The first half of the second winter of the war passed much better than expected. Diesel generators stockpiled for the winter are mostly not used now, but this does not mean that they should be sold. The current frosts are not the last. And winter in the energy sector generally lasts until mid-April.
There are attacks on the energy system, but they are noticeably weaker than last year, and preparations to eliminate their consequences are obviously stronger. After all, the experience of last winter was not in vain for our country. As a result, and generally fortunately for us, we manage to avoid massive power outages. This is not easy, but the power engineers are trying to cope with all the breakdowns that take place.
The system suffered greatly last year. Thermal power plants have been hit by missile strikes - there is not a single large thermal power plant that has not been hit, several times in a row. Hydroelectric power plants also suffered. And last year’s attack, which affected the work of transformers of a national energy company called Ukrenergo, which disabled about half of the equipment, has no precedents at all since World War II. Moreover, if bombs do not fly near your house, this does not mean that they do not fly anywhere, and there is only one energy system, it does not matter where exactly the energy shortage occurs.
The Kurakhivska thermal power plant near Donetsk, for example, was recently shelled for the twelfth time in two months. There is a video of shells exploding at the station online, and yet it continues to work. Currently, two units are actively operating there. Surely many were impressed by the consequences of a drone strike on a wind turbine.
Of course, last year’s bomb attacks and damage also did not go unnoticed – the emergency condition of the restored equipment is high (people traditionally turned out to be stronger). And this season, in order to avoid shortages, even previously mothballed (read: almost decommissioned) thermal power plant units were put into operation.
Nevertheless, consumers generally have enough electricity, although from time to time the deficit has to be covered not only by imports, but also by emergency assistance.
No one can guarantee the absence of new waves of attacks; rather, on the contrary, they will begin again sooner or later... It is also impossible to promise that the air defense system will shoot down all enemy missiles and drones... It always performs almost a miracle with its work. But there are no fairy tales. Especially when there are obvious interruptions in external support.
The main load in the energy system is still borne by nuclear power plants – their share in power generation ranges from 55 to 60%. All nine units located in the unoccupied territory are operational. Their operation mode is extremely intense and such a schedule will create problems later, but now the main thing is to get through the winter.
However, the ability of nuclear power plants to take on the load at peak times is very limited, so in such situations, hydroelectric and thermal power plants are also actively used. The water supply for hydropower is more or less normal this year, but naturally its generation is not enough to meet all the needs. So the “green transition” is of course a very good idea, but thermal power plants that use coal and gas to operate have to maneuver and find some suitable way out of the difficult situation.
Now there are less than 750 thousand tons of coal left in stocks of thermal power plants. This stock is not enough until the end of winter – state-owned mines traditionally do not fulfill their already modest production plans. The good news is that prices for imported coal have fallen, but logistic issues are not resolved - transporting coal is difficult, time-consuming and expensive.
The main problems with coal are observed at the state-owned electricity and heat production company Centrenergo. Its Zmiyivska thermal power plant in the Kharkiv region is within the firing range even for anti-aircraft missiles, and it also takes the longest to transport coal from the border there. Of course, both facts should not have become big news for Centrenergo this winter, but they became...
In the end, as always, all hopes are pinned to gas. The aforementioned Centerenergo company planned to operate up to four out of six units on gas. Or maybe all six, because this company doesn’t plan to pay for this gas anyway.
There are currently about 11.7 BCM of gas in the underground gas storage facilities. This is even slightly more than last year. In cold weather, about 100-120 million cubic meters are pumped out every day, in warmer – 60-70 BCM. But there is a nuance... Not all of it belongs to Naftogaz of Ukraine.
About 1.3 BCM is gas owned by non-residents, who simply store it in our underground gas storage facilities and gradually export it to their homeland. At the beginning of the season there was about 2.5 billion cubic meters of such gas, that is, half has already been exported. We shouldn't count on it too much, although, as a last resort, we can try to buy something back. In Europe, gas has now fallen in price, and prices on European exchanges fluctuate around 360 dollars. Not too different from our prices.
Another approximately two billion cubic meters of gas belong to private companies (including PrJSC MC Ukrnaftoburinnya), which has not previously been used for the needs of households and industry. Industrial consumption after the full-scale invasion fell sharply, part of the gas sector lost consumers, and now this gas is found underground without much need for its extraction. The “bright ideas” that arise from time to time to buy it at “social prices” are a sure way to create a very bad precedent, undermining the prospects for gas production in the country for a long time.
Naftogaz of Ukraine itself understands this, and buys gas at the Ukrainian Energy Exchange prices, but in very modest volumes, of course.
In general, the end of the heating season, among other things, will traditionally highly depend on the weather. So far it has been noticeably warmer than normal. We will easily survive a warm winter, we will survive a slightly colder winter than usual with problems... And with a severe winter, the likelihood that our country will be able to successfully survive it becomes lower. But we will survive such a winter with the remaining reserves, it will just be more difficult.
By the way, we were recently notified of the future arrival of five gas turbines for electricity generation. Earlier, 47 megawatts were announced as part of this project... It’s a useful thing, and I wouldn’t want last year’s story to repeat with it. Then a modest, 1 MW turbine was first urgently brought in by plane, with speeches and fanfare, and then for months officials considered options for who would be given responsibility for its operation. As a result, it could be carried by sailboats and camels - it would not have affected the commissioning dates in any way.
In general, we need to start thinking about the future. The way the thermal units are breaking down now means that by next winter they will need repairs, otherwise they will simply not work. Repairs cost a lot of money, which needs to be raised somewhere. It’s time to think about the schedule of restarting nuclear power plants. In addition, it is worth resolving the issue of organizing electricity imports, and when possible, exports.
And also to make sure that the construction of shelters for transformers does not turn into a complete waste of allocated funds (there is such a tendency). For many, tens of billions of hryvnias for this program are simply a resource for getting benefits to the right people supplying concrete, reinforcement and other things. The deadlines for commissioning the shelters themselves were successfully delayed, oh, sorry, “shifted” to the right. Who is guilty? No one is to blame for this.
There are also issues with the energy sector decentralization. Currently, thermal energy generation relies on 26–28 operating thermal units. Disabling every unit poses a problem. For maneuverability, hundreds of smaller ones are needed. Fortunately, such technology already exists. Where necessary, small units are already being purchased, using both gas and local raw materials. It won't be quick, but these projects need to be promoted without becoming an endless topic of conversation.
And since we have avoided massive shelling of the energy system so far, and are lucky with the weather, the time spared should be used usefully, preparing for future possible emergency situations. We actually have a lot of problems, despite the fact that spring is already in sight.