Overcoming chaos

The first drone raid on Moscow took place on the night of May 3, when drones attacked the Kremlin. Then the drone attack happened on May 30, July 4, July 24, July 30, August 1. As you can see, drones began to fly to Moscow more often, and in a month or two such raids will already become routine.

When the representatives of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine (and other responsible departments) declare an increase in the production of drones, artillery shells and armored vehicles by hundreds of percent, it is gratifying, but is this enough for victory?... After all, if yesterday there were only two attack drones for the raid on the Moscow Kremlin, and today there are as many as ten or twenty of them in just three months. Thus, on the one hand, it is a hundred percent progress, and on the other hand, it is not enough to win the war.

It is obvious that isolated cases of demonstration of our capabilities and psychological pressure on the enemy cannot replace systematic and mass unmanned bombing of military facilities, enterprises of the military-industrial complex, the same notorious "decision-making centers". And a lot of time must pass before these events occur.

The same situation occurs with the growth of Western military-technical assistance. On the one hand, the latest events related to the supply of weapons cannot help but please us, on the other hand, the various decisions of our Western partners show that our own efforts are not enough to win the war. And in some areas – where the West does not fundamentally help us, for example, does not supply long-range drones and missiles – our government itself takes critically few decisive actions for victory.

Ukraine has been at war for the tenth year, and we still do not have a Ministry of Defense Industry of Ukraine. This sad fact clearly shows that the leaders of the country did not understand and still do not understand the importance of systematic work with defense enterprises of all forms of ownership, do not know world history, do not study and do not adopt other people's experience for the good of our country.

Today, the functions of the Ministry of Defense Industry of Ukraine are partially performed by the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine. Also, these important functions are performed by the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, all law enforcement agencies and even the management of the branches of the military. Apart from that, the most important functions of the Ministry of Defense Industry of Ukraine are also fulfilled by the Ministry of Strategic Industries of Ukraine, the Ministry of Digital Transformation, the State Special Communications Service of Ukraine and others...

In addition, it is worth noting that Ukrainian Defense Industry "Ukroboronprom" usually shows itself as a rather fraudulent and incompetent institution and should be destroyed as a completely ineffective and unnatural cross-industry corruption entity, which was once created exclusively to receive money from once profitable Soviet defense enterprises.

It is possible to combine enterprises (for the performance of specific tasks, and not within the same accounting department) – both state and private – only on the basis of industry. Namely, these can be associations of tank and tank repair enterprises, motorists, rocket engineers, electronics (enterprises of the electronic industry), gunsmiths, unmanned aerial vehicles –  manufacturers and operators of unmanned equipment, etc.

In the current situation, the creation of a full-fledged Ministry of Defense Industry of Ukraine, headed by people who know what to do and how to do it, under the leadership of an energetic driver capable of overcoming administrative barriers, would be the best solution for the administration of industry defense associations. However, such a decision is the prerogative and responsibility of the Supreme Commander of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. And such a question goes beyond the scope of this article. Therefore, as a topic close to me, let's consider a separate but important case of a possible organization of the work of the drone association.

In the absence of the Ministry of Defense Industry of Ukraine and the relevant department, the association of enterprises of the defense industry of Ukraine, engaged in the development and manufacture of drones, can lead the branch management (committee/agency) for unmanned technologies.

Such a committee will have to face sabotage and opposition on the part of many small-town "leaders over drones", because now every law enforcement agency, administration and even military branches have the right to order for themselves (in accordance with their specific needs) a range of drones from "their" manufacturers. It is worth noting that tens, if not hundreds, of cabinet "specialists" and so-called "scientists" according to the documents work in this field and take state funds for themselves. All these people are creating chaos in the procurement system, controlled by them.

At the same time, all the main types of drones that are ordered by the military from different departments are similar to each other in terms of functionality, equipment and even appearance, but can differ many times in terms of purchase price and cost of operation.

The very existence of various types of drones leads to embezzlement of budget funds, an increase in financial costs for development and production, an increase in the time for training and retraining of operators. In addition, the existence of different types of drones leads to an increase in costs for the purchase of components and an increase in management costs for all companies that develop and manufacture unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs).

Above all, the extra-agency and supra-agency drone committee should end the chaos and start implementing a line of standardized mass drones suitable for any law enforcement agency. This does not mean that only these mass standard drones that will be the same for everyone should be ordered and produced; this means that the lion's share of the single budget within the framework of consolidated procurement for all law enforcement agencies must be spent on standardized models.

I believe that the most needed are:

1. Universal reconnaissance and attack drone of a light class like "mavik" (needed by all military personnel).
2. A mid-range observer drone like a "matrice". It can also act as a night bomber.
3. Mass FPV copter – kamikaze drone.
4. Repeater drone. It can be built on the basis of a mid-range copter like a "matrice" (see point 2).
5. Medium-range electric reconnaissance aircraft. It can also be made in the "kamikaze plane" version of the battlefield (our "Lancet").
6. Medium-range bomber aircraft.
7. Kamikaze aircraft with a large radius of action.

Here are the seven main, most popular types of drones.

Together with all interested authorities, primarily drone operators and developers, the committee should create and publish (for a narrow circle of people) technical specifications (TS) for such seven (or six, or eight – as the Committee decides) types of drones. In this way, it is not up to the developers to create "any drone because that's how we see it", and then compile and approve technical specifications for their work and conduct tests to confirm the requirements they invented themselves, as they do now. The committee must design, prescribe and impose on manufacturers what the future drone will look like and what technical characteristics it should have, thus standardizing the line of the most popular drones.

Once the technical specifications (TS) for standardized models are developed and implemented, the drone committee should conduct an open and fair competition for the best drone model in each segment among all market participants, public and private. According to the results of competitive tests, the winners must be determined – no more than two models from two competing manufacturers in each nomination.

Drones that win the competition will become standard models. On the basis of a consolidated order from all law enforcement agencies for standard models, the committee will distribute orders to various enterprises ready to make them. At the same time, if the consolidated order is 5,000 units per month, and the development company can only produce 500 units, then the remaining 4,500 units must be produced by other enterprises based on a license agreement. So, instead of 200 models of FPV copters from 200 local manufacturers, we will get one standard model at a fixed price from 200 manufacturers, of the same quality with guaranteed service.

The committee should stimulate the development of the market with the help of preferential loans for the expansion of production and the creation of state-owned enterprises that will produce standard unmanned products. We should not be afraid of Ukrainian production of drones – in the United States of America, state defense arsenals are excellent at manufacturing standard ammunition and even developing tanks. In addition, in Israel, state-owned defense industry (industry – the main difference from "Ukroboronprom") concerns compete effectively with private enterprises.

The committee should consolidate purchases of imported components and materials, create strategic stocks of autopilots, engines, navigation modules, other electronics, and lithium batteries used in standard models of drones. Direct guaranteed purchases, large volumes of such purchases, elimination of customs duties and red tape – all this will reduce the cost of drones and make their production and delivery to the military more predictable.

The committee should also stimulate the manufacture of components in Ukraine, encourage the development of drone components, place orders for components, provide soft loans and grants for the development of the market for drone components.

In addition, it is worth noting that the committee's sphere of activity should include cooperation with developers and manufacturers of drones in friendly countries. Localization of assembly in Ukraine, joint developments, search for foreign partners –  all these things should be the responsibility of the committee.

The committee must accumulate experience in the use of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) on the front, carry out analysis, generate improvements in technical characteristics, change tactics, hold meetings, round tables, seminars for developers, manufacturers and operators, organize range and front tests of new systems.

All of the above does not mean that such a committee will take responsibility and develop the entire drone industry and strictly regulate it. The tasks of the committee are obvious, namely the promotion of the mass production of standard drones and the development of the unmanned industry. Any developer and manufacturer has the right and opportunity to conduct proactive developments, create better devices, and prove their advantages.

Given the sad fact that even an extra-departmental (supra-departmental) committee on drones is quite problematic to create. After all, for this we need the political will of the Supreme Commander of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, because at every level, in every law enforcement agency and even among the selected (nearby) manufacturers, we will receive strong rejection. However, it is possible to take a risk and start with the creation of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) coordination committee as a pilot project within the Ministry of Digital Transformation (for example), based on the developed expertise of the "Army of Drones".

The tasks of the coordination committee (groups, agencies) will be similar to the tasks of the supra-departmental committee, except that the coordination committee, as a pilot project within the "Drone Army", will not be able to directly impose the state defense policy on all power structures, namely users of drones. But such a coordinating body will be able to do something to standardize and encourage the mass production of drones.

Namely:

1. To hold conferences and meetings with developers, manufacturers and operators of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) to determine the required characteristics of standardized types of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). To create an effective unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) community, mechanisms that really work, direct and feedback communication, which will contribute to understanding what types of drones and in what quantities are needed in the military.
2. To engage in the standardization of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), promote the production of typical products, and direct efforts to increase the volume of production of typical unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). For this, it is necessary to determine the main types of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) that are most in demand by all power structures. It will also be important to register the technical specifications (TS), hold contests and choose their winners. Give the winners preferences. Implement the mechanism of licensed production of the best models at other enterprises. Under such conditions, no one will be at a loss.
3. To implement the mechanisms of licensed production of standard models. It is necessary to draw up a license agreement, calculate economic incentives for the development company and manufacturing companies. In addition, it is important to develop procedures for quality control, modernization of licensed products at manufacturing enterprises, etc.
4. To help with the expansion of production. Develop and implement a mechanism of grant and credit support for manufacturers. Involve financial institutions (Ukrainian and foreign), technological partners – foreign developers/manufacturers of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) and individual components in the development and production of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). It is also quite important to create joint enterprises, in particular in the territory of Western countries.
5. To promote research and development works. To issue the technical specifications (TS), with guaranteed payment for the performance of works for the development of detonators, control systems, communication systems, engines, etc. To credit the launch of new productions of components for drones. In addition, it is necessary to promote the creation of the industry of development and production of components for unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) in Ukraine.
6. Also, the coordinating body will be able to create a mechanism for consolidated purchases of foreign components and materials for unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), necessary for the production of typical models. For example, it is planned to produce 10,000 unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) of seven main types in six months. Production will be located at 50 enterprises. Materials and components for all enterprises that fulfill orders must be purchased centrally through two or three purchasing operators. Financing of the purchase should be carried out through commercial financial structures under state guarantees.
7. To create an algorithm/mechanism for guaranteed purchases of typical unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) at fixed prices (taking into account inflation). The committee on behalf of the state (or another operator on its behalf) must guarantee the purchase of 10 thousand unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) of seven (for example) main types from 50 manufacturers (of which 43 are licensed production) at a fixed price with a fixed profit and mandatory quality control.
8. On the basis of military, volunteer and private, as well as state training centers, create a single "school" for mass training of personnel in working with seven basic/typical unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). Promote training of trainers, creation of manuals, programs and creation of centers with typical drones necessary for training.
9. To create an effective "unified" service system for typical unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) with the involvement of the capabilities of manufacturing companies (it is necessary to develop economic incentives), other private companies capable of providing service support, and service structures in the military.
10. To standardize ammunition, detonators and increase production of these products for seven (or as many as there will be) major types of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs).

The market economy, which many of our leaders hope for, cannot solve the issue of mobilizing all the forces of the nation in an unprecedented war for independence. Overcoming chaos is an inevitable stage on the way to our victory.

Read this article in Ukrainian and russian.