the future, more and more generating capacities will undergo temporary repairs, preparing for the next winter. This means that ensuring the balance of the power system even in the summer will be a difficult exercise. Employees of the National Energy Company "Ukrenergo" are prepared for the fact that a noticeable deficit in the energy system will remain throughout the summer, even if the shelling stops. The main thing they are counting on is the attraction of electricity imports from Europe, and if it is not enough, they will turn to their neighbors for emergency assistance.

But before the arrival of the heating season, when, despite the reduction of the peak period, the deficit of electricity generation will increase significantly, various scenarios are already being prepared. Of course, the scenarios are a secret, but at the moment it is known that the government is in the process of negotiations with a number of European countries to transfer to us this type of equipment from their stopped and mothballed power plants. Yes, used and not new, but it's faster than waiting 10-12 months for a new one to be made and delivered.

A parallel process is the construction distributed electric power systems. Things are so bad that the connection of new generating plants to the power grids, which for decades was legendarily long, complicated and expensive in every sense, will now take place under a simplified procedure and for free. By making this decision, the National Commission for State Regulation of Energy and Public Utilities (NCREPU) literally screams about the state's need for small generating capacities. Because it is one thing to hit a 200 MW TPP block with a missile, and another to hit 20 small and scattered power plants of 10 MW each. The only question is: why are we only now approaching the implementation of this wonderful idea, if the need for distributed generation became obvious already during the first wave of energy terror in 2022? Well, it is clear that to the generous gesture of the National Commission for State Regulation of Energy and Public Utilities (NCREPU), it would be desirable to add a solution to debt problems on a balancing market, because now it is, to put it mildly, not the most attractive for investors.

The energy system of Ukraine in the near future, according to the national energy company "Ukrenergo", will require at least 2.5 GW of additional "maneuvering" capacities (approximately one and a half of the Trypil TPP) and 1 GW of energy storage systems. At the same time, it is desirable that these new maneuvering capacities are of different types, for example, compact gas power plants or modern heat generation using biogas and biofuel.

It all sounds like a dream right now…

Generation losses are unprecedented, the risk of further attacks remains, the construction of defense structures takes a long time, and the increase in the number of air defense systems is still at the stage "Ukraine urgently needs air defense, said Josep Borrell."

There are many reasons for concern among energy experts, and the available, not theoretical, tools for combating the shortage are actually very limited – either imports or the declaration of a state of emergency.

Importing electricity is the most marketable and, accordingly, significantly cheaper way to balance the energy system than emergency assistance. And it seems that we are already integrated into the ENTSO-E energy association, but the synchronization process is not fast, it is rather gradual, it requires the fulfillment of organizational and technical prerequisites, and then also an analysis of the impact on all participants. In short, everything is serious, slow, and our obvious force majeure is unlikely to speed anything up. We are already moving, one might say, at cosmic speed, because we started with a capacity of 100 MW and increased it to 1,700 MW in a year and a half. Moreover, after the final transition in March 2024 to European electricity trade rules, commercial exchange can take place with all neighboring ENTSO-E member countries – Romania, Slovakia, Poland, Hungary, and Moldova.

The national energy company "Ukrenergo" assures that their European colleagues are currently investigating the possibilities of their trunk networks to determine the possible volumes of further increase in the available capacity of commercial electricity exchange between Ukraine and the European Union. They are worried about the stability of the European energy system, which explains such a cautious approach. According to market experts, this will make it possible, in the most positive scenario, to add another 500 MW of capacity. It still won't be enough, but it will be easier with them than without.

Further increases require additional interconnectors – connectors that allow electricity to pass between separate networks or connect synchronous networks. Interconnectors, in fact, make it possible to trade electricity between territories. Therefore, increasing such network connections would really help Ukraine gain more from joining ENTSO-E by expanding opportunities for trade. Good news: in the investment program of the National Energy Company "Ukrenergo" this year, funds are laid for the construction of a new powerful line to increase the carrying capacity of electricity trade with Romania. The bad news: the construction period, according to the forecast of the National Energy Company "Ukrenergo", is two years.

At the same time, we always remember that we are still talking about imports, which, although cheaper than emergency aid, are not free. And also about the need to protect the substations that provide these imports, which brings us back both to the problems of the adequacy of air defense systems and to the not fast enough construction of protective structures. In addition, any increase in imports does not solve the main problem of the balance, namely the transfer of energy capacities to the south and east of the country, to the regions that suffer the most from the deficit in the energy system. Unfortunately, even the biggest optimists of the energy sector do not have good news for them.