London vacation of General Zaluzhnyi

President Volodymyr Volodymyr Zelenskyy invited ex-commander-in-chief Valerii Zaluzhnyi to go to London. The idol of millions and the leader of not only trust ratings, but also political ones, agreed with a slightly heavy heart. Because he's tired. Because he doesn’t want to dive into the mud of politics and because he considered London, where he has good human and professional contacts, to be the best option for continuing his career.

As a result, the technological calculation of Bankova Street to remove a very annoying figure from the electoral field ideally overlapped with the unwillingness of Valerii Zaluzhnyi to become a politician and pose a real competition to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in the future presidential elections. However, history loves all kinds of surprises. And good students, when given homework to do during the holidays, sometimes do it brilliantly.

Today Zaluzhnyi is not ready not only for the struggle to govern the country, but also for governing it itself. He doesn't have much of the necessary personal experience for this job. He does not have a team and criteria for its selection. After all, it is very important to clearly understand why you are striving for this. What kind of people are you going to achieve this with? What rules and goals will you offer to a wounded and broken society and economy?

Is General Zaluzhnyi, greedy for knowledge, but far from politics and government, using the golden time correctly? With the knowledge of which people will he fill his empty political vessel? Will you want to prepare for a big goal? And will the people's love for the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine stand the test of distance and time in conditions when politicians on Bankova Street will make every effort to make it less strong?

During his tenure as Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and after his resignation, ZN.UA kept in touch with the general’s team, and sometimes with the ex-commander-in-chief Valerii Zaluzhnyi himself.

Incompatibility of idols

No matter how much you tell people: “Do not make yourself an idol,” the people will not listen. We are talking about any nation. And it is even more difficult to refrain from creating an idol during a war, when it is difficult not to love anyone, not to rely on anyone, not to see a father and protector in anyone. It would probably be appropriate to appeal to critical thinking, but it is not worth it, because in the modern world this is a remnant of the past and there is no point in remembering it at all due to the insignificance of the number of people who preserved it.

After the majority of the people stopped loving Volodymyr Zelenskyy and at the same time became disillusioned with the once adored Arestovych, Zaluzhnyi remained virtually the only or at least the dominant representative of the authorities (he in no way considers himself a politician), the people’s love for whom remained and grew stronger. What do all the open ratings that hype sociologists show us and the closed polls that politicians on Bankova Street constantly see? Obviously, these figures became one of the main reasons for Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s separation from Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valerii Zaluzhnyi.

Due to internal political competition, provoked by painful ambitions and the jealous nature of the president, accustomed to solo applause, they could no longer work together. For trust was destroyed, and as a result, unity of command in the army, and Headquarters turned into a systematic flogging and humiliation of Zaluzhnyi.

Many believe that Zaluzhnyi irritated Volodymyr Zelenskyy because in December 2023 he did not want to take on the figure of 500 thousand, voiced by the president as necessary for mobilization. In fact, their relationship turned bad immediately after the Russians withdrew from Kyiv. It was from this moment that the unity of their actions disappeared. The President of Ukraine did not tolerate objections and disputes as such, and Zaluzhnyi sometimes allowed himself to do so. In addition, the already difficult situation and irritation between Zaluzhnyi and the President of Ukraine were aggravated by stories with Zaluzhny’s presidential ambitions. And the crack between them turned into a split between the Supreme Commander-in-Chief of Ukraine and the Commander-in-Chief of Ukraine, which is unacceptable during a war.

Hugs from representatives of the authorities

Zaluzhnyi is one of those military men, from that military bone that does not bend in the face of the enemy, but bends in the arms of civil power. For us at ZN.UA, these hugs did not come as a surprise. Although, it can be assumed that Zaluzhny, defiantly hugging Volodymyr Zelenskyy during the final award ceremony after his resignation, not only demonstrated the character trait of a man of the system, but also extinguished the flame of public dissatisfaction with Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s decision to remove him. Obviously, he does not consider the current time suitable for public confrontation or civil conflict. And this may have been his first political decision.

The entire Zaluzhnyi team, which was sent to the disposal of the Minister of Defense of Ukraine, was made clear that there was no place for them in the current defense system of the country. It is worth noting that General Zaluzhnyi passed the military commissariat and received a conclusion that he was unfit for military service. According to ZN.UA, Zaluzhnyi wrote a report on his resignation from military service back in February, which lay on the desk of the new Ukrainian Defense Minister Umerov for several weeks.

Why did he write the report? Yes, because he knew that he and none of his team of experienced and significant generals in the Ukrainian army would be given the opportunity to command anywhere. They will not even be allowed to teach at the National Defence University of Ukraine. Thus, he knew that they would have nowhere to apply themselves and their knowledge. And two months after they are placed at the disposal of the Minister of Defense of Ukraine, they will receive only rank. In particular, Zaluzhnyi would receive UAH 1,762 for his military rank, without being able to do anything.

In order to retire and do something else, he needs to leave the service. Question: where to go? With such popularity, experience and such an age, at which it is still too early for him to be engaged only in the apiary.

Fear of politics

Could Zaluzhnyi have stayed in Ukraine and engaged in politics, as those who saw in the general an alternative to the unprofessional and corrupt government expected of him? Yes, he probably could have created his own public organization and started forming a team. But he didn't want to. At least at this stage. Politics annoys him and repulses him. He is frightened by his dependence on the oligarchs, whose financial resources have always been used in elections and have never been able to do without them. He is at a loss from the need to form a team outside the corset of the subordinate unity of command of the army. He is disgusted by the rudeness of comments and raids by bot farms, putting his life up for discussion by anyone who will tell him where he should defend his dissertation, with whom he should or should not take a selfie, discuss his children, family, wife, etc. The general's armor is not equal to thin human skin.

Zaluzhnyi today is simply not ready to be in an active political environment. Will he be ready for this later and will society need him when he may be ready? There is no answer to this question. Zaluzhnyi has time to develop the competencies he lacks and understand himself. He has time to take into account the mistakes of Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who decided to run for president in 2014, instructing him to prepare a package of documents for registration with the Central Election Commission of Ukraine, and then for five years he was only preparing for how to get into this chair, completely ignoring other tasks. Namely, to find out why candidates get into the Central Election Commission of Ukraine in the first place, with what knowledge they need to go there, and with what people.

Zaluzhnyi (assuming that the people will be patient enough to wait and will not find anyone else as an idol) has time to understand the working principles of the state, parliament, local authorities, energy, economics, and comprehensive foreign policy. Zaluzhnyi loves to study, and he loves academic education. For him, his dissertation at the National University "Odesa Law Academy", which was actually a discrediting factor for his admirers, was extremely important. For political strategists, a person who sees no problems in defending dissertations and taking selfies with odious political characters is an easy target. Well, let him study.

Now the honored, world-famous military leader is an empty political vessel, which, if he wants to go into politics, will have to be filled.

Another thing is who will do this? Or have you already started? But we don’t know this. Because Zaluzhnyi fought (how successfully is not the topic of this analysis) and never formed his own political team. Let’s not take into account the people who hung around and ingratiated themselves into trust - they don’t count now. The main bet has not been made. First of all, Zaluzhnyi himself, who will have to be responsible for what kind of people, what thoughts and ideas of what quality he will fill his future with. And it is also possible that this also concerns the future of the country.

However, it will not be so easy for Valerii Zaluzhnyi to work on improving his personal competencies, because the ambassador to Britain is, with all due respect, not the ambassador to Switzerland. After all, it is possible that the chaos happening in the United States of America will force London to take the lead in supporting Ukraine.

Naive Ambassador

In the entire history of the existence of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine, no one has ever made advance statements about sending an agrément – a request for the country’s consent to grant all diplomatic privileges and rights to the new ambassador. Such a statement violates diplomatic ethics, all written and unwritten rules of diplomacy. Even if non-public consultations and agreements between the parties have already taken place. But politicians on Bankova Street forced the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine to take this unprecedented step. Obviously, those in the presidential circle were afraid that Zaluzhnyi would change his mind. Moreover, we do not have a foreign minister who can tell the president that this is indecent. That's all.

Probably, we should not blame Dmytro Kuleba for this and hope that in his place there may be a person appointed by Volodymyr Zelenskyy who is able to say no to the president when he violates laws, rules and decency. Because it has long been clear to everyone that what has some shortcomings in our country only changes to something very similar, even if it is Artem.

So, everyone was predicted for the post of ambassador in London: Reznikov, Kuleba, and Kostin, but Zaluzhnyi hit the jackpot. But whether he will become a good ambassador is a big question.

A good ambassador is one who always has the opportunity to call the president, convey the necessary information to him, express his point of view and defend his position if necessary. Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy pick up the phone if Zaluzhnyi calls him? There are big doubts about this. Will the president be able to calmly listen to any recommendations from Ambassador Zaluzhnyi, given that no matter what conversation they had when they were in the emergency body of the highest military command, they began to quarrel with each other in the second minute due to accumulated irritation? There are no miracles.

The British side, like any host country, will, of course, try to use the ambassador as a person who can quickly convey the necessary signal to the most important ears. But when they are convinced that a person can neither convey information nor defend it once, twice, thirdly, fourthly, they will understand that this is a trumpet into which they can shout, but no one will hear on the other side. Do you think they will not lose interest in the war hero?

At the same time, Zaluzhnyi himself has absolutely no idea what an embassy and the work of an ambassador are. The staff of almost any embassy is a terrarium where “they crush, strangle, cut for every extra pound.” This is a submarine with all the crew problems that entails. And after the festive meeting, the new ambassador will face reality. Which will be expressed in daily denunciations against him to the Foreign Intelligence Service of the Russian Federation (SVR RF), the Main Directorate of Intelligence of the Ministry of Defence of Ukraine (HUR MOU), the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU), the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine and Bankova Street. Each of their denunciations will be directed towards its own trajectory.

For any departure from the host country, for any significant meeting, for arrival in Ukraine, for attracting a sponsor for a reception, for replacing an embassy employee – he will have to obtain permission from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine. Every move and conversation he makes will be known on Bankova Street. For a career diplomat, these are familiar living conditions, but for a general who commanded hundreds of thousands, this is captivity.

And he will also need to ask for some money to maintain the embassy, to purchase a photocopier and paper for it, persuading the clerks of the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry, whom he will not even see with binoculars. But at the same time, those clerks will drink so much blood from him that he has never donated so much blood even to soldiers.

Watchdogs

Zaluzhnyi wants peace. At least at this stage. He doesn't want to anger the "Mad Hatter", a man with a nervous system torn to shreds, by his presence at his table. A man who has a pack of watchdogs in his hands: one is called the State Bureau of Investigation of Ukraine (SBIU), the other is the Economic Security Bureau of Ukraine (ESBU), the third is the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU). Zaluzhnyi understands perfectly well that their eyes are already bloodshot and they are very angry. And, obviously, he does not consider it possible for himself to dance in a protective suit on the canine training ground.

Actual criminal cases in which he may be charged began to be opened on April 11, 2022. And similar cases multiplied. They are kept secret, but they are there. And if he had stayed here and, for example, created some kind of Think tank or civil defense organization to protect the rights of active military personnel, he could easily survive the attack of these dogs. Since it would be under public strong protection.

Now we see how, as expected, society reacted violently to the decision of the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. It is still looking for explanations: “Volodymyr Zelenskyy forced him”, “Zaluzhnyi didn’t want to, but there was no choice”, “his presence will be useful in London...” People are still feverishly inventing some kind of justification for the invented political hero.

And this is not a political hero. He is a military man. And his legs are simply moving apart on the political ice, which is full of betrayal and greed. Civil courage and military courage are different courages. Not all activists who take it upon themselves to resist the corrupt system will go across the front line to undermine bridges. Likewise, many military personnel will not fight bureaucratic lawlessness for the sake of the future of the country. The process of restructuring a person’s consciousness from a military system to a system of free civil society is hard internal work.

And when people realize that their idol did not live up to their trust, did not cope with the mission entrusted to him by the people, and left the race, the ratings will fall. Is Zaluzhnyi insured against the fact that after his ratings fall, these dogs will not be unleashed on him?

...We don’t know how Valerii Zaluzhnyi will use his London vacation, having accepted President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s offer. Will he become a good ambassador, will he use the time to melt his consciousness, learning to think as a statesman and form a team for future political activities? All this is his personal choice and decisions, on which something in our history may depend.

As a result, we can forget him and give a second term to Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who is prone to authoritarianism. Or, if rating of Valerii Zaluzhnyi remains at the same high level, but his competencies do not increase, get a second Yushchenko at the head of the country, who will be brought into power and left at the top, where he will consider that he no longer owes anything to anyone. Or maybe we will see the birth of a third idol. After all, a holy place never remains empty.

All this is part of a series of predictions. But today, unfortunately, we only know one thing for sure: Valerii Zaluzhnyi and the two dozen officers from his team, with their experience, mistakes and victories, are not needed by the system. The most obvious thing during the war would be to use these people for victory, but they are not needed just because the current government did not like them. As it turned out, the state does not need thousands of competent people.

 

Read this article in Ukrainian and russian.