Why does Putin need to hold "elections" in the occupied territories of Ukraine?

Politicians in the Kremlin are preparing to hold "elections" in the occupied Ukrainian territories. And for the sake of this goal, they even change the Russian legislation. It is worth mentioning that on the eve of the Ukrainian offensive, the President of the Russian Federation, Vladimir Putin, signed amendments to the Law "On Martial Law".

According to the innovations regarding this law, from now on "elections" can take place both in the entire territory where martial law is introduced, and only in its part. It is important to remind that Putin established this regime in the occupied territory of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions in October of last year. In addition, the law enshrines the right to deport residents of annexed Ukrainian territories, where martial law has been introduced, to areas where such a state does not exist.

A few months before the adoption of these amendments, Putin approved a simplified procedure for renunciation of Ukrainian citizenship. In addition, at the end of April, he approved the procedure for living in the Russian Federation for people born on the territories of the Donetsk People's Republic (DNR) and the Luhansk People's Republic (LPR), as well as parts of the Zaporizhia and Kherson regions captured by the Russians. This document makes it possible to deport those residents of the occupied territories of Ukraine who refuse to acquire Russian citizenship by July 1, 2024. This is how Russia implements its policy of displacing the disloyal population.

Currently, the political field in the Ukrainian lands controlled by the Russian army is completely "sterilized" from unnecessary people protesting against the policy of the Russian Federation. Judging by the Kremlin's plans, the "elections" in the "new Russian territories" should be held on a single voting day, namely September 10, 2023. The Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation has already started work on organizing "elections" in the occupied Ukrainian lands, and the All-Russian Political Party "United Russia" even held "primaries" at the end of May. Among those who took part in them is the former Ukrainian top official Dmytro Tabachnyk, who is trying to enter the Russian government in this way and protect his own business.

It is worth noting that other Russian parliamentary parties are also preparing to participate in the "elections", namely the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (CPRF), Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR), "A Just Russia – For Truth" (SRZP) and a political party "New People".

As Serhiy Danylov, head of projects of the Ukrainian Peacekeeping School in the Kherson region, noted in his comment to ZN.UA, "despite the fact that local officials and teachers were included in the lists for the primaries for the All-Russian Political Party "United Russia", among its participants there are many other people. This is explained by the fact that there were fewer local collaborators than the Russians had expected. Therefore, people who came from Russia, collaborators from Crimea, and Russian military personnel took part in the "primaries".

Political figures in the Kremlin are preparing for "elections" in the occupied territories on the eve of the Ukrainian offensive, which could radically change the situation at the front. It would seem that in this situation it would be much more expedient not to hurry with the "elections" and wait for the further development of events. Valentyna Samar, editor-in-chief of the Center for Investigative Journalism, is sure that Russians do not believe that they are putting themselves in a dead end and creating a hopeless situation for themselves, they raise the stakes.

"Preparations for the "elections" and combat operations are taking place in parallel. A state bureaucratic machine works in the Russian Federation. In addition, if political figures in the Kremlin are tasked with holding "elections", they will be held regardless of how the events at the front develop: "elections" must take place under any circumstances. After all, these are not simple "elections" in the usual sense of the term, they are quite special. There are certain political goals behind this action," Valentyna Samar explained in a comment to ZN.UA.

There are several reasons for the decision of the political representatives of the Kremlin to hold "elections" in the "new territories" under martial law.

First, under such conditions, Moscow will be able to consistently build a vertical of power according to Russian standards in the captured territories, seeking to integrate them into the Russian state and "legitimize" the occupying authorities.

Secondly, holding "elections" is also a way of creating an information picture that demonstrates to the bulk of the population, which leads a rather ascetic lifestyle that Moscow controls the situation in the newly acquired territories, despite the difficult situation at the front and everything is fine. And it is precisely in these territories that everything is going according to plan, and the Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions "forever reunited with the Russian Federation."

Thirdly, political figures in the Kremlin hold "elections" in the occupied territories of Ukraine in order to convince the local Ukrainian population that the governing bodies of the "Russian Federation are established in these new territories for it forever."

Fourth, by forcing Ukrainians to acquire Russian citizenship and participate in the "elections" to the occupation authorities, Moscow also hopes to compromise the local residents by cooperating with the Russian authorities and in this way to form a loyal attitude towards the occupiers. The implementation of this policy by Moscow is facilitated by Kyiv's contradictory statements regarding Ukrainian citizens in the occupied territories who received passports from the aggressor country, as was the case with the mutually exclusive statements of Deputy Prime Minister Iryna Vereshchuk and Ombudsman Dmytro Lubinets.

Fifth, "elections" are opportunities for embezzling funds allocated for the election campaign and building networks with clients. After all, it is not only Deputy Head of the Administration of the President of the Russian Federation Sergey Kiriyenko, who oversees the "new territories", who deploys his own staff on the ground.

Thus, both the head of the occupying power in Crimea, Sergey Aksyonov, and the "head" of Sevastopol, Mikhail Razvozhaye, are trying to play their game in the occupied south of Ukraine: as a result of political games, they control part of the captured Zaporizhzhia region. Kadyrov's supporter, Minister of Agriculture of the Russian Federation Dmitry Patrushev, and former Governor of Krasnodar Krai in the southern European part of Russia Alexander Tkachev have their own interests. According to Valentyna Samar, although the entire territory has been divided and people have already been appointed to the main positions, the struggle for control over enterprises and industries continues: "There are many willing to compete for a better and more profitable place in the leadership."

From the point of view of international law, the upcoming "elections" in the Ukrainian territories occupied by the Russian Federation are illegitimate. However, politicians in the Kremlin believe that they are strengthening their position in the world by integrating these Ukrainian lands into their legal field and forming the vertical of power. And the "elections" will be used by both Russian diplomats and all kinds of Putin's supporters as an argument for promoting the idea of "primitive Russian territories" in the West.

Taking these things into account, Putin himself believes in victory and the ability of his army to hold territory. He lives in his own irrational world, within which he makes various unreasonable decisions. However, the plans of Kremlin politicians to hold "elections" will not be implemented in the event of a successful Ukrainian offensive. On the instructions of Kremlin politicians, Russian TV channels are already discussing the option of withdrawing from the occupied territories: they say, why should we hold and feed territories whose population does not support us? "Do we need territories that do not want to live with us? I'm not sure about that. And for some reason it seems to me that the president doesn't need them either," said Kremlin propagandist Margarita Simonyan.

According to Serhiy Danylov, despite the fact that these regions are recorded in the Constitution of the Russian Federation, Russians will accept the loss of control over them, with the exception of 5% of the most radical Z-patriots. Thus, "Putin and the Kremlin will cynically press the stop button, and the propagandists will pretend that nothing is happening." Thus, the authorities of the Russian Federation will choose a model of behavior that Moscow already tested last fall, when the Ukrainian army liberated Kherson.

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