“Today, when neither civil society nor the media no longer feel any clear US support because of the Trump administration’s demonstrable indifference to the values that were once central, Ukraine’s authorities have finally allowed themselves to show their true colors. These people are becoming who they really are: predators emerging from an open cage.
This will affect everyone—independent media, civil society organizations and the entire anti-corruption infrastructure: the National Anti-Corruption Bureau (NABU), the Specialized Anti-Corruption Prosecutor’s Office (SAPO), the High Anti-Corruption Court (HACC) and the National Agency on Corruption Prevention (NACP). They will be next. Because the goal now is to settle scores with everything that once hoisted the banners of ‘democracy,’ ‘transparency,’ ‘anti-corruption’ and ‘free elections.’ For powers that be, the war has become a convenient backdrop for putting these true ambitions into action.”
We apologize for quoting ourselves—specifically, ZN.UA’s earlier statement on the government’s pressure campaign against Vitalii Shabunin, head of the Anti-Corruption Action Center. But, as always, we warned in advance. Our core prediction about the erosion of democracy and the rule of law in Ukraine was made back in 2022. It took the authorities just ten days to prove us right. Following the refusal of the Shmyhal—and now Svyrydenko—cabinets to comply with the law and appoint NABU detective Oleksandr Tsyvinskyi as head of the Economic Security Bureau (ESB), despite his clear victory in an open and transparent competition; after the selective prosecution of Vitalii Shabunin; and amid a coordinated smear campaign against us by anonymous Telegram trash channels, a strike from the Presidential Office against NABU and SAPO became not just predictable but inevitable.
However, the speed with which the Security Service of Ukraine (SSU), without a court order, was slamming “FSB agents” and “oligarch accomplices from NABU” face down on the floor, and with which the Parliament today passed draft law No. 12414, effectively eliminating the independence of NABU and SAPO, is not only shocking but also leaves President Zelenskyy less and less time and fewer opportunities to return to the rule of law, preserve democratic Ukraine and to save face in history.
Why has the Presidential Office gone off the rails right now? What have Zelenskyy’s law enforcement officials pinned on NABU and SAPO in order to cover up the political operation to dismantle the independence of the anti-corruption bloc? How did the puppet parliament implement a scenario long developed in the Presidential Office? And does Zelenskyy still have a chance to reverse this grim scenario that bodes ill for Ukraine?
Why now?
Until recently, the Presidential Office managed to coexist with Ukraine’s anti-corruption institutions by adopting a strategy of shedding ballast: whenever NABU’s investigations approached someone close to the president, that individual was quietly dismissed—and the charismatic “Servant of the People” could continue pedaling his cinematic-democracy bicycle unburdened. But the deeper one becomes embedded in the system, the heavier the weight becomes. Zelenskyy failed to notice the moment he traded that bicycle for a steamroller. Today, safeguarding his inner circle has become the top priority. While Kyrylo Tymoshenko could be tossed from the Presidential Office and later shamelessly reassigned to the Ministry of Defense, figures like Oleksii Chernyshov (or rather, Timur Mindich, for whom NABU also prepared a notice of suspicion) and Oleksii Reznikov cannot be removed from the “family” so easily. Nor can Rostyslav Shurma, whose case has also seen investigative progress in NABU. These figures are too interconnected—financially, personally and politically.
When a monarch can no longer guarantee the flow of rents to his favorites, unrest brews within the kingdom. When the Supreme Commander can’t shield his inner circle, his supremacy is hollow. That is why Zelenskyy’s overriding priority today is to protect figures like Chernyshov, Reznikov, Shurma and Mindich. (The latter, however, has little to worry about. Never a public official and holding an Israeli passport, Mindich can simply vanish from Ukraine and resurface quietly in another country at war.) The underlying objective is to prevent any of these men from striking deals with investigators if—or rather, when—NABU presents serious evidence. According to our sources, that evidence already exists.
All of this is unfolding at a critical juncture. The United States continues to pressure Zelenskyy not to seek a second term. Donald Trump holds a powerful card that can knock the ruling president out of the game: not only classified intelligence detailing high-level corruption within Ukraine but also NABU’s investigative files and, potentially, the testimonies of Zelenskyy’s closest confidants. A volatile combination for a president whose inner circle has become his greatest liability.
The war may continue to drag on and the investigations could gain momentum. But even if a ceasefire is reached sooner and Zelenskyy proceeds with a re-election bid, the core issue remains unresolved. At best, he wins. But what if he doesn’t? The criminal investigations will not vanish. And that is the trap: no longer avoidable, only destructible. Now, Zelenskyy holds every lever of power to bulldoze through it—loyal security agencies, a compliant parliament and a subservient government. Add to that a convenient backdrop: a war for national survival. And surrounding him is a vast, silent class of officials, businesspeople, politicians and lawyers—all eager to outlast the war, to survive just a little longer. Even if it means sacrificing others.
What are NABU detectives being accused of?
There have been 80 raids on NABU detectives, marked by forced entry, physical intimidation and traumatized families. Masked and heavily armed Security Service operatives—the very same men who only recently nearly crippled Russia’s air force with Ukrainian drones—now appear just as indifferent to existential threats as their Russian counterparts. The order was given: “Put them face down.” And so, the order was followed. They executed the command with precision—just like the anonymous Telegram channel handlers who, unsurprisingly, were the first to receive and circulate discrediting footage of the raids.
First, on July 21, the SSU and the Prosecutor General’s Office (PGO) conducted a raid on Ruslan Magamedrasulov, head of a regional detective unit at NABU. He is suspected of having ties to the Russian FSB via Fedir Khrystenko, former MP from the Opposition Platform – For Life, and of concealing his father’s Russian citizenship when applying for clearance to state secrets. Khrystenko is currently wanted in absentia on charges of treason. NABU documents were reportedly found among his contacts. Additional details cited by investigators include the fact that Magamedrasulov’s mother receives a pension from the so-called Donetsk People’s Republic, and his father allegedly cultivated industrial hemp for sale in Dagestan.
Second, another case accuses NABU detectives of aiding oligarchs—specifically, in the illegal departure of Hennadii Boholiubov. According to investigators, NABU detectives traveled in a neighboring train compartment to provide “backup,” and the operation was allegedly coordinated by Khrystenko. NABU denies the allegation, stating that the detectives were en route to a forum in Vienna and that the timing was a coincidence. According to the SSU, the detectives’ direct supervisor, Oleksandr Skomarov—head of a NABU department—is also linked to Khrystenko. NABU has characterized the SSU actions as retaliation for its case against Oleksii Chernyshov, former Deputy Prime Minister.
Third, in Kyiv, the SSU and PGO arrested another “mole” in NABU—Viktor Husarov, an officer in the classified D-2 unit. According to the SSU, he transmitted secret information over 60 times to Dmytro Ivantsov, a former bodyguard of Yanukovych, in exchange for money. NABU claims the SSU had previously found no evidence of guilt, and the Bureau has not received official results of the investigation.
Fourth, the PGO announced suspicions against three NABU employees involved in traffic accidents with injuries. At first glance, nothing unusual—except all the incidents occurred in 2021 and 2023. Clearly, old cases were dredged up to support the campaign to “cleanse” anti-corruption bodies.
NABU is no cathedral of saints. But the principles on which the institution was founded—in close cooperation with international partners—allowed it to preserve its independence. Despite a string of well-known public scandals involving information leaks to the Presidential Office, a “puppet director” Kryvonos pushed through by Gizo Uglava and more. Each claim made by the SSU and PGO certainly must be investigated. But none of them justify the dismantling of independent institutions like NABU and SAPO, the key guarantees of Ukraine’s movement toward Europe. Investigate the individuals, but don’t destroy the institutions.
Zelenskyy did not dissolve the SSU when his friend Ivan Bakanov surrendered Chonhar and placed FSB agents in key roles within the agency. Former SSU chief in Crimea, Oleh Kulinich, is suspected of cooperating with Russian intelligence and treason. Dmytro Koziura, head of the central anti-terrorist department of the SSU since 2016, confessed in court to passing information to an FSB agent—14 incidents are documented in the case. The former head of the SSU’s internal security, Andrii Naumov, passed classified data about the Chornobyl nuclear plant to Russian intelligence and is charged with treason. The former SSU head in Kharkiv region, Roman Dudin, is also implicated in a treason case.
We’re not even talking about the number of moles in all branches of government, whom we continually learn about—or already know, just by looking at the former members of the Opposition Platform – For Life still seated in the Parliament. But when they vote with the authorities, they become useful moles.
How did the Presidential Office implement its plan?
Before yesterday’s blitzkrieg in the Rada, several scenarios for “killing off” the anti-corruption authorities were under discussion. Amending legislation was the most reliable but also the most difficult path. Two hours after the vote, the parliament website publishes the roll call, and you become part of history. A moment when one might recall the existence of a conscience.
The essence of the adopted draft law can be reduced to the following key points:
- The Prosecutor General becomes the head of SAPO prosecutors, effectively subordinating SAPO and influencing NABU investigations.
- The Prosecutor General gains the right to take cases away from NABU and hand them over to other prosecutors.
- The ban on transferring cases from NABU to other bodies is lifted.
Several MPs from European Solidarity called for the bill to be removed from the agenda, citing violations of parliamentary procedure and basic logic in both its content and the manner of its promotion. But only 53 MPs voted to exclude the draft law: Holos, European Solidarity and 25 from Servant of the People.
The top speaker of that session was Batkivshchyna (Homeland) leader Yuliia Tymoshenko. In defense of the Presidential Office, Yuliia Volodymyrivna lashed out at international partners allegedly imposing their rules on Ukraine and passionately supported state sovereignty without fighting corruption. A swansong for those who still had doubts about the true nature of this politician.
Ironically, the European Solidarity faction opposed the bill, even while NABU is investigating two cases involving Petro Poroshenko. MPs like Oleksii Honcharenko, Ivanna Klympush-Tsintsadze and Iryna Herashchenko spoke out, vainly urging their colleagues to think of the future and not destroy institutions that had taken ten years to build. This same faction, together with Holos, attempted to block the podium. But Speaker Ruslan Stefanchuk acted professionally and assertively. The law was passed with 263 votes. The head of the Servant of the People faction, Davyd Arakhamia—who spent the night gathering those votes—is once again in high favor.
“Just don’t compare this vote dismantling NABU and SAPO to the ‘laws of January 16’ [from the Yanukovych era]. Even back then, votes were hard to collect, and those MPs from Party of Regions voted with eyes down and hands raised in silence. But here we had 263 votes in favor, cheerfully, without even getting out of their comfy chairs. And they genuinely celebrated it!”, writes Yaroslav Zhelezniak, an MP from Holos, who also spoke against the bill.
According to public data, 31 MPs of the 9th convocation of the Verkhovna Rada are under suspicion by NABU—though that includes the late Illia Kyva and several MPs who have since resigned.
Does Zelensky still have a chance to reverse course?
At a briefing held immediately after the Rada vote, NABU Director Semen Kryvonos and SAPO Chief Prosecutor Oleksandr Klymenko explained the risks of implementing this law (they also sent official appeals to international partners) and addressed President Zelenskyy directly, asking him not to sign it. However, given the government’s strategy—which dismantled democracy in just two days—it’s clear that the head of state will not delay his decision and will approve it soon. I don’t know if Andrii Yermak will be sitting next to him at that moment, but the signature will definitely be Zelenskyy’s. As will the historical responsibility.
If President Volodymyr Zelenskyy takes this final step and signs the bill, we roll back ten years—to a corrupt, rotten state. No courts. No competitions. No international experts. No chance for justice.
There is a real risk of faltering in the war and of internal destabilization. Because our soldiers are not dying for this. And no matter how hard the Presidential Office works now with pro-government “influencers in pixelated uniforms,” begging them to support the “cleansing of NABU and SAPO from filth,” it has little chance of being understood by the military.
Plus, the EU’s bashful silence and reluctance to spoil relations with Zelenskyy does not mean they will accept us in our new authoritarian form. The Ukrainian people are shedding blood for European values, while Ukraine’s government is simultaneously destroying them. Quite the challenge for Europe, which still clings to the illusion that it can weather a global collapse from within a hut of twigs.
But we will survive—just as we did after February 24. Because the true support for any government can only be the people, not a handful of Yanukovych-era loyalists nurtured by the Presidential Office. So we allow ourselves one more prediction: after civil society, the media and the anti-corruption authorities, Zelenskyy himself will be next. Only fools with no sense of history, those around the president who have drawn him a roadmap to oblivion, can fail to understand this.
Ukraine is not Russia. Even if today, it felt like we had become her.