Putin wants Kyiv again: will there be an offensive from Belarus?

What place does the Kremlin assign to Lukashenka in its plans

article by VOLODYMYR KRAVCHENKO, Observer of the international policy department of ZN.UA

What? Again? Are the Russians getting ready to go to Kyiv again?

Residents of the northern regions of Ukraine - Kyiv, Volyn, Rivne, Zhytomyr and Chernihiv - were disturbed by the information that supposedly at the end of November or December, a Russian task force of 120-170 thousand troops would again move from Belarus to the Ukrainian capital. Alarmist moods are rising amid warnings that a second wave of invasion will be preceded by massive rocket and artillery fire.

Nervousness and anxiety are increased by the information published by Russian media – they state, despite a series of heavy defeats at the front and heavy losses in personnel, Putin has not abandoned plans to seize Kyiv and is ready to fight for years to achieve his goal, regardless of losses.

So will there be an offensive by the Russians from Belarus in the near future? Will the northern front reopen?

Ukrainian military intelligence reassures: the talk about a coming invasion from Belarus is a Russian information-psychological special operation. Its goal, firstly, is to force the Ukrainian military command to redeploy units from the eastern and southern fronts to the Ukrainian-Belarusian border to protect Kyiv, transport and energy infrastructure. Secondly, to spread panic among Ukrainians.

Nevertheless, a repeat of the spring offensive is possible: there are plans in Moscow for another opening of the northern front.

According to one of the confidants of ZN.UA, the military plans of the Russians provide for the main strike in the Korosten-Zhytomyr-Vinnytsia direction. The goal is to encircle the Ukrainian grouping around Kyiv, pressing it to the Dnieper. A necessary condition for the implementation of this plan is the destruction of bridges across the Dnieper.

The Russians can use three-ton concrete-piercing bombs for this. The bombing of the bridges will be preceded by a drone attack to detect Ukrainian air defenses and the subsequent destruction of Ukrainian air defense systems by missiles.

But as our informed interlocutor points out, these are military plans. Whether they will be implemented in the near future depends on whether an appropriate military-political decision has been made. Say, the Russians had military plans to seize the Crimea since 2012. However, they were implemented only in 2014. Another ZN.UA source clarifies: Putin’s military-political decision to re-invade from the north depends on whether Belarus will participate in it, since for the operation “To Kyiv!"” Russians do not have the sufficient forces of their own.

According to one of the high-ranking interlocutors of ZN.UA from the Ukrainian authorities, there are 9,000 poorly trained and armed Russian military personnel in Belarus now who do not pose a serious threat to Ukraine.

However, another ZN.UA source gives other, more pessimistic figures: there are about 3,000 “Wagners” and 20,000 Russian servicemen in Belarus (30,000 according to another source), located mainly along the Russian-Belarusian border. It takes two or three days to relocate them to the Ukrainian-Belarusian border. But even this number is not enough to carry out the operation: for its success, a task force of 80-100 thousand officers and men is needed (this is 40-50 BTGs).

This information generally corresponds to the assessment released by the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense and the Kyiv City Military Administration: currently, there is no sufficiently strong strike force on the territory of Belarus, and the Ukrainian defense forces on the northern border are ready to repel a probable enemy attack.

To be sure, the Russians will form a fist to strike again at the Ukrainian capital. But without the participation of Belarusians, the risk of a Russian invasion from Belarus is minimized. According to ZN.UA sources, there are no markers indicating the preparation of Belarusian military personnel for direct participation in the invasion.

Firstly, the creation of strike groups in Belarus has not been recorded yet. (It takes six weeks to create them.) Secondly, Belarusian servicemen do not undergo combat coordination with Russian servicemen. Perhaps this will take place as part of the “Union Shield-2023” exercises planned for next year. Thirdly, Ukraine did not record any covert mobilization in Belarus. And the size of the Belarusian army increased slightly, compared to March.

In addition, Russia pumps weapons and equipment from the “union state” to the maximum. This is not only about artillery shells and MLRS rockets. The Russians removed more than 100 tanks and 150 armored vehicles from Belarus, and those that remain are mostly of little use. Finally, what is important is that it is the autumn slush now, which prevents active offensive operations.

However, for Putin, Kyiv remains the same coveted prize as Tsargrad was for Kyiv princes, and Constantinople – for Russian emperors. Capturing the “mother of Russian cities” will make Putin feel like a winner in his global war against the West.

Therefore, the Russians will press the self-proclaimed President of Belarus Alyaksandr Lukashenka, seeking an order from him on the direct participation of Belarusian soldiers in the invasion of Ukraine. Moscow is no longer satisfied with the evasions of Minsk, seen since February 24, and its indirect participation of Belarus in the Russian-Ukrainian war, when the territory of the “union state” is used as a bridgehead for combat operations against Ukraine.

Lukashenka is not interested in the Belarusian military participating in the invasion, as this could lead to the collapse of his regime. But although Lukashenka is against it, there is a group in his entourage (it should be noted, loyal to the self-proclaimed president) that holds a different point of view. In particular, State Secretary of the Security Council Alexander Volfovich and Defense Minister Viktar Khrenin are ready for direct participation of Belarusian soldiers in the invasion.

But the situation in Minsk is developing very dynamically.

The unexpected death of Foreign Minister Vladimir Makei weakened the positions of opponents of Belarus' direct entry into the war. (This group also includes KGB chief Ivan Tertel, presidential administration chief Igor Sergeenko, and Prime Minister Roman Golovchenko.) We don’t know whether Makei's death was due to natural causes or a special operation by the Russian special services. In the end, the Russians benefited the most from it.

Firstly, one of the main opponents of the direct participation of Belarus in the war was eliminated. Secondly, one of the main channels of unofficial dialogue between Minsk and the West was interrupted. Thirdly, the death of a loyal minister can bring Lukashenka out of a state of peace of mind and push him to change his policy towards participation in the war. Finally, fourthly, Makei's death became a warning to Lukashenka, who maniacally clings to power and is terrified of assassination attempts.

According to ZN.UA, in Yerevan, where the CSTO meeting was held, Lukashenka had already been threatened to remove him from his post. And a few days before, at a meeting with the self-proclaimed president of Belarus, the head of the KGB warned his boss that the Russians were preparing an assassination attempt on him. After that, Lukashenka instructed him to work through unofficial channels with Western countries on the issue of providing security guarantees for him and his family.

This is not the first time that the self-proclaimed president, whose room for maneuver is rapidly shrinking, is seeking dialogue with the West in an effort to negotiate security guarantees: in early March, his emissaries were already working on this issue. But since Lukashenka could not fulfill the main condition of the West - to withdraw Russian troops from the territory of Belarus - the negotiations were curtailed.

It is quite possible that the Russians carried out a special operation, using Tertel’s sources in the Russian leadership unwittingly to sow panic in Lukashenka, who is clinging to power and painfully worried about his son Kolenka, and thus push the self-proclaimed president of Belarus to make a decision on the direct participation of his country in the war. A more radical option for involving the Belarusian army in the aggression against Ukraine is the physical elimination of Lukashenka.

According to analysts at the Robert Lansing Institute, sources in the Russian military leadership have confirmed that the Kremlin has already made a decision to eliminate Lukashenka. The Kremlin plans to present fabricated evidence of “the involvement of Ukraine and Poland led by NATO intelligence” in the assassination of Lukashenka, even if the assassination attempt fails. This situation will formally become the reason for the participation of Belarusian troops in the war against Ukraine.

Some of our informed sources note: at the moment, the scenario of the physical elimination of the self-proclaimed president by the Russians is even more likely than a palace coup staged by the Belarusians. Putin has a long hated Lukashenka and became disillusioned with the reliability of his ally.

What stops the Kremlin? Fear that the system built by Lukashenka will simply collapse. And the Russian leadership does not need the disorganization of the Belarusian authorities in a situation where it wants Belarus to enter the war directly.

Read this article in russian and Ukrainian.