Last summer was not particularly successful for foreign sales of Ukrainian agricultural products, the country’s main export commodity. Should Ukraine be concerned about the shortfall in foreign exchange earnings?
First of all, several factors contributed to the summer slump:
- drought in the south, a late harvest, and generally lower yields of early grains;
- the termination of trade preferences for Ukraine in June and the reinstatement of EU export quotas;
- the escalation of Russian attacks on port and rail infrastructure;
- uncertainty between the adoption in mid-July and the presidential signing in early September of the so-called rapeseed and soybean amendments.
Added to these were modest carryover stocks of key export crops (particularly corn), higher fuel costs, ongoing disputes between railway operators and traders over freight tariffs, expensive sea freight due to military risks and a host of other “minor” issues, resulting in a very tough situation for agricultural exporters, who usually account for more than half of Ukraine’s export revenue.
Luckily, a relatively favorable price environment on international markets for producers and exporters prevented a full-blown crisis.
As a result, after rather modest July figures (3.4 million tons versus 5.4 million tons in July last year), exports from Ukraine picked up somewhat toward the end of summer. According to the Ukrainian Agribusiness Club (UAC), in August our farmers and traders exported 4 million tons of agricultural products, 15.6 percent more than in the previous month.
Export structure and prices
Global wheat prices declined in August and early September due to good harvests in the EU and Russia and improved forecasts for Australia. Unfortunately, Ukraine cannot boast such results. Therefore, although domestic prices dropped somewhat after the harvest campaign, they remain favorable for producers. This applies to both milling and feed wheat. Feed wheat prices are holding strong due to high demand stemming from the delayed start of the corn harvest. Milling grain, in turn, is now being actively purchased by processing companies to stockpile in anticipation of winter price increases.
While wheat and rapeseed shipments rose at the end of summer, exports of oilseed products declined due to a shortage of raw materials and reduced processing volumes at the end of the season.
For example, sunflower oil exports fell to 150,000 tons—the worst result in more than three years. Moreover, according to the Grain Trade electronic exchange, there were no deliveries to India in August, where Ukrainian oil typically competes directly with Russian oil.
Analysts expect much better results in September–October, as processors are likely to rush to seize the current opportunity window—export prices of $1,170–1,200 per ton with delivery to port or the western border. This is especially important by late October, since November will bring a seasonal surge in sunflower oil supplies from our Black Sea competitors and palm oil from Asia.
Due to the absence of carryover sunflower stocks, oil extraction plants are increasing rapeseed processing. However, rapeseed exports came to a complete halt in September. Even producers, who by law are exempt from the 10 percent export duty (unlike traders), are not shipping rapeseed either. The reason is that the mechanism for verifying the origin of raw materials has not yet been developed, and customs authorities canceled all periodic declarations used for exports in August starting from September 4.
Supply volumes and harvest forecasts
From the start of the new marketing season (July 1) through the first ten days of September, Ukraine exported more than 4.6 million tons of grains and legumes—3.3 million tons less than last year. Wheat traditionally accounts for the largest share—almost 3.1 million tons—but this is over 1 million tons less than in the same period of the 2024/2025 season. Less than 700,000 tons of barley were exported. Corn exports are also modest—about 900,000 tons, nearly three times less than on the same date last year.
European quotas are also depressing exports of other agricultural goods.
The gross grain harvest is gradually approaching 30 million tons, with almost 65 percent of sown areas already threshed. According to the Ministry of Economy, farmers have harvested more than 22 million tons of wheat, over 5.2 million tons of barley, 610,000 tons of peas and almost 800,000 tons of other grains and legumes. The gross rapeseed harvest exceeded 3.2 million tons. Soybean and sunflower harvesting has just begun, with 135,000 and 208,000 tons collected, respectively.
Current yields of major crops are 15–20 percent lower than last year and below the decade average. Farmers and experts expect corn to somewhat improve the situation. Most corn acreage lies in central and northern regions, where crops did not suffer from moisture deficits. Yields of other late crops (millet, buckwheat, sunflower, soybeans) will be lower than in 2024, but not critically so.
Exports of other agricultural products
During the 2024/2025 marketing season, sugar producers exported 580,000 tons of sugar—16 percent less than the year before. According to the National Association of Sugar Producers of Ukraine, only 17 percent of exports went to EU countries, compared to 77 percent in 2023/2024. In other words, sugar producers are among those most affected by the return of EU quotas on Ukrainian agricultural exports and by restrictive measures introduced by some European states. Alternative markets have included Türkiye, Libya, North Macedonia, Lebanon and Somalia.
In August, Ukraine also cut dairy exports to 10,600 tons. This resulted from both the exhaustion of EU quotas and falling butter prices. According to the industry association, exports declined by 19 percent compared to July, when sales were still within EU quotas. Export revenues also fell, to $31.2 million. In September, after quotas are fully exhausted, farmers and traders will likely only dream of such figures.
A ray of hope from the EU and other markets
In the coming days, Ukraine and the European Union are expected to sign an updated trade agreement that will expand quotas on agricultural products while retaining protective mechanisms for EU member states’ markets. The document is expected to come into force by the end of September. Taras Kachka, Deputy Prime Minister for European and Euro-Atlantic Integration of Ukraine, confirmed this at the UAC conference, specifying that wheat quotas could rise from 1 million to 1.3 million tons, barley from 350,000 to 450,000 tons, poultry from 90,000 to 120,000 tons and sugar from 20,000 to 100,000 tons.
One negative compromise is a clause allowing EU member states to temporarily restrict imports of certain Ukrainian products at any time. For instance, Warsaw has already said Poland is ready to use this tool “to protect its farmers” immediately after the agreement is signed.
Still, experts believe Ukrainian exporters can find alternatives to the EU market relatively quickly, though the process takes time. Despite consistently high global demand for food, entering markets that are logistically and financially advantageous for Ukraine is not easy.
Harvest prospects for 2026
Meanwhile, the autumn sowing campaign is gaining momentum, raising hopes for stronger export performance next season. More than 60 percent of the planned rapeseed area has already been sown. In some regions, winter wheat, barley and rye sowing has also begun.
In early September, agrometeorological conditions were favorable across most of the country: temperatures remained summer-like, soil moisture was generally good and even the southern regions received light rainfall. Overall, according to the Ministry of Economy, about 6.5 million hectares are to be sown with winter crops this year (5.42 million hectares with wheat, barley and rye and over 1.1 million hectares with rapeseed).
Experts’ harvest forecasts are especially encouraging. The Institute of Agricultural Economics projects that grain yields in 2026 could reach 4.8–5.1 tons per hectare—the highest since the start of the full-scale invasion. Still, it is impossible to make precise predictions a year before harvest: too many factors could affect the outcome. Moreover, it remains unclear how much land will ultimately be planted with various crops.
At the same time, experts warn we cannot count on a major expansion of cultivated areas. The reasons are the expansion of the war zone and the slow pace of demining. As is well known, the Accounting Chamber has concluded that without a structural reform of the mine-action system, full land clearance could take several decades.