Later it will be more difficult. What should Ukraine do with the protests of Polish farmers

A little more time will pass and the children here will be scared by the "Polish farmer", but Polish farmers are not unique, they are just a voice in the chorus. Moreover, this choir is not singing for us. But we applied for participation and we have to study our party, because our voice is loud, and many people don't like it already.

Farmers' protests are a pan-European problem

In France, farmers' demonstrations lasted about two weeks in January, including blocking roads and dumping manure under the doors of government buildings. At the same time, there was a week of farmers' protests in Germany: a demonstration at the Brandenburg Gate, blocking roads with tires and logs, dumping manure under government buildings, blocking the entrance to the port in Bremerhaven.

In Belgium, a thousand tractors blocked key road crossings on the border with the Netherlands, and a group of particularly defiant people drove into Brussels on February 1, burning hay bales and pelting police with eggs and firecrackers. In the neighboring Netherlands, protests have not subsided since the beginning of the year, and the actions of the neighbors are supported in every way.

In Spain, on the same day, farmers blocked not only highways, but also ports and logistics centers. Meanwhile, their Portuguese counterparts have been blocking the roads to Spain since early February.

A week ago, a tractor convoy of Italian farmers drove into the ancient Circus Maximus stadium, and before that they blocked traffic in Rome for weeks.

In Athens, two hundred tractors blocked Syntagma Square in front of the Greek Parliament on February 20. A few days ago, hundreds of tractors drove through Prague, blocking traffic near the Czech Ministry of Agriculture. Simultaneously with the Czechs, Slovak and Hungarian farmers also protested.

The common claim in all of them is the so-called Green Deal (The European Green Deal). It is a set of initiatives put forward by the European Commission with the aim of making Europe climate neutral by 2050.

For agriculture, this topic is sensitive. Here are the goals until 2030:

• a quarter of the agriculture of the European Union should become "organic" (whatever that means);
• the use of pesticides should be reduced by – 50%;
• use of fertilizers – by 20%;
• use of antimicrobial drugs in agriculture and aquaculture – by 50%;
• food waste during production will also need to be reduced by – 50%.

This is not an exhaustive list, but it is clear what provoked the desire to throw a bucket of manure under someone's door.

Other demands vary from country to country: some want fuel subsidies, some want a reduction in bureaucracy, some want an increase in purchase prices, and some want government assistance. Ukraine is mentioned in these demands only by its neighbors: Poland, Slovakia and Hungary.

Moreover, their claims against us change from blockade to blockade and in the end simply embody dissatisfaction with the appearance of yet another competitor in the domestic market. Currently, the official legend is as follows: we should reduce the use of pesticides, fertilizers, and antimicrobials by 2030, but they do not. At the same time, they gained unhindered access to our markets and are also dumping.

Of course, we did not get this access because we were so lucky and we are doing very well. In addition, it will last until June 2025, but it is difficult to explain to a Polish farmer. There is no need to do this.

What is really needed is to realize that "farmer protests" are a powerful political tool that is used regularly and very effectively in Europe, and if we are already paving the way there, it is worth learning how to manage it.

We should stop making these clumsy calls for a boycott of Polish goods in the ATB chain of stores and harassing our refugees in Warsaw, who "still have not come out to protest." We have 40% of the world's chernozem soils, we still, with almost no use of fertilizers and with a loss of 25% of cultivated areas, wreak havoc on the entire European market, and we received the honorable title of "granary" at a time when our yield was twice as low. If we react too emotionally every time we are dissatisfied, then boycotts and demonstrations will never end. But if we want to be in the Premier League, we have to play like professionals.

It is profitable to look for someone who benefits

"The scale of strikes at the border does not scare, but shows the scale of the problems," said Polish Minister of Economic Development and Technology Krzysztof Hetman, himself not realizing how right he is, even when he is wrong. 

If you look at the numbers, there is no scale of the problem for a long time, and the dynamics should inspire the neighboring countries, not infuriate them. If we look at the political background, the scale is obvious, and yes, the dynamics do not promise anything good.

It is a fact that the problems with the occurrence of a large amount of Ukrainian grain have decreased several times (see the table). Yes, the volume of supplies is far from the level of 2021, that is, from the zero level that was in the past. However, thanks to the unblocked sea, now they are not at all comparable to the volumes of 2022, when Polish routes became the main for Ukraine in the sale of grain (with all the market problems and speculations we have already described).

But this does not stop protest sentiments, because in this case we are not so much the cause as the object of blackmail in large tenders for the points of the "Green Agreement". We have to draw conclusions.

On the one hand, it is time to realize that farmers' associations in the European Union are an eternal trump card in the hands of European politicians, which will never be defeated. To understand the protest force: To satisfy the farmers, the French government has excluded France's consent to a free trade agreement between the European Council and the Southern Common Market (Mercosur), the strongest free trade area in South America. This is a level to be reckoned with.

On the other hand, the "green transition" will not pass us by, accordingly, in a few years, a pile of manure may well end up somewhere in the middle of Hrushevsky Street. Therefore, it is already necessary to talk about further cooperation and look for allies in the European markets.

In the domestic market, mechanisms for determining quality, analyzing the impact on the environment, and controlling the use of fertilizers, pesticides, antimicrobials, etc., should be revived (although it is better to say, created). And already at the state level, it is guaranteed that all this will definitely appear and work in our country soon. A clear signal that we are already in the process is a good argument. This practice with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) always works.

Yes, we add regulations and dissolve bureaucracy. But we will also create some jobs, reassure our partners, and increase the cost of our products. Moreover, we need to carry out these reforms in the process of integration into the European Union in any case, and in the real sector there is already someone who can share this sacred knowledge with the government. Ask at least the agricultural company of Ukraine "Nibulon" for advice.

In foreign markets, primarily in the market of the European Union, it is necessary to look for allies interested in cooperation with us, and not in blocked trade. There are many of them. Yes, most likely, they will not go to set fire to hay near the building of the representative authority, but they can become our support, including political support, thanks to their role in the European Union market. These potential interested parties are well-known, they made good money last year from exports to Ukraine, from trading, and as a logistics hub. It is beneficial for them to continue trading with us in the current format, and it is beneficial for us to strengthen cooperation with them. And mostly we are talking about Polish companies.

The income of Polish companies or at least those registered on the territory of Poland from exports to Ukraine by road transport for nine months of 2023 is 77% higher than for the same period of 2021. If we talk purely about internal benefits, that is, about the export of Polish-made goods, then they are half of this export.

Poland has turned into a logistics hub in two years. The figure shows how, against the background of a rather modest increase in the import of precisely Polish goods into Ukraine, "related services" are growing many times more actively, namely the import of other countries through Poland, road transport and trading. ZN.UA already wrote that after the start of the war, the volumes of motor vehicle deliveries from Poland to Ukraine increased tenfold. Thanks for your help, but it's hard not to notice that Polish companies are making good money helping us. We are talking about manufacturers, suppliers, carriers, and traders. For example, the income of Polish traders has almost doubled since 2021 – from $5.5 billion at the end of 2021 to $9.4 billion by the end of 2023.

Foreign trade is always about negotiations, strategic alliances and situational partnerships, about strong arguments and interesting proposals, about a healthy mix of protectionism and openness, but the most important thing is to be ahead of the game. We don't play like that yet, but we have to learn, because it will only get more difficult in the future. 

Read this article in Ukrainian and russian.