A country of unlearned energy lessons

After a new mass shelling of the energy sector in March, the Minister of Energy of Ukraine, Herman Halushchenko, honestly warned everyone: generators should be bought. This is probably the first time I have completely agreed with this energy minister. He is well aware of the state of the power system and understands that in order to save the situation next winter, it was necessary to start in 2022.

Since then, it seems that enough warnings have been given.

About the fact that for two years of the war, government officials tried to ignore it and prepared for the heating seasons "as usual", using the reduction in consumption due to the occupation.

The fact that the increase in the price of electricity for the population did not affect the preparation in any way – the debt crisis, due to which there is no money in the energy sector for repairs or development, is only deepening.

About the fact that the decentralized energy infrastructure was not built for two years because there was no desire to create investment conditions that cannot be controlled.

That the office of the president of Ukraine and his energy management headquarters were actually preparing plans to increase state control instead of plans to respond to obvious threats.

However, all that was said did not affect the approaches and priorities of the relevant ministry.

Only their sick imagination knows why the Russian Federation will direct missiles at the huge engine rooms of power plants in March. One thing became obvious – we were not ready.

Now the question is: how to get out of the situation? How big should the generators we need be and how much fuel do we need for them? Losses of electrical energy are significantly greater than after the 2022-2023 season. In our country, so many power plants have been bombed that even in hot August we will have a generation deficit, even taking into account the 1.7 GW of imports that have opened up to us thanks to synchronization with ENTSO-E.

Can we hope that, finally, this situation will teach something to the people who are responsible for energy?

There are currently no confirmations. The latest decisions speak only of attempts to delay the time of retribution.

Time is against us

An important aspect to remember: power plants are not built in a short time. This network can be repaired within several months – the time for which a transformer can be ordered and delivered.

It is hardly possible to hope that we will be able to build a lot of energy infrastructure in a short time – energy projects usually take a year or more to build.

The most logical option for restoring the system is the construction of distributed power generation, which will be built near the communities, it will work on fuel that is available in the region (biomass will be used somewhere, gas somewhere, solid fuel somewhere). Projects for such stations still need to be thought through, but European banks can provide funds for them, including within the framework of the Ukraine Facility, if private capital is allowed to invest. Yes, it will take some time, but we will train communities to create projects that are acceptable in the European Union, we will be able to provide power to critical infrastructure, and we will do all this years in advance.

What to do this winter?

Our country should expand imports. There are still opportunities to increase imports, but they require the development of networks on the part of the European Union and political decisions of neighboring countries.

This path is difficult, but correct. It will make it possible to get a more stable system for all subsequent heating seasons. This is the path we were going to take even before the war, in 2019 we promised to quickly make all decisions for integration with European markets. Since then, the fulfillment of promises has been postponed from year to year, as a result it is difficult to talk about the expansion of imports – we have not done our homework, and no one in the neighboring countries will take decisive steps to build additional networks to our border. Last year's statements by the Minister of Energy of Ukraine, who announced an increase in imports to 2 GW, were not enough to change anything.

The situation is such that it is necessary to simultaneously prepare for this winter and many to come: to prepare for the unification of networks, to create conditions for the decentralized supply of electrical energy.

Instead, the Office of the President of Ukraine needs "everything and immediately." But instead of explaining the essence of the problem at the headquarters, the leaders of the energy industry are trying to invent a bicycle to do the dream "everything and immediately".

Incredible projects are impressive.

Delivery of a large number of gas turbines, which are sufficient in the European Union and the United States of America (because they are no longer needed there). Picturesque presentations claim that thanks to this technology we will revive big cities. These color presentations do not mention that the electricity from these turbines will be very expensive, and it can only be connected where there are high pressure points (and they are well known to the Russians). Also, everyone is shyly silent that there is nowhere to connect these turbines: two such turbines have been in Ukraine since last year and are waiting for additional equipment, without which they cannot work.

What will we get next spring? Additional energy powers that may or may not work. For this, the Russians do not even need to use missiles – it is enough to stop the transit. Without transit, the pressure in our network will become such that it will be impossible to use gas turbines equally.

Construction of new nuclear power plants. A great idea for State Enterprise National Nuclear Energy Generating Company "Energoatom" (SE NNEGC "Energoatom"), which promises to increase the capacity of its stations due to new units. First, two new ones were announced at the Khmelnytskyi Nuclear Power Plant, then two more at the South Ukraine Nuclear Power Plant. In general, nine new blocks are promised. But why doesn't the company mention that it took at least ten years to complete the previous stations in the late 90s? So far, a concrete foundation has been made for the new ones. That's all for now.

What will we get next spring? Nothing but debts on the electricity market, which Energoatom will only increase. But it is this project that is the main one in the "Ukrainian plan" advertised by the Ministry of Economy of Ukraine, which shows the priorities of using 50 billion euros for the development of Ukraine.

Restoration of coal stations. This is the most "elegant" way to use the situation in your interests. Let me remind you that most of the coal stations in Ukraine belong to one company of one businessman (who by law is not an oligarch at all). You must have read their desperate statements about the damaged energy infrastructure. These statements are aimed at European and American citizens. Until that moment, the mentioned companies were not ready to give money for restoration, taking into account the reputation of the owner. Now, after the Russian attacks, they are actually (with the help of the Ministry of Energy of Ukraine and the Office of the President of Ukraine) pressuring the partners to return them to the family of clean and untainted companies that can be given money.

What will we get next spring? Several revived coal units that will continue the agony of the private power company.

For what?

So, we have two options to choose from.

The right one is to start building decentralized energy and expand opportunities for transfers from the European Union. Both are long-term promises, and maybe it will finally happen that we can stop "preparing for the heating season in a panic."

Creative, namely, making concrete and buying scrap metal is very expensive "for reconstruction money." The first option seems logical. The government is currently discussing the second option.

"Why?" – the attentive reader will ask. After all, in reality there will be a deficit in any case, this bitter pill from populism will have to be accepted. The answer to pain is simple. Decentralized energy and imports involve the use of money for a large number of projects that cannot be put on hold this spring and summer. And all other projects foresee very "clear" and very centralized control over the spending of funds in the next few months. Under the slogans "we were bombed"!

"What is the logic if everything becomes clear already in December?" – the attentive reader will not be reassured. I'm afraid the answer is very simple: people who lobby for such decisions do not plan to hold positions this winter either in the Ministry of Energy of Ukraine, or in the Office of the President of Ukraine, or in Ukraine.