How to Win in 2023: Creating an OODA Loop for Ukraine

Colonel John Boyd has created world-famous doctrine – the OODA loop, which is one of the basic management theories of the US Army. Boyd proved that in a great war the cause of defeat or victory is neither a set of material or moral factors per se, nor the total number of men, weapons, resources, psychological state, or social conditions. First of all, this is the quality of management, which makes it possible to use one’s advantages and reduce the significance of the enemy’s advantages, that is, to act faster and more competently than the enemy.

The OODA Loop determines that the management cycle in war is divided into the following four components:

— observation (organization of data collection, post-operative analysis after previous actions);

— orientation (analyzing data and creating situational awareness of the state and capabilities of our side and the enemy side);

— decision (planning and development of action options, choosing a solution that provides a qualitative advantage and optimal use of resources);

— action (implementation of the decision).

The OODA Loop is a continuous cycle of planning strategic and tactical steps. The military-political leadership of each country has its own decision-making cycle and procedure.

Let’s look at the situation in our management system without political and moral evaluations, only as a process of improving management within the framework of the current structure of power, which we all need to improve. We proceed from the fact that we need a stable government, it should change only at elections, and only those who have already been appointed by the president and whom he trusts should be in charge.

See below the organizational problems that weaken the state and personally the Supreme Commander-in-Chief.

• In the conditions of war, hundreds of different management bodies are manually locked in a few offices in the office of the Supreme Commander-in-Chief. Therefore, instead of preemptive actions, the authorities are forced to react late, already after the initiative is intercepted by the enemy. For example, you can see the consequences of being late with the strategic deployment and detonation of bridges, how in the 11th month of the war elementary issues of the purchase of drones and other equipment have not been resolved, how there is no basic training for the mobilized, who are sent to the front, and the problems with purchasing shells, etc.
• We have had centralization of power, but decentralization of responsibility for the result. Very often, the process of clarifying the situation is reduced to identifying the culprits, without the use of qualitative observation and orientation. Because of this, mistakes are repeated again and again, and honest people who report the true situation are often appointed as responsible.
• To dictate the initiative means to be ahead of the curve. Due to the lack of independent institutions, there is no time and opportunity to create a strategy, doctrine of combat operations, defense planning for the short and long term.
• Taking care of people does not mean hiding them; protecting them means preparing and managing them with quality. We have big issues with the most effective involvement and mobilization of people according to their professional and moral abilities, problems with using unique competencies and knowledge.

Therefore, my proposals to the Supreme Commander-in-Chief are aimed exclusively at increasing the efficiency of our government and his personal power in the state; only this will give us the opportunity to create in 2023 institutions capable of accelerating the OOAD loop.

• Headquarters of the Supreme Commander-in-Chief. It must perform the function of coordination and control among independent blocks of power, responsible for creating the advantage and effectiveness of the state in all elements of the loop. For this, the president should reduce the number of management objects and delegate independent powers to a certain circle of managers whom he trusts as much as possible. To ensure efficiency of the Boyd cycle, it is necessary to create an organization with distributed functions, for the hyperconcentration of powers at Bankova Street (the street in government quarter in Kyiv where presidential office is located) does not allow quick reaction and action.
• The War.

— To end the competition in military leadership that currently plagues the army. It is necessary to guarantee the retention of positions for all key managers, but to clearly delineate their responsibilities and powers.

— To stop the unhealthy trend of the “war of reprimands and official investigations,” which has reached absurd proportions and paralyzes the necessary coordination and business cooperation.

— To stop punishing commanders for truthful reporting of plight, and instead work together to find systemic solutions.

— To immediately introduce standards for post-operational analysis of combat operations — “after action review.”

— To streamline the organization of work in the Ministry of Defense because it is impossible to manage a structure in which there are 8 deputy ministers instead of the full-time staff five, plus freelance curators-advisors, plus irresponsible acting ministers in key departments instead of full-time staff managers, so instead of leadership in the formation of defense policy, the ministry engages in fragmented intervention.

— To create a military cabinet in the government, which should concentrate the management of resources and get the authority to solve all the issues that are necessary for the front, namely relating to drones, projectiles, transport, logistics – all this should be integrated, and one responsible person should be identified. Vice Prime Minister Oleksandr Kubrakov could very well become such a responsible and authoritative leader.

— Decree of President Zelenskyy No. 59 On the Main Indicators of the State Defense Order for 2020 and 2021, 2022, which, in fact, provided for the reform of the defense and industrial sector, has not been implemented in all areas. It is necessary to consider the experience of this failure after many loud promises and come up with a realistic program of reforms that must be implemented.

— A consistent and logical defense policy must be implemented comprising prioritizing the purchase and production of weapons. 100% advance payment of weapons purchases, long-term contracts, creation of joint ventures in NATO countries for the production of ammunition and drones.

— Service centers and a service policy for the hundreds of types of equipment that are randomly imported and put into service must be created. Employees of this network must be mobilized without leaving their workplaces.

The Security Service of Ukraine must coordinate the work of all departments in the fight against Russian influence, for this it must receive the authority to coordinate the actions of the Ministry of Internal Affairs, the State Bureau of Investigation, the Economic Security Bureau of Ukraine, the Prosecutor General’s Office of Ukraine, the National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine, and financial intelligence. It is surprising why incumbent acting head of the Security Service of Ukraine, Vasyl Malyuk, who showed his will to fight against the pro-Russian agency in the Security Service, which Ivan Bakanov brought to the highest positions, still cannot get the status of a full-fledged head of the Security Service. And this is after a successful operation of the Security Service on the Crimean Bridge. This will not harm Tatarov’s authority, it only concerns the war, not smuggling, let everyone fend for themselves there.

Almost 30 countries lack appointed ambassadors, including some strategically important NATO countries and China. How can this be during the war when Russians are working there at the highest level? It is desirable that either professional diplomats or military personnel are appointed in the countries that supply us with weapons. I am appealing to Minister of Foreign Affairs, Dmytro Kuleba, to appoint all girlfriends of Chernivtsi smugglers and bankers, whom he was assigned to employ, as ambassadors to those resort countries where the arms issues are not resolved.

After the scandalous dismissal of Russian agent Ruslan Demchenko at the beginning of the war from the position of the head of the intelligence committee accountable to the president, no one is holding this position at all. However, we need the coordination of all intelligence structures, namely the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Defense Intelligence of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, Ministry of Internal Affairs, Security Service of Ukraine, State Border Guard Service of Ukraine, and Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine, as well as a huge amount of incoming information from our allies. This is a large scope of work, and the head of the said committee must be appointed. Let me remind you that before Demchenko’s appointment, the intelligence was coordinated by Secretary of the National Security and Defence Council Oleksii Danilov. It would be logical if the National Security and Defense Council received proper powers again and began to carry out this large-scale painstaking and non-political work. No, this is not an attempt to intercept Yermak’s information flows, let him visit reports sessions, but enable someone do coordination and analytical work in intelligence.

• Defense planning.

We need to understand what kind of army we are building, what training, management, and armament systems will be needed tomorrow and will be needed in three years. To be in time in the war, you have to be ahead. The OOAD loop is needed to prepare quality solutions, and solutions are based precisely on planning. In particular, there is no planning, so we have self-organization and chaos in logistics, procurement, and any distribution of resources. We need short-term and long-term defense planning.

— The key criterion for assessing the quality of the troops is combat capability, the creation of motivated combat teams and the organization of people should include them in the Boyd cycle as full-fledged participants at their echelons.

— For this, it is necessary to create standards of combat training, which are obligatory when newly mobilized are sent to the frontline, to adopt standards of basic training, which are mandatory for everyone.

— To organize large-scale training of commanders – sergeants and officers exclusively from among military personnel who have demonstrated leadership qualities in battle, to stop the practice of appointing people without experience and without leadership to the positions of commanders, only thanks to entries in the military ticket.

— To improve the quality of training, create training units in each combat brigade, whose task is to be responsible for the quality of training of soldiers and sergeants of the military unit, to train people with the participation of combat leaders without breaking away from engagement, on the second and third lines of the front.

— Auto mechanics, electricians, signalmen, builders, doctors, logisticians, lawyers, financiers are scarce and important professions that must be used as intended to increase combat capability. Service station masters, for example, generally have to mobilize and serve in the rear, without breaking away from production, to be fixed in their positions in order to continue systematically working in the interests of the troops at equipped workplaces.

— To create military justice, courts, police, and investigation in order to take from the commanders of units the burden of personally solving the issues of offenders and conduct independent actions at the front.

— To create the institute of the commissioner for the rights of military personnel to receive quality feedback and help protect the rights of military personnel.

— With a view to evaluating the leadership qualities and promotion of senior commanders, to analyze the results of combat operations, the losses of the enemy and our troops, the fighting capacity and motivation of subordinate troops, surveys of units of moral and psychological support among military personnel.

The OODA loop exists in every system. In a system that strives for victory, this loop improves and oppresses the enemy, in a system for which victory is not the main motivation, the loop suffocates its own people. I entertain the hope that the authorities will realize what price we pay every hour for victory and for the future and will begin to improve themselves according to NATO standards and best military management practices.