For Them, Russia is Also a Threat. Important Allies for Ukraine

Why Ukraine absolutely needs to develop a strategically important partnership with the countries of the North Baltic region

"War of attrition" requires Ukraine to expand the circle of partners, find reliable allies and further develop strategic cooperation. The accession of Finland and Sweden to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) caused a transformation of the geopolitical landscape in the Baltic Sea and Arctic region. At the same time, a consolidated and collective regional player appeared on the north-eastern flank of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and the European Union, operating in the format of both the Nordic Five (NB5 – Sweden, Norway, Finland, Denmark, Iceland) and the North Baltic Cooperation (NB8 – Sweden, Norway, Finland, Denmark, Iceland, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia).

It is also important to note that all the countries of the Northern Baltic Cooperation are part of the Joint Expeditionary Force (JEF). It is a Northern European multinational military partnership led by Great Britain and designed for rapid response and expeditionary operations, which has been fully operational since 2018. It is worth emphasizing that Great Britain is the driver of such associations, because it not only wants, but also has real opportunities — geopolitical, financial, and military – to be their leader. Great Britain was the most active promoter of Sweden and Finland joining the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). It was Great Britain that quickly and without hesitation provided these countries with its security umbrella before they joined the Alliance. And, what is very important, the attitude towards Russia on the territory of Misty Albion is not only harsh, but also stable.

What else is important to know and understand when we talk about the development of the northern vector of Ukraine's foreign policy?

First of all, it is important to realize the consolidated potential of the countries that are our natural partners and potential allies in the north of the European continent. Today, the Nordic and Baltic countries are a powerful and integrated region on the economic map of Europe and the world:

• The region is considered the fifth largest economy in Europe and the 12th largest economy in the world.
• About 60 Scandinavian companies are included in the Global-2000 list of the world's largest public companies according to Forbes.
• The population of the region is 27 million, the Gross domestic product (GDP) is 1.5 trillion US dollars.
• The Nordic countries are among the top 12 in Europe in terms of the Gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, and Norway's GDP per capita of $94,660 is more than double the European Union average of $44,200.
• The countries of Northern Europe have about 5% of the population of the European Union, but they provide almost 10% of the total Gross domestic product (GDP).

In addition, according to the World of Statistics, in 2023 the countries of the North Baltic Cooperation format occupied an important place among the states that provided financial and military assistance to Ukraine:

1. USA – 67 billion dollars.
2. Great Britain – 10 billion dollars.
3. Germany – $9 billion.
4. NB8 countries – $7.66 billion.

In 2023, the contribution of the countries of the North-Baltic cooperation format exceeded the contribution of such large countries as Japan - 5.6 billion dollars, Canada - 5 billion dollars, Poland - 4 billion dollars, and the Netherlands - 3.5 billion dollars.

Three dimensions of joint work of Ukraine with the countries of the North-Baltic cooperation

Today, cooperation between Ukraine and the countries of the North-Baltic cooperation unfolds in three key dimensions: 1) signing of security agreements between Ukraine and individual NB8 countries; 2) adoption and implementation by NB8 countries of long-term support programs for Ukraine; 3) support for the stability of Ukraine and its European integration aspirations.

1. Security agreements

The countries of Northern Europe and the Baltic States immediately adopted the Joint Declaration on Support for Ukraine of July 12, 2023 (hereinafter referred to as the "Group of Seven" Declaration), which was adopted by the "Group of Seven" (G7) and the European Union at the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) summit meeting in Vilnius.

To date, security agreements have already been signed between Ukraine and Denmark, Finland and Latvia. The President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, noted that in the coming months, Ukraine may sign bilateral security agreements with Norway and Sweden, as well as with one more Baltic country (apparently, Estonia). At the same time, political leaders in Kyiv, unfortunately, still have not resolved the issue of the appointment of acting Ambassador of Ukraine to Norway.

Ukraine is interested in achieving a synergistic effect from the implementation of security agreements with the NB8 countries. In this context, it is important:

First, to develop a regular strategic dialogue between the NB8 countries and Ukraine on strengthening defense, stability, as well as reforms on the way to membership in the European Union.

Secondly, Ukraine and the NB8 countries can be allies in determining the spectrum of military and political threats that the Russian Federation creates for the European security system and the whole world.

Thirdly, the NB8 countries can be our partners and allies in the matter of interpreting the political goals of the Ukrainian-Russian war and the formats of its end, taking into account the interests and prospects of restoring security on the European continent and in the Eurasian region.

Fourth, Ukraine's cooperation with the NB8 countries can radically affect the effectiveness of economic sanctions against the Russian Federation. Today, Russia's shadow fleet threatens an ecological disaster in the Baltic Sea, through which the Russian Federation exported up to 50% of its crude oil. Sooner or later, the actions of the Russian Federation in the Baltic Sea, which endanger the security of the NB8 countries, will receive an adequate collective response.

Fifth, it is important for Ukraine that the issue of restoring Ukraine's territorial integrity be included in the updated European security vision and strategy. Therefore, it is important that the NB8 countries, together with Great Britain and a number of other European countries, support the narrative that the path to the restoration of European security lies through the military failure of the Russian Federation on the territory of Ukraine.

Sixth, the security agreements concern the strengthening of Ukraine's defense capabilities, the development of the Ukrainian defense industry and the joint production of weapons, the strengthening of the technological advantages of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on land, in the air and at sea (the provision of aircraft from Denmark, Norway and Sweden, the production of artillery ammunition and other equipment through cooperation with arms manufacturers from Sweden and Finland, a naval coalition – Norway, Denmark).

In the end, it is important for Ukraine to obtain a consolidated position of the NB8 countries on the issue of supporting the Ukrainian peace formula, involving China and the "countries of the South" in the participation in the global peace summit, which is to be held in Switzerland in June.

2. Programs of long-term assistance to Ukraine

In parallel with the security agreements, the NB8 countries are introducing long-term agreements aimed at the economic recovery of Ukraine. Currently, a five-year support program for Ukraine was approved by Norway in 2023 in the amount of 75 billion Norwegian kroner (almost 7 billion euros). In March 2023, Denmark also created the Ukraine Fund, aimed at providing long-term assistance to Ukraine, in the amount of 8.5 billion euros with equal distribution of funds over six years (2023–2028). The Swedish government also presented the strategy of cooperation in the field of reconstruction and reforms in Ukraine for 2023-2027. Similar long-term support programs for Ukraine are being prepared by the governments of Finland and the Baltic states.

For Ukraine, the availability of a package of long-term support programs from the NB8 countries is not only a chance to restore what was destroyed, but also an opportunity to embark on the path of radical modernization of the Ukrainian economy even during the war.

First, Ukraine should not only voice our needs, but also pay more attention to the interests and needs of business representing the Northern and Baltic countries.

Secondly, Ukraine should count not only on state aid programs, but also on the attraction of leading multinational companies (LMCs) from the Northern and Baltic countries to Ukraine. Northern European leading multinational companies (LMCs) are carriers of modern technological solutions, effective business models and have access to capital markets. Instead, Ukraine represents an opportunity for leading Nordic companies to scale their own economic projects. In particular, Ukraine can offer corporations from NB8 countries a partnership in the field of production cooperation, territory for the development of industrial parks and transport and logistics infrastructure along the South-North line.

Thirdly, the Danish government's cooperation agreement with Mykolaiv created a successful case that paves the way for the introduction of a decentralized model of economic recovery in Ukraine. Accordingly, Ukraine's cooperation programs with the NB8 countries should be focused on the development of autonomous electricity generation, the construction of modular boiler houses and diversified water supply systems.

3. Support of European integration and stability of Ukraine

The NB8 countries support the integration of Ukraine into the European Union for the sake of its future membership in the European Union, which was fixed in the priorities for 2024 and subsequent years. It is no coincidence that Sweden, during its presidency of NB8, initiated the creation of a high-level Advisory Group that will provide expert support to the government of Ukraine in the process of joining the European Union.

A key dilemma that Ukraine must resolve in partnership with the Advisory Group is how to accelerate European integration while not jeopardizing Ukraine's national stability during the ongoing war?

From the point of view of security, Ukraine's accession to the European defense partnership and the transformation of the domestic defense industry into a driver of the country's economic and technological recovery are urgent.

From the point of view of stability, the experience of the NB8 countries in the development of national systems of stability and civil defense is important for Ukraine.

Ultimately, experts from the NB8 countries can provide assistance to Ukraine in the matter of forming a national ecosystem of social and management innovations.

How to develop multidimensional cooperation?

The further development of the "northern dimension" of Ukraine's foreign policy is the search for ways to transition to the format of extended and multidimensional cooperation between Ukraine and the regional association of the countries of the Northern Baltic Cooperation (NB8+Ukraine).

First of all, the issue of Ukraine's cooperation with the Nordic and Baltic countries should be included in the official priorities of Ukraine's foreign policy.

The formation of the conceptual and security dimension of the "northern vector" of foreign policy can take place under the patronage of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine (NSDC) and in close cooperation with Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine and the Office of the President of Ukraine.

The presence of political will in this matter creates an opportunity to launch intergovernmental consultations on the preparation and signing of the Strategic Cooperation Agreement between Ukraine and NB8. At the same time, the development of in-depth cooperation involves the opening of an NB8 representative office in Kyiv and the creation of the Ukraine-NB8 Cooperation Council.

The prime minister or vice prime minister for European and Euro-Atlantic integration can coordinate the activities of the interdepartmental cooperation council. In addition, people's deputies of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine can test the idea of developing the Inter-Parliamentary Assembly of Ukraine and the countries of the North-Baltic Cooperation.

Ultimately, the annual High-Level Political Dialogue involving the political leadership of NB8 and Ukraine should become more inclusive. The dialogue platform should be open to representatives of business, scientific institutions and analytical centers, local self-government bodies, representatives of civil society, the cultural sector and creative industries.