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Parliamentary Formalities. Will Arakhamia, Who Fell into Disfavour, Be Able to Drag the Prime Minister Along with Him?

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Parliamentary Formalities. Will Arakhamia, Who Fell into Disfavour, Be Able to Drag the Prime Minister Along with Him? © Скріншот з відео

The latest personnel changes in the government's financial block, which we described in detail last week, are a signal of the beginning of major upheavals in the country's government. Bankova Street has cut off the financial head of the long-established triumvirate of Davyd Arakhamia, Denys Shmyhal, and Danylo Hetmantsev, and the head of the Servant of the People faction, Davyd Arakhamia, has lost the keys to the main "state safe", namely the country's tax service. It is worth remembering that before this, the operational "management" of the State Border Service of Ukraine was handled by the head of the relevant parliamentary committee, Danylo Hetmantsev. (In addition, it is worth noting that the office of the President of Ukraine has directly controlled the state customs since last summer, and after the entry into financial monitoring of Philip Pronin, that is, a person trusted by him and Deputy Prime Minister Oleksiy Kuleba). Arakhamia can be called a big extra "mouth", but it would be possible to tolerate him for some time, if he had not discredited himself too much. For the political leaders on Bankova Street, the investigation of the journalist of the Ukrainian Internet publication "Ukrainian Truth" Mykhailo Tkach on the leading enterprise of the petrochemical industry of Ukraine "Karpatneftekhim" became very painful. Could the driver of the head of the presidential faction facilitate the filming of an interview in the government quarter? How is this even possible? Moreover, it was recorded who and how handed over documents printed from the register of the state tax service. That is, this can be called a betrayal that was done by people from the very heart of the team. In addition, the conversation of the president with Davyd Arakhamia, of course, was very unflattering. Davyd Arakhamia was accused of "playing" on the side of independent media, that is, the enemy. And he had nothing to answer to this. In this way, one can say that trust can no longer be restored. And yet, this is just a pretext for the sharp movements of the political leaders on Bankova Street in relation to the position and field of legitimacy of Arakhamia, and not the reason. The reason is precisely that a major pre-election optimization of the management system and flows is in full swing. In addition, it is worth noting that the political leaders on Bankova Street have put their bets on their new favorite, namely Deputy Prime Minister Oleksiy Kuleba.

But it is worth noting that Davyd Arakhamia still has a "leash" from the prime minister (he has repeatedly ensured Denys Shmyhal immunity), as well as the necessary box with the "cubes" of the faction and satellites, which Arakhamia has been shuffling for the past five years. Thus, he already knows each of them by touch.

For the President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the parliament is a "side effect": Zelenskyy has long devalued the work of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine, as a separate branch of government. However, it is impossible to remove the role of parliament from the process of reshuffling the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine and adopting laws. This applies to both those laws that concern only some personal well-being and interests, and those that are focused on successful European integration actions. Moreover, it is worth noting that the adoption of the latter allows achieving a good result in a not very favourable scenario of events both in front of partners and in front of the electorate.

Therefore, the guarantor of the Constitution of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy has to comply with some of its formalities and chop off heads within the framework of the "optimization" of power carefully.

The President and his faction. Together is impossible and apart is impossible

The once random formation of the list of the "Servant of the People" faction gave natural consequences, namely, a non-subject faction that owes everything to the leader. The President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy resembles a creditor who, through his "collectors", demands and takes "debts" from people's deputies. It is worth emphasizing that over the five years of the parliamentary term, the communication of the President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy with his faction has shrunk from the commanding scope of meetings in Truskavets to grey and uninteresting educational meetings in the format of video conferences in ZOOM with a small political faction of 30-40 people's deputies. Such meetings are carried out without any hope of feedback. The main message is his mood, under which is the desire to retain power, and therefore control over the necessary number of "buttons" in the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine.

However, it is worth saying that the "buttons" in the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine have not been working as they should for a long time. From this circumstance, a partnership has grown between the top of the "Servants of the People" faction and the parliamentary satellite groups ("Dovira" and "For the Future!"), which support the once powerful mono-majority, and they also have to use the shameful necessity of using the services of not only the opposition, but also the remnants of the representatives of the "Opposition Platform - For Life". There is no need to talk carefully and tenderly with other party representatives, but it is becoming possible to simply negotiate on mutually beneficial terms.

It is worth noting that three conditional groups have formed within the "Servants of the People" faction. The first is the narrowest of those who still hope to remain in the president's team, being part of the small "Servants of the People" faction. The second group consists of those who want to stay in power but have already realized that they will not be able to become members of the faction under President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, and therefore they are actively searching for a new political locomotive. Participants of the third group want to quickly resign their mandate as a people's deputy of Ukraine and go about their business affairs. It is worth noting that this is also a fairly common plan. This approach has become especially common against the background of the general fear of receiving some kind of punishment or getting into an unpleasant situation if the military makes claims to the authorities. The first wave of disappointed parliamentary representatives of the Servant of the People party who are avoiding military service was formed a year ago, when 60 applications for resignation of mandates were on the desk of the Vice-Speaker of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine Oleksandr Kornienko. Then the pressure of political figures from the Servant of the People party, who had already understood the real state of affairs, was contained. However, it is impossible to contain silent sabotage. It is important to note that the viscous atmosphere of "demobilization" is not so much a political phenomenon as a psychological one. Thus, everyone knows that the "ship" of the "Servant of the People" party, broken by an unplanned long voyage, will soon go to the dock and be dismantled for spare parts. Its captain and crew can no longer be together, but they cannot be apart either.

You remember how it all began... Truskavets, October 2021
You remember how it all began... Truskavets, October 2021

Money has ceased to be the key motivation for voting by representatives of the "Servant of the People" party, and due to the limited resources, there are now an order of magnitude fewer proposals on Bankova Street. However, no stimulation is needed if today a people's deputy is faced with the question of his personal future. The cancellation of Lozovyi's amendments is a potential problem for many. This means that there were no votes even to include the bill in the agenda. Just as there are none for a number of bills important for President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Thus, the bill #11146 on the placement, design and construction of power units #3 and #4 of the Khmelnitskyi nuclear power plant was defeated. In addition, it is worth noting that the same list included a long-term decision on the bill #11469 on dual citizenship. That is, what goes around comes around.

The faction that has never learned to serve the people and has not fought for its subjectivity is “dissolving” in dishonest agreements, internecine claims and conflicts. In addition, it is worth noting that today two key parliamentary committees have already been blocked. In addition to the committee on law enforcement headed by Serhii Ionushas (a kind of “avatar” of the deputy head of the Office of the President of Ukraine Tatarov), the committee on the organization of state power, local self-government, regional development and urban development, headed by the head of the Servant of the People party Olena Shulyak, has not been functioning since October. Her obvious political "drift" into the team of the former Vice Prime Minister Oleksandr Kubrakov, who was once thrown overboard, does not allow her to sit on "two chairs" in a party that is no longer her own. Moreover, this sitting did not produce any results, except for corruption scandals that compromise, among other things, the President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy. In addition, it is worth noting that Olena Shulyak herself, according to our sources in the committee, is ready to resign (without waiting for the vote in the hall on this procedure), but on condition that she resigns her deputy mandate. It is unlikely that she will be allowed to leave gracefully and calmly into Kubrakov's team. Whom, by the way, the political leaders on Bankova Street decided to slightly control just in case, making him an adviser to the Minister of Defense of Ukraine. Political parties such as "Dovira" and "For the Future!" do not bother at all. They are satellites and they benefit from both the current situation and the collapse of the majority, whose representatives are slowly diverging in different directions. The same old story, only in profile. But with the bonus of a coalition quota in the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine. But we understand that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy does not intend to create a government of people's trust with either Petro Poroshenko or Yulia Tymoshenko.

For Volodymyr Zelenskyy, it is logical, in order to save internal resources, to preserve the existing state of affairs in parliament. And with such a development of events, the easy, charismatic, and most importantly capable of reaching successful agreements Davyd Arakhamia, who has long served as the "glue", suited the president very well.

Why do we need Davyd Arakhamia if there is Ruslan Stefanchuk?

"They understand each other well, which not only saves time in resolving issues, but also provides psychological comfort to the president," our source on Bankova Street says about the relationship between the head of the faction and the President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy. – But at some point, apparently, Davyd Arakhamia got carried away. His economic interest outweighed common sense.

Davyd Arakhamia "bite" off the budget "pie" wherever he could, including "control" over the cigarette and other markets." Until now, the exchange of the "appetite" of the head of the presidential faction for the stability of the majority seemed equivalent to Bankova Street. Moreover, the "pie" is big, and everyone has something to bite into. Therefore, three years of war, the blocking of the same tax invoices in favor of Davyd Arakhamia and retired people's deputy Ihor Abramovich by the head of the relevant committee Danylo Hetmantsev and his trusted person at the head of the tax service went unnoticed. Once again: everything suggests that the obvious cynical corruption scheme, made for the business of the entire country, which out of nowhere formed a shadow with millions of bribes to the organizers, was tolerated by the President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy. And only the looming elections on the horizon (whenever they might eventually take place) and the related need to fulfill the tasks set before Deputy Prime Minister Oleksiy Kuleba, apparently forced Volodymyr Zelenskyy to cut off power to Davyd Arakhamia and transfer the flow of key financial “streams” under the control of the office. Not the state of the country, but simply the office. In addition, it is worth emphasizing that how determinedly the political leaders on Bankova Street intend to threateningly “wave” the sword at the wounded “dragon” will become clear very soon. Moreover, the faction leader has already noticeably grown a new “head” since Davyd Arakhamia has become close to the head of the Security Service of Ukraine Vasyl Malyuk. Their friendship against Yermak, who is invariably listening to a military general named Poklad (they say he is looking for discrediting information against both Malyuk and the head of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine Budanov), is understandable. Malyuk understands perfectly well that only the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine can remove him from office. And the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine without Davyd Arakhamia does not exist. And who can "catch up" with Arakhamia? Well, not the State Bureau of Investigation of Ukraine... Signals about how powerfully the desire of the head of the office of the President of Ukraine to close the parliamentary formalities is growing, are bursting out from all the dubious telegram channels of Bankova Street. Thus, the future of Davyd Arakhamia in this political office has become so uncertain and unstable as it has never been unstable. He will choke, like Sasha the dentist in his time. Ideally, it is important to take back those tens of millions that he earned in the war and give them to the Armed Forces of Ukraine." In addition, it is worth noting that Media killers have begun to actively shape public opinion regarding the head of the presidential faction. And, apparently, this is only the beginning.

Ruslan Stefanchuk
Ruslan Stefanchuk
Верховная Рада Украины

Speaker Ruslan Stefanchuk, who recently went through the "purgatory" of Telegram channel killers, knows well how painful it can be. However, Stefanchuk, when he got burned, as in the famous fairy tale, only became younger. The speaker managed not only to pull himself together psychologically, but also to concentrate on his work so much that 248 people's deputies of parliament voted for the toxic, corrupt and unconstitutional bill No. 6013. It is worth emphasizing that this case boldly fits into the title of the speaker's political portfolio. We wrote in detail about the "advantages" of the bill, including the hidden privatization of state and municipal enterprises, the thoughtless cancellation of the Economic Code, as well as the amendment to the bill on the cancellation of fines for unscrupulous suppliers of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, implemented into the bill right before the vote.

The scandal in the media was big. However, as were the tools of the speaker-lobbyist: starting with personal calls to people's deputies and ending with a promise to local governments to follow this law with a new one that would cancel all the unconstitutional norms of No. 6013. There are enough unofficial versions on the Internet explaining such persistence of Ruslan Stefanchuk, but in this story, we, like the political leaders on Bankova Street, are interested exclusively in the result. If Ruslan Stefanchuk was able to push such an unpleasant thing through the hall without Arakhamia, then why is Davyd Arakhamia needed in this situation?

But there is a nuance. The name of the people's deputy who neutralized the most scandalous amendment to the law on suppliers and the Ministry of Defense of the country (we are talking about introducing an amendment to the Budget Code of Ukraine, already supported by the relevant committee) is Davyd Arakhamia.

Thus, it turns out that the head of the faction essentially gave the President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy a reason to veto a law that has already become toxic in the public arena, and therefore once again showed how subtly he continues to play. So, if Volodymyr Zelenskyy signs the bill, this does not mean that Ruslan Stefanchuk will become the new “superglue” that can unite everyone and create a majority in the Ukrainian parliament.

Inside the Premiere. The Battle between Denys Shmyhal and Dmytro Kuleba

In essence, we are talking about a parallel battle between Andriy Yermak and Davyd Arakhamia. If there is no Davyd Arakhamia, then there will be no Denys Shmyhal. This can be called an axiom. Of course, you remember the long list of bright candidates from Bankova Street to replace the prime minister, who somehow miraculously stuck to the chair on Hrushevsky. Among the candidates to replace the prime minister are such names as Vitrenko, Fedorov, Chernyshov, Kubrakov, Sviridenko... All are out of the question. And now we have a new name, Dmytro Kuleba.

The Vice Prime Minister received a "mandate" from the President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy for the resource and administrative organization of the elections. In addition, it is worth noting that Dmytro Kuleba has already made a fairly large number of statements, organized a team in the key Ministry of Development of Communities and Territories of Ukraine and gave his people jobs in the tax, financial monitoring and Kyiv City Military Administration. We will not be afraid to assume that the direct initiator of the first blow to the financial head of the triumvirate of Davyd Arakhamia, Denys Shmyhal, and Danylo Hetmantsev, was Dmytro Kuleba, who, having taken on obligations to the President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy, was to receive the tools to fulfill them. However, in addition to finances, the key to preparing for the elections is the agreements on Bankova Street with local governments. After all, no one has cancelled the administrative resource. And in such a case, it is difficult to do without the efforts of the heads of regional state administrations. Therefore, it is critically important for Dmytro Kuleba to establish long-term contacts with regions and million-plus communities.

Well, what are the successes of the owner of the "mandate" from the President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy?

Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Oleksii Kuleba. May 22, 2012.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Oleksii Kuleba. May 22, 2012.

First, the reverse. When the confrontation between local government and the central government reached its peak, Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal masterfully shifted responsibility to the newly appointed "favourite" of Bankova Street, stating that the decision would be made by Deputy Prime Minister Dmytro Kuleba. As a result, the reverse subsidy money remained only with the frontline communities. And the return of the reverse to million-plus cities became an introductory condition for mayors for possible pre-election negotiations with non-political leaders on Bankova Street. In addition, it is worth noting that such conditions also included the ability to freely manage the budget and travel abroad. This fact is intended simply for familiarization and information to Oleksii Volodymyrovych.

Secondly, the above-mentioned bill No. 6013 directly had a negative impact on communities and their ability to create public utilities. It is worth noting that local authorities were the main critics of the bill. The parliament ignored Dmytro Kuleba's statement to our publication about the risks of handing over state enterprises and municipal enterprises to private owners. But the vice-premier did not insist too much, citing a transition period, which is not actually included in the law. While Ruslan Stefanchuk was "asserting himself", the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine continued to ruin Dmytro Kuleba's relations with the Local Government Bodies of Ukraine.

Thirdly, last week, the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, according to our sources in the government, on the command of Denys Shmyhal, submitted to the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine a resolution on payments to military personnel from local budgets. A scandal arose again, which Dmytro Kuleba learned about from the media.

Fourthly, the subventions and grants allocated for Dmytro Kuleba's ministry for "manual" distribution and pre-election bargaining with communities were negatively affected. Again, according to the source, Denys Shmyhal gave the order to the head of the Ministry of Finance of Ukraine and his deputy not to approve any parliamentary initiative that concerns the allocation of additional funds to the Local Self-Government Bodies of Ukraine. Moreover, when the allocated money has not been used, the subsequent decisions will be made by the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine and the parliament, which means that such people like Denys Shmyhal and Dmytro Arakhamia will do this.

Have you appreciated the beauty of the game? At this rate, Oleksii Kuleba will not only very quickly leave the list of candidates for the prime minister's seat, but also, in the status of vice-premier, will most likely lose any opportunity to guarantee the President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy the fulfillment of his obligations under the elections. This outcome of events may be possible due to a deep conflict with local authorities. And this is taking into account the fact that the issue of the importance of preparing for the presidential and parliamentary elections in the country, whenever they take place, is the number 1 priority for Volodymyr Zelensky's team. Thus, for Oleksii Kuleba this is not a very good development of events...Thus, it is worth saying that despite the efforts of the country's chief manager Andriy Yermak and his telegram channels, over which he has a strong influence, and which are now set on completing the "operation" to eliminate Davyd Arakhamia from the political and financial field, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has not yet closed his doors to the head of the faction. Moreover, after participating in one of the mass inauguration breakfasts/lunches with the newly elected American President Donald Trump, Davyd Arakhamia has planned a number of frequent trips to the United States of America to conduct informal negotiations. (Although here one can still guess on behalf of which future presidential candidate Davyd Arakhamia will act...) One way or another, but a separate "track" of Arakhamia with the Republicans, which irritated Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy before the election of Donald Trump, has now turned out to be very necessary. This track is especially necessary and important against the backdrop of the well-known various successes and victories of Andriy Ermak, who flew overseas in December.

Probably, Davyd Arakhamia will remain in the game exactly until the moment when the President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy, firstly, gets into a substantive dialogue with Donald Trump's team. Secondly, until the President of Ukraine makes a final decision to replace the multi-vector Denys Shmyhal, who is easily influenced and who is easily subject to change, with only his (and Andriy Yermak's) "tin" Dmytro Kuleba. Thirdly, Davyd Arakhamia will remain in the game until Volodymyr Zelenskyy "finally tests" the speaker Ruslan Stefanchuk as a strategic replacement for Davyd Arakhamia in the Ukrainian parliament. (Kubrakov's return to the team and his sophisticated interview with the Babel publication, disseminated by Telegram channels close to Bankova Street, only confirm the seriousness of the intentions of the President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy. "Spoiler: Denys Shmyhal is to blame for everything.") Ruslan Stefanchuk, of course, will not be able to become such a brilliant communicator as the current head of the faction. It is worth noting that Davyd Arakhamia never forgets about his own interests, but always takes into account the wishes of other people. Out of a hundred pieces of "cake", he will "bite off" from each and he will be thanked for it. Speaking about Ruslan Stefanchuk, on the contrary, he has neither experience, nor resources, nor internal talent for such an approach to business. You can't just become Ostap Bender, you have to be born one. But Ruslan Stefanchuk can become a reliable "brick" in the new construction of Bankova Street, which has decided to go for a second term.

Read this article in Ukrainian and russian.

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