What will corruption look like during the Great Reconstruction of Ukraine, if the government step on the "estimated" butterfly

It would seem that the question of the construction estimate and the question of the vector of geopolitical development of Ukraine are completely different things and have nothing in common between them. However, in reality, everything starts with something small...

Let's imagine that the war is over and the victorious president, having carefully prepared, starts rebuilding the destroyed state, expecting that investors have already lined up and prepared capital. However, judging by the large scale of corruption in our country at all levels, which is stubbornly ignored by the authorities, it is unlikely that politicians on Bankova Street realize how difficult the struggle for money for recovery will actually be. It is unlikely that they expect that every penny will have to be won with no less effort than every meter of our land now.

Sovereign investors have already shown their attitude to "usual Ukrainian practices" by creating a separate institution. It deals with the actions of fraudsters and corrupt people who will use the money that will be allocated to help Ukraine. Because Western politicians are responsible to their electorates for the distribution of their funds.

However, the question arises whether we can provide potential investors with equivalent guarantees regarding the intended use, preservation and multiplication of funds? In the conditions of the current situation, we are unlikely to be able to do this. The story about the "golden eggs" of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine is not something exceptional. Here are the corruption stories that ZN.UA wrote about only recently: road maintenance schemes, coal schemes, "grain" schemes, schemes in Economic Security Bureau of Ukraine, conspiracy in the electricity market, tens of millions earned by the State Enterprise National Nuclear Energy Generating Company "Energoatom" (SE NNEGC) on big bags... That's why it's quite difficult not to notice this negative trend. In this way, it can be noted that no matter which rope you pull, everyone leads to Bankova Street...

Of course, the Earth is round, money is not only in the West. Investments can be sought in the Middle East or China. Tolerance for corruption is higher there, demands are lower, and any mention of electorate accountability sounds like an inappropriate joke.

Well, maybe our country really doesn't need those dollars if Chinese and Arab investors are lining up for us?

The deceptive thing about Chinese "investments" is that, first, they always get more from these investments than the host countries. And secondly, the absolutely tolerant attitude of the Chinese to the way in which all kinds of aborigines earn a margin from their loans corrupts the local elites. What, in fact, helps these elites to hold on to power and prosper. For example, on the one hand, China is helping the Iranian government in its confrontation with the West, and on the other hand, it is supplying the same government with facial recognition systems to suppress internal protests.

Similarly, the representatives of the Arabian Peninsula, where Volodymyr Zelenskyy immediately after the inauguration started negotiations on investments, are indifferent to all kinds of compliance and anti-corruption examinations. It is worth noting that the negative consequences of cooperation with these countries will be the same.

Therefore, Ukrainians will have to forget about any belonging to the world of Western democracy in the event that our authorities, having failed to reach an understanding with Western partners on anticorruption issues, will aim at the Sino-Arab vector of cooperation and withdraw Ukraine from the Euro-Atlantic supply chains of goods, technologies and weapons.

This is a very radical scenario that Yanukovych has already gone through. He accumulated billions in loans from China, which were embezzled by all members of the "Party of the Regions". And then in 2013 he decided not to sign any agreements with the European Union, and we all remember what happened next.

Most likely, Maidan is also remembered on Bankova Street. Therefore, it is more likely that they will choose a deception scenario that is more inherent and familiar to them. This is when with one hand they describe on paper that everything will happen in accordance with anti-corruption criteria, transparently and beautifully, and with the other they collect the margin from construction estimates. However, we already see this negative scenario and, unfortunately, it is not new for us.

In 2020, Ukraine received significant funds from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for the successful work of the Fund to fight against COVID-19. Half of its money was spent on asphalting roads, which was called a measure to revive the economy. At that time, the public tried to obtain data on how the money was actually spent, but the employees of the Ukravtodor or the State Service of Special Communications and Information Protection of Ukraine did not disclose to "Prozorro" (a public electronic procurement system) estimates with the prices of building materials. Lawyers of the Anti-Corruption Action Center or AntAC have been demanding the employees of "Ukravtodor" to provide these files for several months. In the end, they managed to get documents regarding repair work on one of the roads, which was carried out with funds that were supposed to be allocated for the fight against COVID-19. 

The highway service in the Poltava region from the third request provided an estimate for the repair of the R-60 route at a cost of UAH 445 million. This renovation is 40% financed from the fund to fight against COVID-19. According to the information declassified by the program of journalistic investigations that exposes the corruption schemes of Ukrainian officials "Our money with Denys Bihus", the prices of asphalt and other building materials were overestimated by a total of UAH 90 million. That is, 20% of the half-billion-dollar contract went to the margin.

A repetition of the scenario of hiding the Ukrainian margin from foreign donors since that time has become not only more likely, but also more legalized. Right now, Kubrakov's team is changing the regulatory framework for the construction industry precisely to make it more understandable to foreign companies. It is very crucial that during these changes to the agreed conditions, the importance of publishing the prices of construction materials used in civil construction and road repair does not disappear. Indeed, foreign partners do not have such a detailed process, but they do not have such a level of corruption, such schematic creativity, and such impunity as we have. The inflated prices of building materials were, are and will remain the main source for extracting margins. Thus, the publication of estimates remains the best guarantee for the fight against corruption.

In fact, asphalt, concrete and metal in complex estimates are the same secret ingredients as the prices of eggs, potatoes and apples, which were hidden by the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine. As soon as the public managed to get a law on the publication of the prices of certain products to be adopted, those prices immediately dropped. At first, the price of potatoes there was UAH 21-27 per kilogram, while the store price was UAH 7-9. When the ZN.UA investigation showed these scandalous prices, the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine lowered its potato price to UAH 14-18. And now, in general, under the compulsion of the new law, new tenders are being held for food for soldiers with a maximum price of potatoes of UAH 9.60 per kilogram. That is, potatoes will be bought almost at the price of a regular store. It is worth noting that these purchase prices of products are not for the soldiers of Lviv or Ternopil who are in the rear. This is for military units in the Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia regions (see the appendix with limit prices to the catalog).

This is the power of a publication about the distribution of estimated money, because it clearly and honestly shows how and for what state funds are actually allocated.

And on the example of this publication, which exposes the true state of affairs, an effective option was found to fight corruption during the Great Reconstruction of Ukraine and, as a result, preserve the western vector of development.

The first is prevention: it is necessary to engrave in blood on the marble the obligation of customers to publish in "Prozorro" exactly the estimated prices of building materials. This should be done without any compromises and sad stories about "international rules". Without it, American and European voters will have a beautiful DREAM, behind the facade of which the most interesting things will happen. It is worth noting that this applies not only to central authorities, but also to regional ones. There are also people who willingly embezzle state funds. For example, in the renovation of a hospital in Kamianske, Dnipropetrovsk region, wall insulation was used at a price six (!) times higher than store prices.

The second is the inevitability of the punishment: it will be necessary to expel Yermak as far as possible from Bankova Street, ensuring the real independence of the National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine (NABU) and the Specialized Anti-Corruption Prosecutor's Office (SAPO) –  the only bodies still capable of fighting corruption, and not with competitors. The times when corruption stories could be dismissed with a message about a hostile information and psychological operations (PSYOP) are rapidly coming to an end.

It seems that for an honest and effective distribution of public funds, not so much is needed, namely openness and control. However, even this minimum is unaffordable for political figures on Bankova Street.

It seems that the question of the openness of estimates is certainly not the cornerstone of the country's life, but it is exactly the butterfly on which, in the famous story of Bradbury, travelers to the past stepped, and when they returned home, they found out that their liberal world had turned into a dictatorship. Therefore, it is better not to step on this butterfly.

Read this article in russian and Ukrainian.