Holding Your Breath. What A New Air Quality Study Shows

According to the data of the Global Burden of Disease project, in pre-war 2019, about 10% of health losses in Ukraine were related to air pollution. This led to 43 thousand premature deaths per year. This indicator is several times higher than, for example, in the countries of Northern Europe, where only 1% of health losses are due to air pollution.

Poor air quality most often affects cardiovascular diseases (ischemic heart disease, stroke), respiratory diseases (lower respiratory tract infections, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease), cancer of the trachea, bronchi, and lungs, as well as type II diabetes. People who live in Ukrainian cities with high concentrations of pollution have more than twice the risk of developing, for example, stroke or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, than those who live in conditions with very good air quality (Final Report Health Impacts And Social Costs Associated With Air Pollution In Larger Urban Areas Of Ukraine by Janne Estill, UNDP, 2022).

Those who believe that during war such problems recede into the background are right. But if we think about the future post-war reconstruction, we cannot ignore the problem that costs the lives of tens of thousands of Ukrainians every year.

The full-scale invasion created a unique situation where Ukrainian enterprises reduced emissions into the atmosphere. The number of private motor vehicles and its negative impact also decreased, as many Ukrainians were forced to move abroad. Instead, Ukrainian cities became the target of rocket attacks by Russian aggressors, which caused additional air pollution with harmful substances. To see the result of the interaction of these factors was the aim of the study Atmospheric Air Quality In Ukraine Before And During The Full-Scale Invasion, 2023 Edition, which was conducted by specialists of the NGO SaveDnipro. They compared data from the (just as an example) pre-war 2021 with data from 2022, when a full-scale invasion took place. And that’s what they learnt.

On the one hand, in 2022, a general tendency to decrease the level of atmospheric air pollution is recorded. See the comparison based on the comprehensive air pollution index. This index is calculated on the basis of average annual concentrations of harmful substances, considering their level of danger. In the vast majority of cities, this index in 2022 decreased compared to 2021. This especially applies to cities with a high industrial load.

A similar picture is recorded if we count the number of days exceeding the standards of the World Health Organization for such a type of pollution as suspended impurities (particles of various chemical compositions invisible to the human eye, which are often toxic and very dangerous to health). If in 2021 the average indicator for the 18 cities where the comparison was made was 116 days per year, then in 2022 there were only 54 such days.

At the same time, this trend of relative improvement did not lead to qualitative changes. Even in spite of the noticeable reduction in emissions from industry and transport, the concentration of harmful substances in the air of our cities exceeds safe levels. Moreover, the list of problematic substances that poisoned this or that city in 2022 practically coincides with the pollution profile observed in the "pre-war" 2021. The disappointing conclusion is that the main sources of emissions have remained the same. For industrial cities, these are emissions from non-modernized enterprises.

Each city has its own “profile” of problematic substances that cause the most pollution, and it has not changed qualitatively if we compare 2022 and 2021. And then the exceeding of maximum permissible concentration (MPC) of these substances is recorded. For example, a value of 3.0 in Figure 2 means that the MPC is exceeded three times (!)

Let’s emphasize it once again: even in 2022, during the shock reduction of production and reduction of industrial emissions, Ukrainian cities breathed dangerous air in which the maximum permissible concentrations were exceeded.

It is noteworthy that the representatives of industry also avoid emissions control fearing it like the plague. In the EU, which we are aiming to join, there is so-called monitoring on the pipe. Special devices — automated control systems (ACS) — are installed at the emission sources of the largest enterprises. They record emissions from a specific source automatically, and these indicators are available to control institutions online.

In Ukraine, the government resolution No. 272 of March 28, 2023, also declared the use of the ASC. However, not at the biggest polluting enterprises, as in Europe, but... at those that will be built after the war.

Who suggested such an extraordinary idea to the government? Here it is worth mentioning that enterprises pay eco-tax, which depends on the volume of emissions. While there is no “monitoring on the pipe”, the tax is calculated on the basis of methods, the accuracy of which depends on the integrity of those making calculations.

Public organizations, including the organizers of the SaveDnipro NGO research, were outraged by this government decision. Then the Ministry of Environmental Protection and Natural Resources of Ukraine created a working group to which it involved, in particular, representatives of business associations that actually act for large polluters. But constructive work did not work out. Business representatives denied the scientifically proven link between air pollution and public health. It was argued that urban populations are actually dying out of poverty, not of harmful emissions. And the establishment of ACS will lead to instant bankruptcy and closure of enterprises.

Even considering the real economic problems of Ukrainian industry associated with a full-scale invasion, this business position looks, to put it mildly, strange. And it's not just about denying reality.

Firstly, it ignores the negative economic impact of disability due to illness and premature mortality. The population of Ukraine is also a labor resource, which is quite limited. According to the pre-war calculations of UN experts, in the period from 2022 to 2035, in case of improvement of air quality, the cumulative increase in GDP would amount to about 15 billion dollars. Of course, these calculations are no longer relevant because of the war, but they show the scale of the problem’s impact on Ukraine’s economy and domestic business.

Secondly, business is shooting itself in the foot since Ukraine’s path to the EU involves the implementation of European environmental legislation. Big Ukrainian business is capable of lobbying the government regulations it needs inside Ukraine. But it is unlikely that he will be able to convince Brussels to abandon the already adopted EU environmental regulations.

However, it seems that the tactic chosen by the owners of large polluting enterprises is to prolong the process as much as possible. So don’t be surprised if Ukraine starts bargaining for the opportunity to poison its own citizens for an additional number of years during the EU accession negotiations. After all, ecological modernization of enterprises from the point of view of business lobbyists in the government is only losses. Although in fact it is eco-modernization and the transition to the use of the best available technologies that opens access to the EU market for Ukrainian products.

Thirdly, even if enterprises have problems with financing environmental protection measures, this is not solved by denying the problem as such. In such cases, they create "road maps" that consider, in particular, reservations from the business side. But instead of finding a compromise, business shows the same cynicism with which it ignored the problems of industrial pollution throughout the period of independence.

The bottom line is that mantras about a future so-called green recovery should not comfort you. Even if investments in new “green” projects and technologies come to Ukraine, this will not solve the problems of the existing “dirty” industry and energy industry. Pay attention not to the words of the government, but to its actions. When the government starts the recovery of coal-fired power plants, ask it if it is really about “green recovery” and “green transition”?

The world is now divided not only along the “democracy-authoritarianism” axis. Instead, it is also divided along the axis “green technologies – dirty enterprises”. And we will not be able to pass “between the droplets” in either the first or the second case.