Russia is increasing the import of components that are absolutely necessary for the production of projectiles. The Trap Aggressor team analyzed the supply of key ammunition components for the year 2023 and saw a sharp increase in cellulose and nitrocellulose imports from Central Asia and China. In addition, deliveries from Western democratic countries were also noticed.
The Russian military-industrial complex does not disclose the details of the supply, but we managed to learn something interesting about these trade relationships. For example, about the export of nitrocellulose from China or Taiwan to the Russian Federation — a dual-purpose material used for the production of ammunition. It has grown dramatically since the Russian Federation began its full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
The Russian Federation is dependent on the supply of cellulose
The volume of growing its own cotton on the territory of the Russian Federation does not allow it to cover its own needs, and the use of other sources (such as wood, flax) requires the introduction of new technologies, as well as time. The launch of new technological processes is impossible in the conditions of the introduction of sanctions by Western countries. Therefore, against the background of a lack of necessary components, the Russian Federation attracts imports from other countries for the production of the necessary items.
In 2023, Russians imported cotton worth 11.7 million dollars. The main exporter of raw materials to the Russian Federation is Uzbekistan. It is worth noting that this country is one of the leaders in the export of cotton cellulose. Uzbekistan exported 90% of all Russian imports of the specified raw materials to the Russian Federation. The value of Uzbekistan's exports reached 10.7 million dollars. The main exporter is the Fergana Chemical Plant (Fargona Kimyo Zavodi). Its export share was 49.6% of the total volume of deliveries with a value of 5.8 million dollars.
According to our information, the Fergana Chemical Plant is managed by Nomonzhon Hafurovych Amonov and Elmurodzhon Adkhamovych Choianov. At the same time, the owners, as far as is known (because the registers of companies in Uzbekistan are closed. — O.L.), are Mikhail Glukhov and Rustam Muminov.
The Fergana chemical plant supplies cotton cellulose not only to the Russian Federation, but also to Turkey, China, Serbia, and also to the countries of the European Union (Bulgaria and the Czech Republic). From February 2022, the Bulgarian arms manufacturer Arsenal JS Co purchased the raw materials of the Fergana Chemical Plant for $1.2 million.
The Fergana Chemical Plant is not the only one involved in production for the Russian Federation
According to our data, in 2022–2023, the Fergana Chemical Plant made direct deliveries to two Russian gunpowder plants, namely Kazan and Perm.
We managed to identify one more Uzbek importer of cellulose in the Russian Federation, which turned out to be Raw Materials Cellulose. The value of exported raw materials is 4.1 million dollars, which is 35% of the total volume of cotton cellulose imports from Uzbekistan to Russia. Trade data published by the Kyiv School of Economics indicate that in 2022 Raw Materials Cellulose made 14 direct deliveries to the Tambov Powder Plant worth half a million dollars.
Help ZN.UA. Raw Materials Cellulose was registered on November 17, 2017. The company started production on June 1, 2020. The manager is Sherzod Akhadovych Shukurlaiev. Owners — Rustam Muminov, Mikhail Glukhov, Larisa Utkina.
The third importer of cellulose to the Russian Federation is Baxtteks Farm. It is a manufacturer of wound dressings and cellulose. Baxtteks Farm was established in 2010, production began in 2013. The volume of export of cellulose produced by Baxtteks Farm to the Russian Federation is 1 million dollars.
Two more companies are also among the top five exporters of cotton cellulose. AkaltinLogistics Center by order Omega Logistics Dwc: the cost of raw materials for the export of cellulose to the Russian Federation is $508,000. Kubat Impex also exported cellulose. The value of exported raw materials is 181,000 dollars.
In addition to Uzbekistan, cellulose exports were provided by Spain, China, Germany and unidentified suppliers.
How dependent is Russia on nitrocellulose supplies
Concentrated nitric acid is produced in the Russian Federation by the following enterprises: "Nevinnomyssk Azot" (Nevinnomyssk, Stavropol Territory, part of the international company "EuroChem Group AG" (Switzerland), "Novomoskovsk Joint-Stock Company Azot (NAK AZOT)" (Novomoskovsk, Tula Region), Branch "United Chemical Company "Uralchem" (city of Berezniki, Perm Krai), "Vekton" (city of St. Petersburg, Leningrad region), as well as 11 other enterprises produce unconcentrated nitric acid.
Production of technical sulfuric acid is established at 26 enterprises.
In the conditions of active military operations, the Russian Federation cannot cover the need for nitrocellulose only with its own factory capacities. It is known that during the full-scale invasion, exports of nitrocellulose increased by 70%. According to our data, in 2023, the Russian Federation imported these raw materials in the amount of 18.3 million dollars.
Under optimal conditions, approximately 850 g of cotton cellulose is needed to produce one kilogram of nitrocellulose.
The average price of cotton pulp from Uzbekistan is about 1,800 dollars per ton. That is, knowing the volume of import of the specified product worth 11.7 million dollars, we calculate that the approximate volume of cotton cellulose imported to Russia is 6,500 tons. This is enough for the synthesis of 7,600 tons of nitrocellulose.
The price of technical nitrocellulose in the Russian Federation as of 2023 is on average 5,550 dollars. That is, the volume of import of nitrocellulose to the Russian Federation is about 3,400 tons. Now we add nitrocellulose obtained from imported cellulose, and we get 11,000 tons of raw materials necessary for the production of smokeless powder.
Usually in a projectile, gunpowder makes up about 50–70% of its weight. That is, for a 152-caliber projectile weighing 43.56 kg, the average weight of gunpowder is 26.14 kg, and for a 122-caliber projectile weighing 21.76 kg, the average weight of gunpowder is 13.01 kg.
At the same time, the volume of nitrocellulose in smokeless powder directly depends on its chemical composition, modification and quality. It is clear that the chemical composition of Soviet gunpowder was classified. However, a general internet search shows that the nitrocellulose content is 20-98% of the total volume, including stabilizers and ballistic components.
As a result, after performing minor mathematical calculations, it can be assumed that imported cellulose and nitrocellulose to the Russian Federation will be enough to manufacture: from 0.5 million to 2.1 million shells of 152 caliber, from 0.9 million to 4.2 million shells of 122 caliber, depending on the powder filling.
Russia has increased its imports of explosives needed for the production of artillery ammunition. Despite the sanctions, Western companies helped the aggressor country. And although the main exporter of cellulose to the Russian Federation, according to our research, is Uzbekistan, in addition to it, the export of the specified component was provided by Spain, China, Germany and some suppliers not identified by us.
Therefore, in order to prevent this cooperation, the Trap Aggressor team calls on the relevant authorities — OFAC in the United States of America, the Office of Financial Sanctions in the United Kingdom, as well as the Council of the European Union — to impose sanctions on companies supplying this substance, which are still not under similar economic restrictions. Because as long as the world continues to provide scarce substances for the Russian military–industrial complex (MIC), the Russians will be able to wage a bloody war in Ukraine.