If now, in the summer, there is no electricity for seven to ten hours, what can we expect in the winter, when energy consumption will increase even more? How are Ukrainians experiencing the current energy crisis and what are they preparing for? Do they understand the scale of the challenges faced by the domestic energy system? How do Ukrainians feel in such difficult conditions? And most importantly, is the energy terror of the Russian Federation achieving its goal, or are Ukrainians really going to leave the Motherland?
Looking for answers to these questions, ZN.UA conducted a survey with the help of the Razumkov Center. Well, we are definitely more resilient than the Russian Federation expects, and we are quite realistic in our assessment of what is happening.
When answering the question "How long do you think systematic power outages will last?", only 11.8% of respondents chose the option "Several months" (see Fig. 1). The majority is to one degree or another less optimistic in their expectations: 12.4% chose the answer "More than three years", 25.5% — "Two to three years", 28% — "Within a year". That is, 66% of respondents are fully aware of the scale of the destruction of the energy infrastructure, and the complexity and duration of the process of its restoration in the conditions of war.
However, Yulia Tymoshenko has a completely different point of view on this issue. She is confident that the entire power system can be repaired in two weeks by moving the equipment from "inoperative units to working units", whatever that means.
Thanks to this delusion, we have a high percentage of those who could not decide on an answer option (22.4%). Of course, on the one hand, this may indicate the emotional exhaustion of people, which generally complicates any assessments of the future. On the other hand, this "uncertainty" may be the result of lack of awareness or the influence of various myths surrounding power outages that have nothing to do with reality. In addition, such statements are clearly hostile narratives, but they offer citizens simple, even if treasonous, explanations for power cuts. By the way, ZN.UA debunked the most common of these myths - from "electricity is enough, they just justify raising the tariff" to "they export to Europe when they don't have enough" — in a separate article.
Nevertheless, most Ukrainians demonstrate a quite realistic awareness of the scale of problems in the energy sector.
Since March 22, 2024, the Russians have already carried out eight massive missile and drone strikes on electricity generation facilities, during which all large thermal and hydroelectric power plants of Ukraine were damaged. According to PrJSC "National Energy Company "Ukrenergo", as a result, Ukraine lost more than 9 GW of generating capacity. To understand the scale, this volume of power is consumed in the summer by the Netherlands or Slovakia or all the Baltic countries together.
Since the targets of the Russian Federation this year were not networks, but large generation facilities, their restoration is definitely not a matter of two weeks. These are large-scale, large and powerful objects that cannot be completely restored even in a few months. In response to ZN.UA's request, representatives of PrJSC "National Energy Company "Ukrenergo" assured that repairs are ongoing 24 hours a day, and one of the key tasks for energy workers now is to repair as many damaged generation facilities as possible that can be restored before the start of the heating season.
Despite the fact that most people are aware that electricity problems cannot be solved quickly, there are few people willing to leave the country (see Fig. 2). Only 6.4% of respondents indicated that they plan to leave the country, answering the question "Do you plan to leave Ukraine to spend the winter in another place" if the Ukrainian energy system does not have time to recover before the heating season?
Despite the fact that most people are aware that electricity problems cannot be solved quickly, there are few people willing to leave the country (see Fig. 2). Only 6.4% of respondents indicated that they plan to leave the country, answering the question "Do you plan to leave Ukraine to spend the winter in another place" if the Ukrainian energy system does not have time to recover before the heating season?
Instead, 85.2% answered that they do not plan to move to other countries due to systematic power outages. Such a balance of answers, on the one hand, may indicate adaptation to difficult conditions, confidence in the ability to survive the winter, and a desire to support the country in a difficult time for it. On the other hand, it can also indicate a lack of money or other obstacles for citizens to leave or mean the same mistrust of information about significant problems with energy supply in winter. Let's not forget that a fifth of the respondents could not decide on predictions regarding the expected duration of energy problems.
Be that as it may, the achievement of the main goals of energy terror, namely the depopulation of large Ukrainian cities and the migration crisis in the European Union, still seems unrealistic.
How do Ukrainians cope without electricity and what do they miss the most during long-term power outages? When answering the question "What causes you the most discomfort in the absence of electricity?", respondents could choose three answers at once (see Fig. 3). The most popular options were: "Lack of light" — 71% and "Lack of communication and Internet" — 57%.
Well, it makes perfect sense, because they're both about basic security needs. Both in the purely physical dimension, that is, the absence of a working traffic light, lighting in the entrance, access to information, and in the psychological dimension, namely, the impossibility of contact with loved ones, loneliness in a dark house, "imprisonment" in one's own thoughts.
On the other hand, the adaptation of society is evidenced by the relatively low indicators of such answer options as "Lack of water" — 23%, "Non-working elevators" — 15.6, " Inability to use an electric stove" — 12.7, " Inability to use the sewage system" — 6.2 %.
A separate remark deserves the answer option "No television", which was chosen by 22% of respondents. Despite the fact that television loses its influence on the audience every year, in difficult times its importance, as we can see, is comparable to water. Unfortunately, the basic audience watching television and citizens who do not have access to "mains inverters", "EcoFlow brand" that offers portable charging stations, solar panels, microinverters and other products for electricity or "internet during blackouts" — they are usually the same people. These people are lonely and suffer from stress. For them, quarrels with the "television marathon" are perhaps the only communication during the day, and even that is gone.
In fact, companies are trying to solve this problem, but there are currently no easy solutions. Of course, there are batteries at the base stations, but the root of the problem is the irregularity of power outages. According to information from the national mobile communications operator "Kyivstar", the batteries of their base stations are designed for four hours of operation without electricity, then they need four hours of access to electricity for a full charge. If this cycle is not maintained, the batteries do not have time to charge, so their battery life is reduced. Uninterruptible power supplies (UPS) for access points in apartment buildings require up to eight hours to fully charge after four hours of operation without power. After a year and a half of operation, uninterruptible power supplies (UPS) completely fail, they must be replaced with new ones. Of course, the company also has stationary generators, but just compare: 115 thousand batteries, 2.3 thousand generators. To buy the rest is not fast and not cheap both from the point of view of the actual purchase and in terms of service. So, unfortunately, loneliness in silence has become a reality for many of us. Remember this the next time your neighbor wants to tell you how "it used to be better."
The option "Non-working air conditioners", which received 4.5% of responses, needs a separate warning. Our survey was conducted at the end of June this year, before the extreme heat of July. So it is quite likely that this answer option would not be such an outsider at the moment, despite the systematic requests of energy experts not to turn on air conditioners, saving kilowatts of electricity.
With regard to the strategy of the future restoration of the energy system, Ukrainians also demonstrate good awareness (see Fig. 4). When answering the question "In your opinion, the government should direct the funds allocated for the restoration of the power system to...", 45.5% of citizens chose the option "Construction of an extensive network of mini-power plants to power certain territories or objects", and 36% of Ukrainians chose the option "Reconstruction of several large destroyed Thermal Power Plants (TPPs)." It is significant that in such a rather specific question, the number of those who could not decide on the answer is only 12.6% of the respondents (5.8% of Ukrainians chose the "Other" option).
Obviously, society is aware of the fact that large power plants are vulnerable to Russian missiles, as well as an understanding of the irreplaceability of large plants for industry and large cities.
Representatives of PrJSC "National Energy Company "Ukrenergo", responding to ZN.UA's request, confirm Ukraine's intentions to develop distributed electricity in the state, but only the terms announced by the company are unlikely to please you.
The company assesses the readiness of investors "in the near term to build a total of up to 1 GW of new small power plants, up to 10 MW each, in a variety of designs — gas turbine or gas piston maneuverable power plants, energy storage systems, as well as solar and wind generation facilities."
At "minus" 9 GW, the promise of "plus" 1 GW looks modest.
According to the information of PrJSC "National Energy Company "Ukrenergo", these power plants will be distributed around large cities and industrial regions. In this way, the resistance of the power system to attacks by the Russian Federation will increase, because it will be more difficult to hit such objects with a missile than a large thermal or hydroelectric plant. At the same time, the flexibility of the Ukrainian energy system will increase, i.e. its ability to cover peak loads during the day due to new maneuverable gas generation and energy storage systems.
According to the calculations of PrJSC "National Energy Company "Ukrenergo", within 2-3 years, the Ukrainian energy system will need a total of 3.5-4 GW of such generation, the construction of which requires up to 6 billion dollars of investments in total.
In addition, opportunities for increasing the volume of electricity imports from the European Union are also being considered and sought. Currently, the technical capacity of interstate interconnectors to import electricity from neighboring European countries to Ukraine is 1,700 MW per hour. The main obstacle to increasing this figure, as noted in NEC Ukrenergo, are such "bottlenecks" in the European network. The partners of PrJSC "National Energy Company "Ukrenergo" in ENTSO-E are currently conducting relevant calculations and modeling of how much it is possible to increase the technical capacity to import electricity to Ukraine from the countries of the European Union, while guaranteeing safe modes of operation for the European and Ukrainian energy systems.
However, it is not worth waiting for the stunning results of these calculations, because it is unlikely that Ukraine will be able to increase imports by more than 500 MW without building new interconnectors. Their construction is also planned, but again, it will take years, not months.
Apparently, the idea of using Turkish-made energy vessels has been postponed again. Let us remind you that we are talking about floating generating capacities (about 500MW per ship), which in theory enter the port, generate electricity and transmit it to the country's power system. Political leaders on Bankova Street liked this idea, like everything Turkish. However, real energy experts see several risks of its implementation at once. First of all, energy ships are actually the same Thermal Power Plants (TPPs) that are now under the sights of Russian missiles, and it is impossible to guarantee their safety, even at sea. Secondly, problems are guaranteed to arise with the transportation of electricity from the sea coast to the interior of Ukraine due to the unpreparedness of our infrastructure. Thirdly, the process of adjusting the power supply of energy vessels will be no less problematic. They can run on fuel oil, diesel or gas, but no matter what you choose, delivering fuel via the Black Sea is not the safest operation at the moment. Not to mention the key factor, namely that this whole project will cost our country a lot of money. And at this moment, it is important for us to collect at least 6 billion for mini power plants, not to mention some other plans and projects.
One could praise the government officials for their sudden rationality, if it were not for the relevant minister H. Halushchenko, who continues to promote the completion of power units at the Khmelnytskyi NPP, although it is neither maneuverable nor distributed generation.
So, ahead of us are at least two or three years of energy shortages and significant transformations of the energy system we are used to. It is good that Ukrainian citizens are mostly ready for challenges and adapt quickly. It is bad that the authorities still do not have a coherent plan for future changes, are in no hurry and, obviously, hope that someone else will do the lion's share of the work. Government officials hope that Western partners, businesses, or municipalities will do it. After all, somehow in the end we will be able to find a way out of this situation...
*The survey was conducted by the sociological service of the Razumkov Center on the order of ZN.UA from June 20 to 28, 2024. During the survey, 2,027 respondents aged 18 and over were interviewed. The theoretical sampling error does not exceed 2.3%.