A Peace Plan for Ukraine "Hangs in the Air." What Happened at the G20 Summit?

Nobody knows what to do with wars

The G20 summit in Rio de Janeiro ended more or less positively, as the consensus recorded in the declaration on a number of important issues was reached. Brazil, which hosted the summit, managed to do this thanks to a step that caused noticeable irritation among Western countries. Brazil, probably because of China's idea, froze the discussion of peace plans regarding the Russian-Ukrainian and Middle Eastern wars. That is, the freezing of the war for the time being has reduced to the freezing of conversations about their freezing.

The complex combination of expectations of a peace plan from Donald Trump and missiles from Joe Biden, first used by Ukraine against an arsenal of ammunition on Russian territory, remained behind the scenes of the decisions of the G20 summit. The updated nuclear doctrine of the Russian Federation, signed by Russian President Putin, who was not at the summit, since the International Criminal Court's arrest warrant is still in force, also remained behind the scenes.

A sluggish consensus

The G20 has advanced in the implementation of a number of important initiatives for the world. The summit declaration reports on the creation of the Global Alliance against Hunger and Poverty at the initiative of Brazil. It is worth noting that this decision was supported by more than 80 countries and influential humanitarian organizations. The initiative was launched on Copacabana Beach in Rio de Janeiro with empty plates symbolizing the millions of people in the world who suffer from hunger. The global alliance will promote various mechanisms to combat hunger, such as cash transfers, school feeding programs and access to microcredit.

Also included in the declaration is a collective commitment initiated by Brazil to work on the introduction of a 2% tax on the wealth of the world's very rich people. The chances seemed minimal due to the resistance of Argentine President Javier Miley, who, as a right-winger, considers such and similar initiatives to be an attack on socialism. In this regard, in the absence of an in-depth discussion of the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, the shadow of Donald Trump was most visible at the summit. According to popular belief, Javier Miley represented at the summit a system of economic views associated with Donald Trump.

On the issue of combating climate change, Brazil has made efforts to give concrete content to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP29). The G20 Declaration renewed the commitment to achieve net zero emissions by mid-century and to significantly, without specific figures, increase the share of renewable energy and increase global energy efficiency by 2030. In addition, the G20’s intention to reduce land degradation by 50% by 2040 was confirmed. To specify financial commitments related to combating climate change, the summit launched the Global Working Group.

There was no step forward on the green transition, just as there was none at the recent COP29 summit in Azerbaijan. The fight against climate change is the second issue, after taxes on the wealth of the world's very rich people, where the shadow of Donald Trump with his “bore, baby, bore” (a popular American formula for unlimited oil production) influenced decisions.

In the declaration, the G20 reaffirmed its commitment to the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. Only a small part of the Sustainable Development Goals is considered to be being implemented properly. Despite the reservations of the Argentine leader, the emphasis was placed on gender equality. In this issue, he also seemed to be a representative of Donald Trump’s ideas.

Wars without guilty parties

The overdue issue of reform of the United Nations and the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) was mentioned as a prospect, seemingly urgent but uncertain. The declaration contains a commitment by the G20 to modify the United Nations Security Council “through a transformative reform that aligns it with the realities and demands of the 21st century, making it more representative, inclusive, effective, efficient, democratic and accountable, and more transparent to the entire community of the United Nations.” However, there is no hint of how or when this process might begin. Intentions to reform the World Trade Organization (WTO) are progressing just as slowly. According to the declaration, the World Trade Organization is important for “ensuring prosperity and creating a favorable environment for trade and investment for all.” There is no solution to how such inclusiveness can be achieved. Currently, an unspecified timeframe is planned to improve the system for resolving trade disputes.

The declaration states that without peace, sustainable development and prosperity are impossible and that the G20 itself exists to resolve financial and economic crises. Currently, as the text states, the world is facing a “multifaceted crisis, where political and geopolitical tensions threaten the ability to overcome challenges such as stimulating growth, reducing poverty and combating climate change.”

Therefore, the summit could not completely ignore the topic of wars. The declaration mentioned the humanitarian crisis in the Gaza Strip and the escalation in Lebanon. It also called for a ceasefire and access to humanitarian aid. The G20, while avoiding direct criticism of Israel, reaffirmed its collective commitment to a two-state solution to the Middle East problems for Israel and Palestine.

Regarding the Russo-Ukrainian war, the Rio de Janeiro summit declaration referred to humanitarian suffering without mentioning the Russian Federation as the cause. The prescription for a solution was, as always in international declarations, correct, but unaddressed and not backed up by action. The declaration stated that all states should refrain from the threat or use of force for territorial gains contrary to the territorial integrity, sovereignty or political independence of any state.

Artificial Intelligence and Nuclear Weapons

The summit declaration highlighted the rapid development of artificial intelligence (AI), taking into account its potential for the global digital economy. At the same time, the development and implementation of artificial intelligence must be accompanied by the protection of human rights, transparency, accountability, regulation, ethics, privacy and data management. For now, this means that each country decides for itself how to implement these wishes and to what extent they limit the development of artificial intelligence.

Separately from the summit declaration, the leaders of the United States of America and China, Joe Biden and Xi Jinping, confirmed that decisions regarding the use of nuclear weapons should remain under human control, and not be transferred to AI systems. This, in fact, is all that can be considered an indirect response of the summit to the update of the Russian nuclear doctrine, which expands the number of pretexts for nuclear war. The United States of America and China are perhaps more concerned about the extent to which Russian propaganda, which increasingly influences Russian nuclear doctrine, exists separately from deepfakes generated by artificial intelligence.

The peace plans have stalled

The summit was the stage for Joe Biden's farewell to world politics. In his speeches, he focused mainly on global security and conflict resolution, primarily the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East. He once again confirmed the firm support of the United States of America for the sovereignty of Ukraine. This time, his words carried more weight against the backdrop of various sources confirming, and explosions at one of the Russian arsenals, that Ukraine had been allowed to use American long-range missiles. But Joe Biden himself did not mention this permission publicly, and there was no direct discussion about it.

The highest representative of the Russian Federation at the summit, Sergei Lawrow, reminded journalists several times that, according to the updated nuclear doctrine, the Russian Federation could consider strikes by Ukraine against it with American weapons as a pretext for a nuclear strike. A nuclear strike on Ukraine was probably indirectly meant, but Lavrov’s statements did not specify a specific addressee. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who was presumably traveling to the summit with the announced Turkish peace plan, limited himself to stating that the Russian Federation would react negatively to Ukrainian strikes with American weapons. He did not mention his peace plan. China stated at the summit that it was not supplying weapons for the Russian-Ukrainian war, trying to appear more peaceful than the United States of America. At the same time, President Xi Jinping did not mention the troops of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) and weapons in the Russian Federation, which could hardly be there without Beijing's consent. Xi Jinping did not oppose the American decision to remove unnecessary bans on the use of weapons by Ukraine and the optimism of Western allies, except, perhaps, the German Chancellor. Regarding talks about a peace plan in China, it seems that it was decided to wait until Donald Trump's policies become clear once he takes office as President of the United States of America. So far, the new American policy has manifested itself only in the opposition of Trump’s political ally Javier Miley to certain aspects of progressive taxation, the pace of achieving environmental goals, and issues of gender equality. So, China has focused on building bilateral relations with leading countries, for which the new policy of the United States of America next year is also uncertain. Xi Jinping met with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum. Given the uncertainty of the peace initiatives, the Brazilian president closed the discussions on the first day, as soon as the minimum consensus that allowed for the adoption of a joint declaration was formed. The policy of the world’s leading countries, as before, depends on the policy of the United States of America. Now the addiction is manifested in avoiding the implementation of the initiative until Donald Trump’s willingness to change the world begins to be realized in action. Judging by the decisions of the G20 summit in Brazil, even China is waiting for this to happen, not to mention smaller countries.

Thus, in such a collective expectation of a miracle from Donald Trump, various peace plans are stuck in the air. And again, as always, the main factor in change remains the situation on the fronts of the Russian-Ukrainian war.

 

Read this article in Ukrainian and russian.