The other day, Ukraine crossed the symbolic 100 days since the historic decision of the European Council on December 14, 2023 to start accession negotiations with the European Union.
During this period, the Ukrainian authorities were expected to complete the proper implementation of the four recommendations identified in the European Commission's 2023 Ukraine Progress Report. While the European Commission, for its part, will prepare and submit to the Council of the European Union for approval a draft negotiation framework that will determine the form, content and algorithm of the introductory negotiations.
Milestones on the way to the opening of negotiations were to be March 12 – the approval of the draft negotiation framework by the European Commission, March 19 – the meeting of the Council of the European Union on general issues, which accompanies all decisions regarding the European Union's enlargement policy, and March 21 – the meeting of the European Council. At which the leaders of the member states of the European Union were to bless the official start of negotiations at the highest level. It was on these dates that the European Union side should, under an optimistic scenario, make all the decisions necessary for the actual launch of negotiations and create conditions for the convening of the inaugural Ukraine-European Union Intergovernmental Conference.
What went wrong?
Perhaps, the first reason for the postponement of the actual start of negotiations was, strangely enough, overestimated expectations in Ukraine itself. Signals of extraordinary positivity and success in the issue of advancement through rapprochement with the European Union was constantly raised by Kyiv political figures. The work on the diligent implementation of the conditions of the European Union was replaced by the Ukrainian authorities with public populist statements about the estimated dates for the completion of the negotiations and accession to the European Union, which is about to happen. It is only necessary to listen to the unsubstantiated statement of government officials that "Ukraine will be ready for membership in the European Union in two years" to understand what is being said!
The decision of the European Union dated December 14, 2023 predicted the prospects of starting accession negotiations with Ukraine in the near future. In addition, it also referred to a proposal to the Council of the European Union to adopt the negotiating framework already after the relevant conditions outlined in the recommendations of the European Commission have been met. It is about the widely known seven recommendations of the European Commission for Ukraine, which were defined and brought to the attention of the political leaders of Kyiv in June 2022. As the European partners frankly admit, they were formulated in such a way that Kyiv could deal with them as quickly and without difficulty as possible. However, unfortunately, precious time was lost. Instead of the two months promised by the authorities, these recommendations were carried out for more than a year and a half.
As a result, Ukraine did not take advantage of the window of opportunity to start negotiations in 2023. Unfortunately, this window closed in the first half of 2024 due to the start of preparations in Brussels for the June general European elections, the results of which will determine the political distribution of forces in the European Union for the next five years.
Therefore, the leaders of the European Union faced a dilemma: the continuation of the unique "turbo regime" in the process of Ukraine's acquisition of membership in the European Union, on the one hand, did not ensure a "historic breakthrough" on the Ukrainian track, and on the other hand, it increased the electoral irritation of the citizens of the European Union from the artificial geopolitically motivated acceleration and threatened to weaken the positions of "healthy" European political forces in the elections.
This pragmatic choice was embodied in the unexpected for many in Ukraine and the lobbyist countries of our state in the European Union, the position of the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, regarding the approval of the negotiating framework and the start of the opening negotiations not in March, but in June 2024. This symbolized the formation of a consensus among key European leaders regarding the further algorithm of Ukraine's accession to the European Union.
Guided by these considerations, the European Commission prepared a draft of the negotiation framework, which remained without meaningful consideration by the Council of the European Union on general issues, and the European Council welcomed Ukraine's progress in promoting reforms on the way to the European Union and invited the Council of the European Union to approve the negotiation framework as soon as possible. Instead, the proposal of the countries – lawyers of Ukraine to determine the specific time frame of such a decision, in particular "until the end of June 2024", was left unanswered.
Another powerful factor that slowed down the rapid Ukrainian integration was the unresolved issue of the opening of accession negotiations with Bosnia and Herzegovina. In many European capitals, in particular Vienna, Zagreb, Athens, Budapest, etc., a certain irritation was formed due to the imbalance of attention of the European Union in the context of the expansion between the "Balkan" and "Eastern" tracks. Therefore, the decision of the March meeting of the European Council to give the "green light" to the opening of negotiations with Bosnia and Herzegovina regarding their accession was the result of a complex political compromise between ardent advocates of the "Balkan track" – Croatia, Austria, and Hungary – and lobbyists of Ukraine and Moldova – the Baltic states, Poland.
In the highest political circles of the European Union, there is a general understanding that the two tracks – the Balkan and the Eastern – should not interfere with each other, but rather go in parallel, if possible. So, there are reasons to believe that Ukraine's future path to membership in the European Union will be largely related to the dynamics of Bosnia and Herzegovina. Balkan lobbyists will make maximum use of the "Ukrainian card" to artificially accelerate the membership of this important state for many European countries.
It should also not be forgotten that despite the recognition of the enlargement policy as the most successful policy of the European Union, this process has never been simple. The experience of previous waves gradually added new recommendations and requirements from the European Union. It is not for nothing that Brussels constantly emphasizes that the process of joining the European Union, as before, is based on established criteria and conditions. Yes, it allows any country in the process to move forward on its own merits. Each country is able to determine the speed of its entry. However, this does not mean that the necessary criteria on the way to membership can be abolished, namely the requirements – softened, and the movement - accelerated. Over the years, the "filter of European integration" has become very strict indeed, and it is unlikely to miss the approaches and measures of the candidate country that are incompatible with the standards of the European Union, especially in terms of fundamental principles.
What's next?
The next procedural step on the way to Ukraine's membership in the European Union is the approval by the Council of the European Union on general issues of the negotiating framework and the convening of the inaugural session of the Intergovernmental Conference – the main mechanism for conducting high-level introductory negotiations.
By itself, the negotiating framework, the project of which was developed by the European Commission, is not a unique document, besides, it was not developed specifically for the "Ukrainian integration breakthrough". This document is a standard negotiation model in terms of form and content.
The most important of the provisions of this framework is that of all the negotiating chapters on approximation to European legislation and the fulfillment of the membership criteria, the chapters called "Principles" are of key importance, namely: justice, freedom and security, financial control, public procurement and statistics, as well as public administration and democratic institutions. These sections are opened first and closed last. And they will be the subject of discussions at the inaugural meeting of the Intergovernmental Conference. In addition, the Ukrainian side, in cooperation with the European Commission, should develop three "road maps" in the areas of justice, justice, freedom and security, public administration and democratic institutions, which will contain criteria and indicators of the success of the relevant reforms. In this context, the Plan within the framework of the Ukraine Support Mechanism for 2024-2027, handed over to the side of the European Union at the meeting of the Ukraine-EU Association Council on March 20, 2024, should play an auxiliary positive role for Ukraine.
In addition, the state of implementation or non-implementation of the "Principles" by Ukraine will determine both the speed of the opening negotiations and the perspective of their dynamics in general. After all, if Ukraine violates the fundamental principles or does not properly observe them, there is a threat of freezing the opening negotiations. This is clearly provided for in the mentioned negotiating framework.
Today, there are two options for the further development of events:
- optimistic – approval by the Council of the European Union of the negotiating framework immediately after the pan-European elections to the European Parliament in June (this is now being actively discussed by the leadership of the European Union institutions and the authorities of Ukraine);
- pessimistic – postponement of the decision to December 2024 and its adoption by the Council of the European Union on the basis of the regular report of the European Commission on the progress of enlargement for 2024.
The pessimistic option contains political uncertainties and threats, as it will depend on the results of the elections to the European Parliament, the prospective composition of the new European Commission and the leadership of the European Union institutions, as well as on the further development of the security situation in Ukraine.
Ukraine's pace of European integration will also be affected by the process of reforming the European Union itself, which should increase the ability to "absorb new member states." In view of this, the communication presented by the European Commission in March on the expansion of the European Union and the necessary internal reforms of the European Union deserves attention. In particular, it contains a recommendation on the gradual integration of new members into the community even before their entry by providing them with certain advantages and obligations associated with membership in the European Union. In addition, a proposal is made to abandon the principle of unanimity when making decisions in certain areas of foreign and security policy and to switch to qualified majority voting.
Although the European Council plans to discuss and present a roadmap for reforming the European Union in connection with the enlargement in the summer of 2024, several conclusions can already be drawn.
First, the initiative does not mean accelerating Ukraine's accession to the European Union, but offers a model of gradual integration, namely the opportunity for Ukraine, the economy, and citizens to enjoy certain advantages of membership even before the entry into force of the Treaty on Ukraine's Accession to the European Union.
Secondly, the idea is not new for Ukraine. It is on this philosophy that the entire Association Agreement was built, including the deep and comprehensive free trade zone, in which Ukraine gradually gained access to the internal market of the European Union in sectors where the criteria were fully met and the policies and legislation of the European Union were harmonized. We will remind you about integration into the energy space of the European Union, initiatives of 2017 regarding the digital market, the sphere of justice and internal affairs, customs integration, etc.
Thirdly, a fundamentally important element is that gradual integration is not a guaranteed development of events, but an exclusively and rigidly determined process. To implement these initiatives, Ukraine must fully fulfill its part of the work – and it is not only about the adoption of this or that law or regulatory act, but first of all about their effective implementation.
Who is to blame and what to do?
Recently, the Ukrainian authorities have been trying to shift all the responsibility for delaying the accession negotiations to the leadership of Hungary and the European Union Commissioner for Enlargement, Olivér Várhelyi.
At the same time, it should be recognized that official Kyiv has neither managed to ensure effective diplomatic pressure on the leadership of institutions and member states of the European Union, nor to ensure full implementation of the European Commission's recommendations to speed up the accession process.
The diplomacy of political figures on Bankova Street and on the Hungarian track did not work. Let's not forget that Hungary will preside over the European Union in the second half of 2024. However, it has not yet been possible to organize contact along the Zelenskyy-Orbán line. Contacts along the Yermak-Szijjártó and Stefanyshyna-Olivér Várhelyi lines have not yet been able to give a constructive result for Ukraine. "Green" parliamentary diplomacy does not work with Budapest either. There are signs of erosion of support for Ukraine from Austria and Slovakia. Instead, all initiatives of patriotic pro-European political forces to help work with the so-called inconvenient countries are exposed to sabotage and furious resistance from political figures on Bankova Street. Only the draft law on "life imprisonment for usurping state functions" initiated by the pro-presidential party in the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine is worth a lot! According to information from our own sources, this provocation greatly inspired some capitals of skeptical countries.
It is worth remembering that, regardless of the personality and nationality of the commissioner in this or the next European Commission, democratic principles are the "alpha and omega" of trust in the Ukrainian authorities, the pace of accession negotiations with the European Union and the criteria for providing financial assistance to Ukraine within the framework of the Ukraine Support Mechanism for 50 billion euros for 2024-2027.
And if the first tranche of assistance within the framework of the Ukraine Facility (Ukraine Facility) in the amount of 4.5 billion euros with the prospect of an additional 1.5 billion euros being allocated in April was transferred to Ukraine without strict binding to the fulfillment of conditions, then subsequent payments will be subject to careful evaluation by the European Union.
Therefore, it is politically important to unite efforts to ensure the proper implementation of all the recommendations of the European Commission by June, to resolve acute domestic political issues related to the state of democracy, the rule of law, political and parliamentary pluralism. In addition, it is also important to resolve the issue of respecting the rights of the opposition and ensuring the rights of national minorities in Ukraine, which, among other things, were reflected not only in the reports of the European Commission, but also in the resolutions of the European Parliament.
The next 100 days are important and will determine the fate of Ukraine's European integration progress in the years to come.